Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon thanks to
upper shortwave activity moving around the upper high as well as
diurnal support. Activity looks to continue through the afternoon
and even into the evening hours before settling down overnight. A
similar pattern for tomorrow looks to have chances for precip
during the day, and higher chances exist east of I-65.

By Monday the upper high moves eastward but is quickly replaced by
another high later in the day. With that pattern in place, again
shortwave activity combined with diurnal help will again bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly Monday afternoon. A
bit of a drier period moves in Monday night through Tuesday night
as the large upper ridge over the Plains begins to track eastward.
There will be some slight chances for precip on the Plateau
Tuesday and maybe along the TN River Valley, but otherwise models
look to keep the mid state dry.

Wednesday looks to have the ridge a bit further east, bringing
northwest flow aloft over the eastern CONUS. This will allow
shortwave activity to bring some chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the day Wednesday and Thursday. Chances look
a bit less than yesterday's forecast, but still enough to have
mention of chance and slight chance in the grids. Friday and
Saturday look to be mostly dry as the upper ridge builds in, but
Saturday afternoon may have some chances for precip on the Plateau
with some weak shortwave activity.

With upper highs and ridging dominating the next week or so,
temperatures look to remain consistent with highs in the low 90s
and lows in the low to mid 70s. The only exception will be
Thursday and Friday night where model consensus has lows in the
mid to upper 60s returning to the mid state.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions expected thru 28/18Z. Several amendments possible
at terminals thru period if convection develops at terminals.
With a summertime wx pattern will be in place per ridging
influences sfc/aloft, enough low level moisture will be around
to support development of mainly diurnal based convection. As
with a summertime convective pattern also, can not guarantee
convection will happen at terminals, but certainly can not rule
out in vicinity thru at least 28/02Z. If convection develops
at/near terminals, MVFR fog could develop CKV/BNA, with MVFR/IFR
fog developing CSV 28/08Z-28/14Z. From 28/14Z-28/18Z..there could
be some diurnal initialized few/sct cu/ac approaching 28/18Z...but
enough uncertainty at this time/minimal impact to aviation
interest, to mention at terminals at this time. Light SE to SW winds
expected thru 28/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  93  74  92  73 /  20  30  20  20  10
Clarksville    72  91  73  90  72 /  20  20  20  30  10
Crossville     68  86  67  87  67 /  20  50  20  20  10
Columbia       71  91  72  91  71 /  10  20  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   71  91  71  91  70 /  10  30  10  10  10
Waverly        73  91  73  90  72 /  10  20  20  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-281000-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

IN SOME LOCATIONS HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
100 TO 105 DEGREES. EXERCISE HOT WEATHER SAFETY PRECAUTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
328 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

TNZ027-272115-
DAVIDSON TN-
328 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DAVIDSON COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 327 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER LA VERGNE...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
NASHVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...SMALL HAIL...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRENTWOOD...LA VERGNE...NOLENSVILLE...FOREST HILLS...OAK HILL...BELLE
MEADE...ANTIOCH AND BERRY HILL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3608 8652 3606 8653 3608 8653 3607 8655
      3606 8656 3604 8656 3601 8661 3598 8661
      3597 8662 3598 8667 3603 8678 3604 8683
      3609 8696 3620 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 116DEG 25KT 3603 8659

31

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
354 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

TNZ025-057-058-060-272130-
LEWIS TN-HICKMAN TN-MAURY TN-DICKSON TN-
354 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DICKSON...EASTERN HICKMAN...
NORTHEASTERN LEWIS AND NORTHWESTERN MAURY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
CDT...

AT 354 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTH OF BURNS...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
DICKSON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DICKSON...CENTERVILLE...WHITE BLUFF...BURNS...CHARLOTTE...VANLEER...
PRIMM SPRINGS...BON AQUA...NUNNELLY...LYLES...HAMPSHIRE...
WILLIAMSPORT AND GORDONSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3598 8719 3597 8721 3594 8720 3585 8721
      3584 8718 3559 8717 3556 8732 3556 8744
      3619 8756 3626 8752 3629 8721
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 171DEG 27KT 3595 8733

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
357 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

TNZ025-057-059-060-272130-
HICKMAN TN-MAURY TN-WILLIAMSON TN-DICKSON TN-
357 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DICKSON...
NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON...NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN AND NORTH CENTRAL
MAURY COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 357 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...OR 17 MILES
NORTH OF COLUMBIA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN...BURNS...FAIRVIEW...PRIMM SPRINGS...LYLES...BON AQUA...
LEIPERS FORK AND NATCHEZ TRACE AT HIGHWAY 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 8742 3608 8724 3606 8718 3605 8718
      3605 8715 3601 8704 3599 8704 3600 8701
      3595 8687 3574 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 116DEG 26KT 3586 8715

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

TNZ056>058-060-094-272145-
LAWRENCE TN-LEWIS TN-HICKMAN TN-MAURY TN-PERRY TN-
402 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY...SOUTHWESTERN HICKMAN...LEWIS AND SOUTHWESTERN
MAURY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 402 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED NEAR SUMMERTOWN...OR 11 MILES EAST OF
HOHENWALD...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOHENWALD...MOUNT PLEASANT...SUMMERTOWN...KIMMINS...HAMPSHIRE AND
GORDONSBURG.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3556 8721 3542 8722 3538 8731 3552 8776
      3575 8764
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 116DEG 26KT 3550 8736

31

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

TNZ007-008-272200-
ROBERTSON TN-SUMNER TN-
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON AND
NORTHWESTERN SUMNER COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WHITE HOUSE...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF GALLATIN...MOVING NORTHWEST AT
20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPRINGFIELD...WHITE HOUSE...MILLERSVILLE...CROSS PLAINS...ORLINDA...
COTTONTOWN AND BLACK JACK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8656 3645 8646 3635 8658 3654 8689
      3665 8667 3665 8659
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 145DEG 16KT 3646 8661

BARNWELL