Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
745 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent upper level low will stall over the Cumberland Plateau in
eastern Tennessee and Kentucky today and Friday, then retrograde north
through the Ohio valley and lower Great Lakes this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 445 AM Thursday...

A busy midnight shift here in central NC, one which began with a
severe thunderstorm watch and transitioned into a 100-year rainfall
event (ongoing at ~09Z) across portions of the Sandhills (i.e.
Hoke/Cumberland/Harnett counties) where as much as 5-8" of rain has
fallen over the past 8-12 hours. As such, the forecast discussion
this morning will be brief. Several SW-NE oriented lines of
convection developed over central NC yesterday afternoon/evening in
assoc/w moderate diurnal destabilization, low-level convergence
attendant a pre-frontal trough, and diffluent flow aloft downstream
of a potent upper level low. During the overnight period, rich low-
level moisture assoc/w southerly flow in advance of the approaching
cold front has maintained sufficient nocturnal instability for
convection to persist, resulting in significant rainfall and
/potentially life-threatening/ flooding across portions of Harnett,
Hoke and Cumberland counties this morning.

Although the cold front may make some slow eastward progress into
the area today, the parent upper level low will cut-off /stall/ over
the TN valley this aft/eve, and additional eastward progress of the
front is unlikely thereafter. As a result, expect a good chance of
convection again this aft/eve into tonight. A few severe storms
cannot be ruled out, and an isolated flash flood potential will
persist. -Vincent

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 445 AM Thursday...

On Friday, expect conditions similar to Thursday with the upper
level low stalled over the Cumberland Plateau and the attendant cold
front stalled over central NC. -Vincent

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 440 AM Thursday...

Stubborn upper level low over the Southern Ohio valley will lift
slowly north,  back over the Great Lakes through the weekend. At the
surface, the lingering orphaned surface front will dissipate across
the area.

With Central NC on the eastern periphery of the deep cyclonic flow
and the back-edge of the deeper moisture plume (PWATS
~1.5")lingering over the coastal plain of NC, we'll continue to see
a threat of mainly diurnal isolated to widely scattered showers
Saturday and Sunday, diminishing in coverage with each passing day.
Temperatures will continue to run slightly above normal with highs
ranging from upper 70s north to lower 80s south.

The closed low over the Great Lakes will finally open up and weaken
as it finally ejects eastward, moving off the New England Coast
Monday and into Tuesday. In it's wake, sfc high pressure building
east and south down the Atlantic Seaboard will bring cooler, more
seasonable temperatures to the area by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Large uncertainty looms for the latter half of the upcoming work
week with respect to Tropical Storm Matthew. The NHC official
forecast has Matthew near Eastern Cuba Monday evening, with
questions as to whether Matthew will get picked up and directed
northward by an upper level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. Stay
tune and check with the National Hurricane Center for the latest on
Matthew. Users are reminded that the average NHC track errors at
days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles, respectively.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 745 AM Thursday...

Slow moving band of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move
east this morning and will impact KFAY and KRWI with Sub-VFR
conditions in heavy rain. Convective coverage and intensity should
gradually decrease this morning. In addition, the low (LIFR) stratus
is expected to lift and scatter to VFR with diurnal heating between
15-18z Thu.

That heating, in conjunction with lift supplied by a slow-moving
wave of low pressure and associated frontal zone, will also cause
showers and storms to re-develop by mid afternoon and linger into
the evening.

Outlook: Moist low-level air will continue to support early morning stratus/fog
Friday morning and possibly again Saturday morning. Otherwise,
Drier air is finally expected to filter into the region on
Friday, leading to improved aviation conditions through the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Vincent
NEAR TERM...Vincent
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
521 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-300930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
521 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS SLOWLY
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
434 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ROCKFISH                34.98N  79.07W
09/29/2016                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED IN ROCKFISH AND OTHER AREAS
            THROUGHOUT HOKE COUNTY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600678

VINCENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
436 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SE DERBY              35.11N 79.61W
09/29/2016                   RICHMOND           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            THE FIRE DEPARTMENT HAS BEEN DISPATCHED TO A
            100-150 FT STRETCH OF DERBY RD. THAT IS
            COMPLETELY UNDER WATER, NEAR GOLD LEAF FARM
            RD. .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
441 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NNE WHISPERING PINES  35.27N 79.37W
09/29/2016                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            LAKEVIEW DR. AT THAGARD LN. HAS BEEN CLOSED
            DUE TO HIGH WATER. .

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
503 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSW TIMBERLAKE        35.25N 78.97W
09/29/2016                   HARNETT            NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            10 TO 15 ROADS WERE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            IN THE ANDERSON CREEK AREA. .

&&

CBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
637 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      8 ESE VASS              35.20N 79.16W
09/29/2016                   MOORE              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            NC HIGHWAY 690 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM
            MCGILL CROSS STREET TO THE CUMBERLAND COUNTY
            LINE.

&&

CBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
708 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE FAYETTEVILLE       35.06N  78.88W
09/29/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CROSS CREEK IN FAYETTEVILLE HAS OVERFLOWED ITS BANKS
            AND WATER HAS BEGUN TO INUNDATE NEARBY AREAS... SUCH AS
            RAY AVENUE WHERE SEVERAL FEET OF WATER IS CURRENTLY
            FLOWING SWIFTLY ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1600679

VINCENT