Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Blacksburg, VA

800 
WGUS71 KRNK 231850
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
250 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAC005-017-580-WVC025-232315-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160623T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BATH VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-ALLEGHANY VA-GREENBRIER WV-
250 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR 
BATH...ALLEGHANY AND SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF
COVINGTON...

AT 248 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN ACCORDING TO RADAR AND RAIN GAUGES. EMERGENCY
OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN EASTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY
AND IN COVINGTON VIRGINIA. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL STILL MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST...FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AND MAY GET WORSE.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA WILL CAUSE MUD SLIDES NEAR
STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION
AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALLEGHANY...
COVINGTON...
CLIFTON FORGE...
LEWISBURG...
AND WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS. 

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
TUCKAHOE RUN...
PAXTON BRANCH...
SULPHUR LICK RUN...
DRY RUN...
AND JIM DAVE RUN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 7951 3815 7953 3816 7944 3803 7951
      3788 7965 3785 7961 3776 7967 3780 7982
      3770 7992 3760 8015 3764 8026 3771 8034
      3769 8038 3772 8039 3769 8045 3770 8056
      3805 8026 3806 7996 3818 7992 3826 7981

$$

SK

537 
WGUS71 KRNK 232051
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
451 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

WVC025-232058-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160623T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENBRIER WV-
451 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE ORIGINAL FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENBRIER
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

HOWEVER IT HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A NEW FLASH FLOOD WARNING
EMERGENCY FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM EDT.  SEE THE LATEST
FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUANCE PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3822 7971 3818 7951 3815 7953 3816 7944
      3810 7949 3809 7948 3803 7951 3788 7965
      3785 7961 3776 7967 3780 7982 3770 7992
      3760 8015 3765 8026 3769 8029 3800 8000
      3810 7993 3812 7994 3818 7992 3826 7981

$$

VAC005-017-580-232315-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160623T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BATH VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-ALLEGHANY VA-
451 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR 
BATH AND ALLEGHANY COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF COVINGTON...

AT 448 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THAT HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE AREA. THREE TO FIVE INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN PARTS OF THE COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY
OCCURRING...INCLUDING MANY REPORTS FROM THE COVINGTON AREA.  A
LANDSLIDE WAS REPORTED CLOSING PITZERS RIDGE ROAD JUST NORTH OF
ROUTE 18 AT 400 PM EDT.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA WILL CAUSE MUD SLIDES NEAR
STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST OF ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION
AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COVINGTON...
CLIFTON FORGE...
HOT SPRINGS...
JORDAN MINES...
AND MILLBORO. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS HEADING SOUTHEAST OUT OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
TUCKAHOE RUN...
PAXTON BRANCH...
DRY RUN...
JIM DAVE RUN...
DUNLAP CREEK 
AND MARE RUN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 7971 3818 7951 3815 7953 3816 7944
      3810 7949 3809 7948 3803 7951 3788 7965
      3785 7961 3776 7967 3780 7982 3770 7992
      3760 8015 3765 8026 3769 8029 3800 8000
      3810 7993 3812 7994 3818 7992 3826 7981

$$

SK

593 
WGUS71 KRNK 232153
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
553 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAC005-017-580-232315-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160623T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BATH VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-ALLEGHANY VA-
553 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR 
BATH AND ALLEGHANY COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF COVINGTON...

AT 549 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
THAT HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE AREA. UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN SPOTS. FLASH FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING AND
WILL LIKELY WORSEN HAS HEAVY RAIN MOVES BACK ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF HOT SPRINGS. RAPID RISES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH DUNLAP CREEK ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT 13.5 FEET AND POTTS
CREEK LIKELY TO GO ABOVE ITS 9 FOOT FLOOD STAGE SOON. THE JACKSON
RIVER WAS ALSO RISING RAPIDLY IN COVINGTON.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE WARNED AREA WILL ALSO CAUSE MUD SLIDES
NEAR STEEP TERRAIN. THE MUD SLIDE CAN CONSIST OF
ROCK...MUD...VEGETATION AND OTHER LOOSE MATERIALS.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
COVINGTON...
CLIFTON FORGE...
HOT SPRINGS...
JORDAN MINES...
AND MILLBORO. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA ESPECIALLY ACROSS ALLEGHANY COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
TUCKAHOE RUN...
PAXTON BRANCH...
DRY RUN...
JIM DAVE RUN...
AND MARE RUN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 7971 3818 7951 3815 7953 3816 7944
      3810 7949 3809 7948 3803 7951 3788 7965
      3785 7961 3776 7967 3780 7982 3770 7992
      3760 8015 3765 8026 3769 8029 3800 8000
      3810 7993 3812 7994 3818 7992 3826 7981

$$

JH

011 
WGUS51 KRNK 232309
FFWRNK
VAC005-017-580-240515-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160624T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
709 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  BATH COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...
  THE CITY OF COVINGTON IN VIRGINIA...
  ALLEGHANY COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 115 AM EDT FRIDAY

* AT 701 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED
  HEAVY RAIN STILL FALLING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE TO FIVE
  INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. FLASH FLOODING
  INCLUDING LANDSLIDES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
  OFFICIALS AND SPOTTERS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL
  RATES ARE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS IS A
  LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  COVINGTON...
  CLIFTON FORGE...
  HOT SPRINGS...
  JORDAN MINES...
  AND MILLBORO. 

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WARNED AREA THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
TUCKAHOE RUN...
PAXTON BRANCH...
DRY RUN...
POTTS CREEK... 
DUNLAP CREEK... 
AND MARE RUN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 7971 3818 7951 3815 7953 3816 7944
      3810 7949 3809 7948 3803 7951 3788 7965
      3785 7961 3776 7967 3780 7982 3770 7992
      3760 8015 3765 8026 3769 8029 3800 8000
      3810 7993 3812 7994 3818 7992 3826 7981

$$

SK

275 
WGUS71 KRNK 240302
FFSRNK

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1102 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAC005-017-580-240308-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-160624T0515Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BATH VA-CITY OF COVINGTON VA-ALLEGHANY VA-
1102 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
BATH AND ALLEGHANY COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF COVINGTON IS CANCELLED...

HOWEVER...WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AREAL FLOODING ON LARGER
STREAMS AND RIVERS IN ALLEGHANY COUNTY IS ONGOING AND IN FACT
REMAINS VERY SERIOUS...THUS AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR ALLEGHANY COUNTY ONLY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR MAJOR FLOODING ON THE
JACKSON RIVER IS IN EFFECT ALEADY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3822 7971 3818 7951 3815 7953 3816 7944
      3810 7949 3809 7948 3803 7951 3788 7965
      3785 7961 3776 7967 3780 7982 3770 7992
      3760 8015 3765 8026 3769 8029 3800 8000
      3810 7993 3812 7994 3818 7992 3826 7981

$$

SK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1256 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move east out of the Ohio Valley this
afternoon, and then push off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight,
allowing a trailing cold front to drop south into the region.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact much
of the mid- Appalachian and mid- Atlantic region into tonight as
this system moves through the area. The front slides to the south
of the area Friday allowing drier high pressure to slowly build in
from the north by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Thursday...

Updated to include 3 additional counties to the flash flood watch
for the afternoon as well as extending out until 00z/8pm.

Supplemental 18z upper air launch in progress.

Leading edge of the MCS is now sailing across Southside VA and
may strengthen before exiting the area in the next hour. Main
concern then with new upstream development across West Va where
despite being working over, convection continues to be fed by
deeper instability to our west. This new area of shra/tsra also
likely to spill east/southeast along the 85h theta-e gradient
similar to the overnight system but likely farther north given
less expected organization. Latest guidance then keeps
redeveloping added bands of convection with back building nature
to our west closer to the residual surface front in the Ohio
Valley. Also appears could be additional coverage along the
current outflow espcly over southern/western areas that did not
get worked over this morning. However strong westerly flow aloft
seen off morning soundings, may tend to mix out areas along/east
of the Blue Ridge so later coverage tricky with several solutions
suggested by latest meso models. Thus for now will keep higher
pops north and west once current coverage exits and where guidance
ramps the CAPE values back up although may be delayed due to early
rainfall. Also lowered high temps over western/northern sections
with mostly upper 70s to low/mid 80s, while still pushing low 90s
southeast.

Previous discussion as of 335 AM EDT Thursday...

A warm front extending southeast from low pressure in the Ohio
valley will gradually lift northeast through the northeastern half
of the Blacksburg forecast area for the rest of tonight - mainly
along and north of a line extending from Lewisburg, WV to
Reidsville, NC. Despite good instability, the overall tropospheric
environment is characterized by a very warm and moist airmass with
marginal shear. As a result, expect that the primary weather
threat from any of the stronger storms for the rest of tonight will
be from locally heavy rainfall than from strong damaging winds or
large hail.

Considerable short-term high resolution model spread continues
with regard to evolution and movement of large mesoscale
convective complex in area of strong warm advection and forcing
moving southeast from out of the Ohio valley. This complex will
continue to track southeast along the lifting warm front toward
the Blacksburg forecast area for the rest of tonight, with a
trailing line of outflow driven convection on the southwestern
flanks of the system.

Arrival of the complex still appears to be around daybreak - not a
favorable time for severe weather, especially considering warm
temperatures aloft and a lack of a dry layer to help fuel strong
winds. Therefore, heavy rain with the passage of the complex through
mid-morning is most likely. Recent heavy rainfall over SE WV has
left the ground very wet in that area, so the existing Flash
Flood Watch through today certainly seems warranted. Elsewhere,
ground conditions not as moist, so may be able to ride out first
wave of convection without much, if any, flooding threat.

Bigger question relates to impact of outflow boundary from passage
of thunderstorm complex this morning. Best model consensus indicates
that old outflow will initially push south through much of the
forecast area before washing out/lifting north again during the
afternoon as southwest-westerly low level winds combining with
increasing insolation cause reestablishment of convergence zone
(due to either proximity of decaying outflow boundary and/or
increased differential heating along edge of deeper lingering
mid/high level cloud canopy) to serve as additional focus for
renewed shower/thunderstorm development.

Initially high freezing levels and wet bulb zero heights are
expected to lower as the day progresses, and thermodynamic
support should be more than sufficient to support strong to severe
thunderstorm development, mainly from wet microbursts and
associated damaging winds, as increasing low level shear, forcing,
and thermodynamics all contribute toward organized lift. The
lowering of wet bulb zero heights will also support an increasing
threat for larger hail in some of the more potent storms.

If storms orient in an east- west fashion aligned with mean flow,
then training of storms with heavy rain may occur, which in
addition to severe weather threat, may also warrant increased
concern for flash flooding in areas outside of the current watch
area. The need for an expansion of the existing watch will be
assessed later today after it becomes more clear where the old
outflow boundary resides following morning convection.

Expect to see primary axis of shower and thunderstorm activity
gradually push south through, and then south of the Blacksburg
forecast area on Thursday night as higher pressure begins to build
south toward the area. However, it will likely take most of the
night for the bulk of the precipitation to clear the forecast area,
and even then, some scattered activity is still possible by daybreak-
especially closer to the VA/NC state line.

Daytime high temperatures today will be somewhat problematic, and
highly influenced by the extent and longevity of cloud cover and the
depth of the cool outflow from the morning convective complex.
However, expect sufficient mixing and insolation by early-mid
afternoon before redevelopment of numerous showers/storms to boost
readings briefly back into the mid 70s-mid 80s in the mountains to
lower 90s near the VA/NC state line. With limited initial
cooling/drying on backside of cool front, lows Thursday night not
expected to fall much lower than the 60s in the mountains to
around 70F across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Thursday...

Models are pushing the surface cold front through the area and into
North Carolina Friday morning. However, the dew point front will lag
behind and not move across the region until Friday night. With
afternoon heating and a Theta-E ridge in play, there will remain a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop into Friday evening,
particularly across Southside Virginia and northern North Carolina. A
west to northwest flow may also limit shower activity, therefore
will only carry PoPs as high as 40 percent in the piedmont. The
front will sink farther south into the Carolinas Friday night
followed by a weak wedge of cooler air moving south across the Mid
Atlantic. This wedge will knock temperatures back down towards
normal over the weekend. The Theta-E ridge will linger over the
Carolinas and Ohio Valley over the weekend. Easterly upslope flow
may bring a shower or two to the Blue Ridge Saturday. The wedge will
begin to erode Sunday across southwest Virginia (Bluefield-
Richlands) which will increase the chances for scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Repeat scenario of the upper pattern seen in the past few weeks will
return by next week as a large 5h low slides east over the western
ridge and helps dig out another eastern trough. This should propel a
couple associated surface cold fronts through the region with the first
Monday, and another later Tuesday when somewhat drier/cooler air looks
to advect in. Ahead of these boundaries will see moisture quickly
return Sunday night and moreso on Monday when models show decent higher
pwats and subsequent more widespread showers/storms. Thus including
high chance to likely pops Monday. Deeper pwats may start to exit
Monday night into Tuesday but still enough residual low level moisture
to support widely scattered showers into Tuesday before the secondary
front crosses. Drier air follows the front Tuesday night into Wednesday
as weak high pressure builds in ahead of yet another impulse rounding
the base of the upper trough Wednesday night into Thursday. This may
drive a weak area of low pressure east along the residual front
resulting in another round of showers by day7. Temps look to stay near
seasonal norms for most of the period except perhaps a bit cooler by
the end of the week with more clouds/showers around.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR has returned to most locations outside of the Greenbrier
valley where training cells continue to result in MVFR to IFR in
heavier showers and storms. Expect this trend to continue to with
poor flying conditions around KLWB to KHSP and perhaps out to just
west of KLYH over the next few hours.

Provided added heating which has been slow to occur in the wake of
the early morning storm complex, expecting the redevelopment of at
least scattered shra/tsra this afternoon and evening across the
region. However exactly where and how widespread any added
coverage will be elsewhere remains uncertain, so keeping mostly a
vicinity mention for shra/tsra going with tempo groups where
closer to the current convective axis across the north. Should
finally see the front to the north dip south and gradually shove
deeper convection into southern areas by early this evening and
out of the area after midnight. Therefore cutting back to mostly
VFR cigs and without any convective mention overnight with areas
of dense fog possible espcly in the valleys where MVFR to LIFR
could occur.

Should be just north of the front on Friday although moisture will
be slow to completely exit espcly in the low levels that could
again fuel a few bands of shra/tsra in the afternoon. Otherwise
looking at becoming VFR most sections by mid/late morning once low
clouds/fog erode.

Extended discussion...

High pressure will try to build from the northeast on Saturday,
but there should be enough instability over the mountains for
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms during the weekend.
Coverage of these storms should increase by Monday before becoming
more isolated on Tuesday with the passage of another cold front.
Overall, expect periods of IFR/MVFR within the showers and
thunderstorms and also during potential early morning fog due to
increasing moisture at the ground.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flash flood watch now in effect into early this evening with the
inclusion of Rockbridge, Botetourt and Amherst counties. Added
storm complexes along with training bands could lead to more
widespread flash flooding given very low flash flood guidance
attm, and possible added 1 to 3 inches of rain in spots.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ007-019-
     020-023-024-035.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/WERT
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/MBS/PW/WERT
HYDROLOGY...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1222 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAZ007-019-020-023-024-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-241630-
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
1222 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>018-022-032>034-043>047-058-059-241630-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1222 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ADDED COMPLEXES OR BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1121 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      6 NE SHAWSVILLE         37.23N 80.21W
06/23/2016                   MONTGOMERY         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HISTORIC DR. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1131 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N HINTON              37.75N 80.91W
06/23/2016                   SUMMERS            WV   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG RTE 20 NORTH OF HINTON. TIME
            RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1140 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE SHAWSVILLE         37.23N 80.21W
06/23/2016                   MONTGOMERY         VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HISTORIC DR. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1143 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PIPESTEM                37.53N 80.97W
06/23/2016                   SUMMERS            WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN IN PIPESTEM AREA. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1145 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JUMPING BRANCH          37.65N 80.98W
06/23/2016                   SUMMERS            WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN IN THE JUMPING BRANCH AREA. TIME RADAR
            ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE HINTON            37.68N 80.85W
06/23/2016                   SUMMERS            WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ALONG ELK KNOB RD IN HINTON. TIME RADAR
            ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN