Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
110 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

The old boundary left over from last night's convection runs from
near KMVN to just south of KOWB and is likely to be a focus for
thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, a line of thunderstorms
moving into the KSTL metro area will push eastward into northern
portions of southern Illinois and eventually intersect the old
boundary. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 00Z
for our northern 8 counties of southern Illinois.

The flow aloft is rather weak, so individual storms should be
pulsy, but the amount of instability available may allow them to
briefly reach severe levels with damaging winds and large hail
possible. However, the line moving out of KSTL may develop a cold
pool, which could lead to a larger-scale damaging wind threat in
the Watch area.

After sunset, loss of diurnal fuel and warm sector lifting north,
should see more widely scattered/less amplified cells...at least
until late tonight-early tmrw, when cold front makes approach.
Pinwheel jet energy will interact during daytime hours tmrw, and
reinitiate storm/svr chances, slgt risk shifting eastward across
remainder of fa.

Cold fropa occurs tmrw evening, and convection chances end with
it. Thu night thru Fri then looking cooler/drier per post frontal
airmass. Warm/soupy before.

Troffing Ohio valley long wave will bring a smallish
chance of pcpn in again Friday night, as another piece of energy
rounds base of trof. While instability parameters and moisture are
lacking, nw flow/upper pva inducement may lead to a clap of
thunder or at least its mention in forecast per collab pic.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Long term pattern transition will bring some changes to the
extended. Surface High pressure under nwlys aloft yield a still
cooler/drier Saturday. But long range modeling of height falls out
west, combined with transitioning Great Lakes Low (pattern
change), mean upper flow will be backing and becoming increasingly
active with time for Mid Ms Valley.

We'll see pops enter forecast southwest to northeast by Sunday,
though we'll lay off thunder mention til better/deeper
destabilization occurs Sunday night into Monday.

Monday-Wednesday then looks like an active/wet pattern, as mean
southwest U.S. trof shoots pieces of energy across southern Plains
and lower to mid Ms valley with time. Pops ramp up to high chance
or likely cats thru this period with several periods of
showers/storms and potentially decent QPF setting up in addition
to strong/possibly svr storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016

Conditional forecast of Thunderstorms is best at KEVV and KOWB,
but not so much so farther west. A cold front will approach the
area near the end of the forecast, and there is a fairly strong
signal for IFR/LIFR ceilings to develop ahead of it, possibly with
some fog as well.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
340 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE I-64
CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORRENTIAL
RAINS...AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY MOVE EASTWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CREATE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT
AND THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER WEST KENTUCKY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TO THE NORTH OF A PINCKNEYVILLE
ILLINOIS TO ROCKPORT INDIANA LINE THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVATION
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CROSSVILLE              38.16N 88.06W
05/11/2016                   WHITE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS. TORE OFF SOME ROOF SHINGLES.

&&

RST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
505 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     TORNADO          2 ESE KARBERS RIDGE     37.57N 88.30W
05/10/2016                   HARDIN             IL   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF0 PEAK WIND SPEED 75 MPH. BRIEF TOUCHDOWN WITH SOME
            TREE DAMAGE.

&&

KELLYH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
509 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     TORNADO          5 WSW MORGANFIELD       37.66N 87.99W
05/10/2016                   UNION              KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO. PEAK WIND 50 YARDS. PATH LENGTH 3.6 MILES.
            PATH WIDTH 50 YARDS. ENDING 2.1 MILES W OF MORGANFIELD.
            NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED.

&&

KELLYH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
523 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND GST     OWENSVILLE              38.27N 87.69W
05/11/2016  E60.00 MPH       GIBSON             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DEBRIS FLYING THROUGH THE AIR

&&

RST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
525 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             DU QUOIN                38.00N 89.24W
05/11/2016  E1.50 INCH       PERRY              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
537 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             7 E DU QUOIN            38.00N 89.11W
05/11/2016  E1.25 INCH       FRANKLIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL

&&

RST