Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Blacksburg, VA

June 23, 20166 counties in Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 23, 2016, 2:31 PM EDT for 6 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 59 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jun 23, 2016, 2:31 PM EDT (18:31 UTC)
Expired
Jun 23, 2016, 3:30 PM EDT
In force
59 min
Issued by
NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Campbell County, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jun 23, 2:35 PM EDTHAIL 0.25Big Island, VATRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS PEA SIZED HAIL IN BIG ISLAND VIRGINIA.
Jun 23, 3:05 PM EDTHAIL 0.52 Se Forest, VA
Jun 23, 3:22 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG6 Ene Evington, VAPUBLIC REPORTS LARGE TREES DOWN BY YELLOW BRANCH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL NEAR EVINGTON VIRGINIA.
Jun 23, 3:22 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG6 Ene Evington, VAPUBLIC REPORTS OF LARGE TREES DOWN BY YELLOW BRANCH ELEMENTARY SCHOOL NEAR EVINGTON VIRGINIA.
Jun 23, 3:24 PM EDTHAIL 0.883 Wsw Rustburg, VAHAIL FELL ON CALOHAN ROAD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 51 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 29 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-06-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1051 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-06-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 211 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1051 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
890 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
211 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
181 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.1
Supercell composite
5.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

887 
WUUS51 KRNK 231831
SVRRNK
VAC009-011-019-023-031-680-231930-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0114.160623T1831Z-160623T1930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
231 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN APPOMATTOX COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN AMHERST COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...
  CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN BOTETOURT COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...
  THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG IN VIRGINIA...
  BEDFORD COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 231 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM BIG ISLAND TO NEAR LITHIA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40
  MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYNCHBURG...
  BEDFORD...
  APPOMATTOX...
  RUSTBURG...
  AND HUDDLESTON. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS 
LIBERTY UNIVERSITY...THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL...AND LYNCHBURG
AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 7868 3711 7955 3746 7987 3754 7952
      3753 7950 3756 7946 3758 7936
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 295DEG 34KT 3754 7937 3746 7978 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DS
4 follow-up statements
763 
WWUS51 KRNK 231849
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
249 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAC023-231859-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160623T1930Z/
BOTETOURT VA-
249 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOTETOURT COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3729 7868 3711 7955 3728 7967 3738 7965
      3747 7957 3754 7927
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 301DEG 32KT 3749 7931 3736 7954 

$$

VAC009-011-019-031-680-231930-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160623T1930Z/
APPOMATTOX VA-AMHERST VA-CAMPBELL VA-CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-BEDFORD VA-
249 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN APPOMATTOX...SOUTHWESTERN AMHERST...CENTRAL CAMPBELL
AND BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG...

AT 249 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM COLEMAN FALLS TO BEDFORD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
BEDFORD...
APPOMATTOX...
RUSTBURG...
AND HUDDLESTON. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS 
LIBERTY UNIVERSITY...THE NATIONAL D DAY MEMORIAL...AND LYNCHBURG
AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT
STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3729 7868 3711 7955 3728 7967 3738 7965
      3747 7957 3754 7927
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 301DEG 32KT 3749 7931 3736 7954 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DS
785 
WWUS51 KRNK 231900
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAC009-011-231909-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160623T1930Z/
APPOMATTOX VA-AMHERST VA-
300 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN APPOMATTOX AND
SOUTHWESTERN AMHERST COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3713 7944 3729 7952 3738 7950 3742 7941
      3745 7930 3741 7913 3740 7912 3740 7911
      3737 7898 3732 7895 3729 7895 3728 7893
      3725 7892 3725 7889
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 303DEG 40KT 3733 7932 

$$

VAC019-031-680-231930-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160623T1930Z/
CAMPBELL VA-CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-BEDFORD VA-
300 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL CAMPBELL AND SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY
OF LYNCHBURG...

AT 259 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FOREST...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
BEDFORD...
CONCORD...
FOREST...
AND EVINGTON. 

THIS INCLUDES LIBERTY UNIVERSITY AND LYNCHBURG AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT
STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3713 7944 3729 7952 3738 7950 3742 7941
      3745 7930 3741 7913 3740 7912 3740 7911
      3737 7898 3732 7895 3729 7895 3728 7893
      3725 7892 3725 7889
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 303DEG 40KT 3733 7932 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

DS
404 
WWUS51 KRNK 231919
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
319 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAC019-680-231928-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160623T1930Z/
CITY OF LYNCHBURG VA-BEDFORD VA-
319 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR  SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY
AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG IS CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3730 7929 3732 7920 3734 7909 3723 7898
      3717 7926
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 305DEG 26KT 3725 7917 

$$

VAC031-231930-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160623T1930Z/
CAMPBELL VA-
319 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTY...

AT 318 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSTBURG...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSTBURG...
AND TIMBERLAKE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT
STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3730 7929 3732 7920 3734 7909 3723 7898
      3717 7926
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 305DEG 26KT 3725 7917 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

DS
103 
WWUS51 KRNK 231930
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAC031-231939-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0114.000000T0000Z-160623T1930Z/
CAMPBELL VA-
330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
CENTRAL CAMPBELL COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM EDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

BE ADVISED THAT...WHILE THIS WARNING HAS ENDED...A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST CAMPBELL COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3730 7929 3732 7920 3734 7909 3723 7898
      3717 7926
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 295DEG 34KT 3725 7917 

$$

DS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 23, 12:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 23, 12:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1256 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move east out of the Ohio Valley this
afternoon, and then push off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight,
allowing a trailing cold front to drop south into the region.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact much
of the mid- Appalachian and mid- Atlantic region into tonight as
this system moves through the area. The front slides to the south
of the area Friday allowing drier high pressure to slowly build in
from the north by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1240 PM EDT Thursday...

Updated to include 3 additional counties to the flash flood watch
for the afternoon as well as extending out until 00z/8pm.

Supplemental 18z upper air launch in progress.

Leading edge of the MCS is now sailing across Southside VA and
may strengthen before exiting the area in the next hour. Main
concern then with new upstream development across West Va where
despite being working over, convection continues to be fed by
deeper instability to our west. This new area of shra/tsra also
likely to spill east/southeast along the 85h theta-e gradient
similar to the overnight system but likely farther north given
less expected organization. Latest guidance then keeps
redeveloping added bands of convection with back building nature
to our west closer to the residual surface front in the Ohio
Valley. Also appears could be additional coverage along the
current outflow espcly over southern/western areas that did not
get worked over this morning. However strong westerly flow aloft
seen off morning soundings, may tend to mix out areas along/east
of the Blue Ridge so later coverage tricky with several solutions
suggested by latest meso models. Thus for now will keep higher
pops north and west once current coverage exits and where guidance
ramps the CAPE values back up although may be delayed due to early
rainfall. Also lowered high temps over western/northern sections
with mostly upper 70s to low/mid 80s, while still pushing low 90s
southeast.

Previous discussion as of 335 AM EDT Thursday...

A warm front extending southeast from low pressure in the Ohio
valley will gradually lift northeast through the northeastern half
of the Blacksburg forecast area for the rest of tonight - mainly
along and north of a line extending from Lewisburg, WV to
Reidsville, NC. Despite good instability, the overall tropospheric
environment is characterized by a very warm and moist airmass with
marginal shear. As a result, expect that the primary weather
threat from any of the stronger storms for the rest of tonight will
be from locally heavy rainfall than from strong damaging winds or
large hail.

Considerable short-term high resolution model spread continues
with regard to evolution and movement of large mesoscale
convective complex in area of strong warm advection and forcing
moving southeast from out of the Ohio valley. This complex will
continue to track southeast along the lifting warm front toward
the Blacksburg forecast area for the rest of tonight, with a
trailing line of outflow driven convection on the southwestern
flanks of the system.

Arrival of the complex still appears to be around daybreak - not a
favorable time for severe weather, especially considering warm
temperatures aloft and a lack of a dry layer to help fuel strong
winds. Therefore, heavy rain with the passage of the complex through
mid-morning is most likely. Recent heavy rainfall over SE WV has
left the ground very wet in that area, so the existing Flash
Flood Watch through today certainly seems warranted. Elsewhere,
ground conditions not as moist, so may be able to ride out first
wave of convection without much, if any, flooding threat.

Bigger question relates to impact of outflow boundary from passage
of thunderstorm complex this morning. Best model consensus indicates
that old outflow will initially push south through much of the
forecast area before washing out/lifting north again during the
afternoon as southwest-westerly low level winds combining with
increasing insolation cause reestablishment of convergence zone
(due to either proximity of decaying outflow boundary and/or
increased differential heating along edge of deeper lingering
mid/high level cloud canopy) to serve as additional focus for
renewed shower/thunderstorm development.

Initially high freezing levels and wet bulb zero heights are
expected to lower as the day progresses, and thermodynamic
support should be more than sufficient to support strong to severe
thunderstorm development, mainly from wet microbursts and
associated damaging winds, as increasing low level shear, forcing,
and thermodynamics all contribute toward organized lift. The
lowering of wet bulb zero heights will also support an increasing
threat for larger hail in some of the more potent storms.

If storms orient in an east- west fashion aligned with mean flow,
then training of storms with heavy rain may occur, which in
addition to severe weather threat, may also warrant increased
concern for flash flooding in areas outside of the current watch
area. The need for an expansion of the existing watch will be
assessed later today after it becomes more clear where the old
outflow boundary resides following morning convection.

Expect to see primary axis of shower and thunderstorm activity
gradually push south through, and then south of the Blacksburg
forecast area on Thursday night as higher pressure begins to build
south toward the area. However, it will likely take most of the
night for the bulk of the precipitation to clear the forecast area,
and even then, some scattered activity is still possible by daybreak-
especially closer to the VA/NC state line.

Daytime high temperatures today will be somewhat problematic, and
highly influenced by the extent and longevity of cloud cover and the
depth of the cool outflow from the morning convective complex.
However, expect sufficient mixing and insolation by early-mid
afternoon before redevelopment of numerous showers/storms to boost
readings briefly back into the mid 70s-mid 80s in the mountains to
lower 90s near the VA/NC state line. With limited initial
cooling/drying on backside of cool front, lows Thursday night not
expected to fall much lower than the 60s in the mountains to
around 70F across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Thursday...

Models are pushing the surface cold front through the area and into
North Carolina Friday morning. However, the dew point front will lag
behind and not move across the region until Friday night. With
afternoon heating and a Theta-E ridge in play, there will remain a
chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop into Friday evening,
particularly across Southside Virginia and northern North Carolina. A
west to northwest flow may also limit shower activity, therefore
will only carry PoPs as high as 40 percent in the piedmont. The
front will sink farther south into the Carolinas Friday night
followed by a weak wedge of cooler air moving south across the Mid
Atlantic. This wedge will knock temperatures back down towards
normal over the weekend. The Theta-E ridge will linger over the
Carolinas and Ohio Valley over the weekend. Easterly upslope flow
may bring a shower or two to the Blue Ridge Saturday. The wedge will
begin to erode Sunday across southwest Virginia (Bluefield-
Richlands) which will increase the chances for scattered afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Repeat scenario of the upper pattern seen in the past few weeks will
return by next week as a large 5h low slides east over the western
ridge and helps dig out another eastern trough. This should propel a
couple associated surface cold fronts through the region with the first
Monday, and another later Tuesday when somewhat drier/cooler air looks
to advect in. Ahead of these boundaries will see moisture quickly
return Sunday night and moreso on Monday when models show decent higher
pwats and subsequent more widespread showers/storms. Thus including
high chance to likely pops Monday. Deeper pwats may start to exit
Monday night into Tuesday but still enough residual low level moisture
to support widely scattered showers into Tuesday before the secondary
front crosses. Drier air follows the front Tuesday night into Wednesday
as weak high pressure builds in ahead of yet another impulse rounding
the base of the upper trough Wednesday night into Thursday. This may
drive a weak area of low pressure east along the residual front
resulting in another round of showers by day7. Temps look to stay near
seasonal norms for most of the period except perhaps a bit cooler by
the end of the week with more clouds/showers around.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Thursday...

VFR has returned to most locations outside of the Greenbrier
valley where training cells continue to result in MVFR to IFR in
heavier showers and storms. Expect this trend to continue to with
poor flying conditions around KLWB to KHSP and perhaps out to just
west of KLYH over the next few hours.

Provided added heating which has been slow to occur in the wake of
the early morning storm complex, expecting the redevelopment of at
least scattered shra/tsra this afternoon and evening across the
region. However exactly where and how widespread any added
coverage will be elsewhere remains uncertain, so keeping mostly a
vicinity mention for shra/tsra going with tempo groups where
closer to the current convective axis across the north. Should
finally see the front to the north dip south and gradually shove
deeper convection into southern areas by early this evening and
out of the area after midnight. Therefore cutting back to mostly
VFR cigs and without any convective mention overnight with areas
of dense fog possible espcly in the valleys where MVFR to LIFR
could occur.

Should be just north of the front on Friday although moisture will
be slow to completely exit espcly in the low levels that could
again fuel a few bands of shra/tsra in the afternoon. Otherwise
looking at becoming VFR most sections by mid/late morning once low
clouds/fog erode.

Extended discussion...

High pressure will try to build from the northeast on Saturday,
but there should be enough instability over the mountains for
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms during the weekend.
Coverage of these storms should increase by Monday before becoming
more isolated on Tuesday with the passage of another cold front.
Overall, expect periods of IFR/MVFR within the showers and
thunderstorms and also during potential early morning fog due to
increasing moisture at the ground.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flash flood watch now in effect into early this evening with the
inclusion of Rockbridge, Botetourt and Amherst counties. Added
storm complexes along with training bands could lead to more
widespread flash flooding given very low flash flood guidance
attm, and possible added 1 to 3 inches of rain in spots.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ007-019-
     020-023-024-035.
NC...None.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JH/WERT
NEAR TERM...JH/WERT
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/MBS/PW/WERT
HYDROLOGY...JH
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 23, 12:22 PM EDT, 2 hours 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1222 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAZ007-019-020-023-024-035-WVZ042>044-507-508-241630-
TAZEWELL-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
1222 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009>018-022-032>034-043>047-058-059-241630-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-
FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1222 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ADDED COMPLEXES OR BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO OR REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS...MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 23, 11:49 AM EDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1149 AM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE HINTON            37.68N 80.85W
06/23/2016                   SUMMERS            WV   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWN ALONG ELK KNOB RD IN HINTON. TIME RADAR
            ESTIMATED.

&&

JRUCKMAN
Special weather statement, Jun 23, 1:22 PM EDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
122 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

VAZ018>020-023-024-WVZ044-507-508-231745-
CRAIG-ROCKBRIDGE-BATH-BOTETOURT-ALLEGHANY-EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN
GREENBRIER-MONROE-
122 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHEASTERN CRAIG...SOUTHWESTERN BATH...WEST CENTRAL ROCKBRIDGE...
CITY OF COVINGTON...BOTETOURT...ALLEGHANY...SOUTHWESTERN GREENBRIER
AND NORTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

AT 122 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR NATURAL WELL TO NEAR JORDAN MINES TO NEAR
RAINELLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALLEGHANY...
COVINGTON...
CLIFTON FORGE...
LEWISBURG...
AND WHITE SULPHUR SPRINGS.

THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3772 7953 3745 7978 3762 8049 3795 8081
      3798 8077 3777 8018 3803 7997
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 311DEG 44KT 3794 7994 3775 8014 3790 8076

DS
Local storm report, Jun 23, 1:33 PM EDT, 58 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW QUINWOOD          38.03N 80.73W
06/23/2016                   GREENBRIER         WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 20 NEARLY IMPASSABLE DUE TO DEBRIS IN ROAD FROM
            FLASH FLOOD.

&&

SK
Local storm report, Jun 23, 1:35 PM EDT, 56 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
135 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N RUPERT              37.96N 80.68W
06/23/2016                   GREENBRIER         WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROUTE 60 CLOSED IN RUPERT DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

SK
Local storm report, Jun 23, 1:52 PM EDT, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
152 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE RENICK             37.99N 80.36W
06/23/2016                   GREENBRIER         WV   PUBLIC

            HOUSE FLOODED IN RENICK AND ONE FOOT DEEP FAST-MOVING
            WATER CARRYING PROPANE TANK FLOATING AWAY.

&&

SK
Local storm report, Jun 23, 1:54 PM EDT, 37 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
154 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COVINGTON CITY          37.78N 79.98W
06/23/2016                   CITY OF COVINGTON  VA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS SEVERAL ROADS AND UNDERPASSES
            CLOSED DUE TO SEVERAL FEET OF MOVING WATER THROUGHOUT THE
            CITY. COMBINATION OF POOR DRAINAGE AND QUICKLY RISING
            STREAMS AND CREEKS.

&&

JMORROW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 23, 4:50 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKAmherst40 min
Jun 23, 5:24 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKBuckingham66 min
Jun 23, 5:29 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBuckingham46 min
Jun 23, 6:39 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKAlleghany, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista and 2 more81 min
Jun 23, 8:33 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany, Bath, Craig, City of Covington57 min
Jun 23, 8:43 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKGiles47 min
Jun 23, 8:50 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBotetourt, Roanoke, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington, City of Roanoke and 1 more40 min
Jun 23, 8:57 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKGiles, Montgomery, Roanoke, City of Radford48 min
Jun 23, 8:58 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKBland, Giles6 hr
Jun 23, 9:16 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKBedford, Campbell, Franklin59 min
Jun 23, 9:26 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKFloyd49 min
Jun 23, 9:54 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCharlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania, City of Danville66 min
Jun 23, 1:18 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKAlleghany, Bath, City of Covington10 hr
Jun 23, 1:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKAlleghany, Botetourt, City of Covington23 min
Jun 23, 1:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAlleghany, Amherst, Bath, Bedford, Botetourt, Craig and 4 more54 min
Jun 23, 2:33 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKAlleghany, City of Covington27 min
Jun 23, 3:02 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKAlleghany, City of Covington28 min
Jun 23, 3:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCampbell, Charlotte, Halifax54 min
Jun 23, 3:30 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKBotetourt6 hr
Jun 23, 3:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAppomattox, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Rockbridge, City of Lynchburg47 min
Jun 23, 4:14 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBotetourt, Craig, Roanoke39 min
Jun 23, 4:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKBath32 min
Jun 23, 4:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCampbell, Charlotte, Halifax45 min
Jun 23, 5:00 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKCity of Lynchburg30 min
Jun 23, 5:01 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKRockbridge29 min
Jun 23, 5:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCampbell, Charlotte52 min
Jun 23, 5:25 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKAlleghany35 min
Jun 23, 5:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCharlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania48 min
Jun 23, 5:34 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKRockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington6 hr
Jun 23, 5:40 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKBedford35 min
Jun 23, 5:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCharlotte, Halifax44 min
Jun 23, 5:58 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg62 min
Jun 23, 6:01 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKBotetourt, Craig, City of Salem29 min
Jun 23, 6:09 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRNKAlleghany, City of Covington28 hr
Jun 23, 6:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKHalifax, Pittsylvania59 min
Jun 23, 6:36 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningRNKCampbell, Charlotte, City of Lynchburg6 hr
Jun 23, 6:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCampbell, Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania55 min
Jun 23, 6:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKGiles38 min
Jun 23, 7:00 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKHalifax16 min
Jun 23, 7:17 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKHalifax18 min
Jun 23, 7:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKHalifax, Pittsylvania57 min
Jun 23, 7:24 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRNKBotetourt27 hr
Jun 23, 7:24 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningRNKBotetourt31 hr
Jun 23, 7:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCraig, Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Roanoke, City of Radford45 min
Jun 23, 7:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Giles, Tazewell42 min
Jun 23, 7:48 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKHalifax42 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2016Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.