Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Raleigh, NC

321 
WGUS72 KRAH 290817
FFSRAH

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
417 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

NCC007-105-290822-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-160929T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ANSON NC-LEE NC-
417 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ANSON AND LEE COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

THE HEAVY RAIN AND THREAT OF FLOODING HAS ENDED. 

LAT...LON 3481 7992 3490 7985 3498 7987 3501 7990
      3504 7988 3508 7991 3518 7973 3516 7962
      3522 7966 3552 7936 3550 7934 3547 7936
      3544 7933 3543 7933 3540 7929 3535 7927
      3531 7919 3540 7909 3491 7917 3481 7976

$$

NCC085-093-125-153-165-290845-
/O.CON.KRAH.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-160929T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARNETT NC-MOORE NC-HOKE NC-SCOTLAND NC-RICHMOND NC-
417 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN HARNETT...MOORE...HOKE...NORTHERN SCOTLAND AND RICHMOND
COUNTIES...

AT 412 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN PINES...ROCKINGHAM...RAEFORD...CARTHAGE...PINEHURST...
HAMLET...ABERDEEN...HOFFMAN...WHISPERING PINES AND PINEBLUFF.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLEACROSS NORTHEASTERN SCOTLAND...HOKE...AND HARNETT COUNTY ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA. ELSEWHERE...LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH HIGH WATER REMAINS ON NUMEROUS ROADS
THROUGHOUT THE WARNED AREA. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF
CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS...LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. MANY
ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS IN THE AREA WILL QUICKLY FLOOD. WHEN
ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS...TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 7992 3490 7985 3498 7987 3501 7990
      3504 7988 3508 7991 3518 7973 3516 7962
      3522 7966 3552 7936 3550 7934 3547 7936
      3544 7933 3543 7933 3540 7929 3535 7927
      3531 7919 3540 7909 3491 7917 3481 7976

$$

26

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
145 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level low over the Great Lakes will drift southward
through the Ohio valley tonight, stall over eastern Tennessee and
Kentucky Thursday and Friday, then move back north through the Ohio
valley and lower Great Lakes this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 935 PM Wednesday...

Severe thunderstorm watch will expire at 1000 PM...

Localized flash flooding continues a threat.

We will allow the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to expire at 1000 PM.
Parameters indicate stabilizing of the boundary layer while large
scale lift arrives from the west. Additional severe threat should be
localized and not widespread. However, the threat of additional
flash flooding is increasing as training of storms continues in
favored areas.

Two areas of strong to severe thunderstorms continue through our
region. One line was located SW to NE through the southern Piedmont
into the Sandhills. The other was located from near Charlotte NE
through the Triad region.

Both of these lines have been problematic with flash flooding around
or north of Fayetteville into Harnett County, and over Greensboro.
Large hail has been the main severe weather hazard with both lines.

It appears that the low level jet will increase with strong surface
moisture convergence into central NC overnight. The two distinct
lines of storms may merge into one line toward late evening or just
after midnight. This would place the main severe and flash flood
threats from the Triad to the Triangle overnight.

Some areas have already had 1 to 3 inches of rain with locally 4
inches in Harnett and NW Cumberland Counties. The Triad is currently
in line for additional very heavy rain with additional flash
flooding appearing likely, especially east of Winston-Salem, with
Greensboro to Burlington targeted at the moment.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 PM Wednesday...

Additional showers and storms with training moderate to heavy
rain remains likely over Central NC Thu, with a gradual shift to
the ENE on Fri.

The powerful mid level low will continue to sit and spin over KY on
Thu before drifting/wobbling slightly northward to IN on Fri, with
lobes of DPVA sweeping through western and central NC, along/atop
the very slow-moving north-south oriented cold/occluded surface
frontal zone. PW values remain elevated (over 1.5") over all but the
far west Thu, shifting to east of I-95 Fri, beneath nearly
continuous bands of pronounced upper divergence. The WRF-ARW/NMM
both start the day Thu with a band of convection bisecting the
forecast area, drifting slowly eastward through the far eastern
Piedmont and Coastal Plain through Fri, filling in with better
coverage with time, with a cell motion that presents a threat for
training and resultant localized flooding. Will retain, with minor
tweaks, the overall pattern of the earlier forecast, with lower
chance pops west and high pops in the central/eastern CWA Thu,
trending lower WSW to ENE through Fri but remaining high in the far
eastern/NE forecast area Fri, tapering off further Fri night.

Temps both days will be held down by clouds/precip in the east and
by lowering post-front thicknesses in the western CWA. Highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s Thu and in the mid 70s to lower 80s Fri,
still slightly above seasonal normals. Lows 60-68 Thu night and 54-
65 Fri night. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
As of 320 PM Wednesday...

A few showers are likely to linger Sat into Sun in the eastern CWA,
along and east of the frontal zone, but otherwise this period
appears mostly dry. The large mid-upper low centered over IN early
Sat will drift across lower MI and slowly fill through Sun before
being drawn across the St. Lawrence Valley and Northeast states by a
shortwave trough rotating around a northern Atlantic polar vortex.
This, in conjunction with a large longwave trough shifting onto the
West Coast and over the western CONUS, will gradually build ridging
over the eastern CONUS heading into early next week. The surface
front over the East will continue to ease eastward and wash out with
a weakening low level wind field fostering frontolysis. A few mainly
afternoon showers are possible along this diffuse frontal zone over
the far eastern counties of NC early next week, but the PW will be
quite low elsewhere with a lack of instability, and will keep the
forecast mostly dry. Temps should hold a bit above normal through
the period, following thickness trends, with highs mostly in the
upper 70s and lower 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Uncertainty grows during the middle of next week, with a lot of
questions regarding the fate of what is now Tropical Storm Matthew,
located north of Venezuela this afternoon. However, at this time, it
appears that it will still be far from NC through Wed. Check with
the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Matthew. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM Thursday...

The two distinct bands of showers and thunderstorms across Central NC are
currently in the process of merging into one broader band across the central
Piedmont and Sandhills. KRDU and KFAY will be the most impacted terminals, with
KRWI to a lesser extent with Sub-VFR conditions in heavy rain along with the
potential for gusty winds of 25 to 30 kts. Convective coverage and intensity
should gradually decrease towards daybreak.

In addition, a blanket of low (LIFR) stratus is expected to redevelop mainly
over the Piedmont (INT/GSO) late tonight, before lifting and scattering to VFR
with diurnal heating between 13-16Z Thu. That heating, in
conjunction with lift supplied by a slow-moving wave of low pressure
and associated frontal zone, will also cause showers and storms to
re-develop by mid afternoon and linger into the evening.

Outlook: Moist low-level air will continue to support early morning stratus/fog
Friday morning and possibly again Saturday morning. Otherwise,
Drier air is finally expected to filter into the region on
Friday, leading to improved aviation conditions through the weekend.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...CBL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
958 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-300200-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
958 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE
TRAINING OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
937 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            3 SSW ROCKFISH          34.95N 79.09W
09/28/2016                   HOKE               NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING REPORTED NEAR HOMES ON MCCLEAN LOOP
            RD AND ARABIA RD.

&&

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     FLOOD            1 NNE BURLINGTON        36.10N 79.44W
09/28/2016                   ALAMANCE           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND POLICE DEPARTMENT
            REPORTED CONTINUED HIGH WATER WITH SOME ROAD
            CLOSURES IN BURLINGTON.

&&

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1023 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     FLOOD            2 SE FAYETTEVILLE       35.06N 78.88W
09/28/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF FLOODING AROUND
            FAYETTEVILLE, INCLUDING AT CROSS CREEK MALL,
            BARTONS LANDING, AND CLIFFDALE. MCCORMICK
            BRIDGE IMPASSABLE.

&&

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1024 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     FLOOD            3 NE GODWIN             35.24N 78.63W
09/28/2016                   CUMBERLAND         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            FLOODING REPORTED ON I-95 NEAR THE HARNETT
            CO LINE. .

&&

SEC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1056 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLOOD            1 E PLEASANT GROVE      36.19N 79.31W
09/28/2016                   ALAMANCE           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            VIEWER REPORTED 14 FOOT HOLE ON TANGLE RIDGE
            TRAIL CAUSED BY FLOODING.

&&

NWS RALEIGH NC
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1129 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

NCZ008-024>026-040-041-290415-
WAKE  NC-DURHAM  NC-ORANGE  NC-CHATHAM  NC-FRANKLIN  NC-
GRANVILLE  NC-
1129 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WAKE...
DURHAM...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...EASTERN CHATHAM...WEST CENTRAL
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHERN GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 AM EDT...

AT 1128 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SILER CITY TO NEAR
GOLDSTON TO CARTHAGE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RALEIGH...DURHAM...CARY...CHAPEL HILL...OXFORD...CREEDMOOR...
WAKE FOREST...GARNER...CARRBORO AND FUQUAY-VARINA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING
AREAS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7851 3618 7851 3618 7849 3613 7848
      3592 7840 3567 7851 3552 7870 3558 7891
      3552 7897 3554 7899 3555 7903 3561 7907
      3575 7903 3596 7909 3641 7855
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 230DEG 31KT 3570 7936 3556 7933 3534 7941

26