Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
628 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The forecast wont change too much each day as an upper high
slowly moves eastward towards the Atlantic and gets replaced by
another upper high/ridging next week. Subtle shortwave
disturbances within the upper flow combined with diurnal support
will be enough for some shower and thunderstorm activity through
the duration of the forecast. Temperatures look to remain very
consistent through the end of next week with highs mainly in the
low to mid 90s and lows in the low to mid 70s.

For the short term through Sunday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will mainly be during the afternoon hours, but there
will still be chances for lingering showers to persist into the
evening. With weak upper level shear thanks to the upper closed
high, thunderstorms will be mainly pulse type and not move too
quickly. So if heavier showers and thunderstorms develop, slow
movement may bring some flood risks to impacted areas. Also, with
some enhanced areas of MUCAPE over the mid state during the
afternoon hours, some gusty winds will be possible with the higher
topped convection. Otherwise, just expecting typical isolated late
summer afternoon convection through the weekend.

After Sunday, the upper closed high begins to merge with the
approaching ridge, and keeps high pressure aloft through next
week. Another closed upper high will develop Tuesday, but doesnt
look to progress eastward like the previous high. Instead, the
ridge over the Plains will keep us in more of a northwesterly flow
pattern by late Wednesday. Again with subtle shortwaves embedded
within the upper flow, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day next week. By Friday, the ridge axis looks
to slide across the MS River Valley and may give us a dry weekend
across the mid state. For now have Friday and Friday night mainly
dry with a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms on the
Plateau.

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Convective temps running just a few degrees above current temps
at this hour. Should see some isol to sct development aft 21z or
so. Otw, higher pressure remains stacked to our east. Convective
activity that does develop will move very slowly northward. Light
fog possible late tonight as current tover values are slightly
negative.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A rather typical summertime pattern will continue in place over
the Mid-State during the next 24 hrs, with a period of BR
expected during the late night/early morning hours, and isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Visibilities in the BR will be
mainly MVFR, although can't rule out a brief period of IFR at one
or more of our airports. Daytime conditions will be mainly VFR,
except for a brief period of MVFR and/or IFR conditions if a
thunderstorm should happen to pass over an airport.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
538 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-272245-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-
MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-
COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
538 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
614 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBIA                35.62N  87.05W
08/26/2016                   MAURY              TN   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1601073

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
615 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT PLEASANT          35.55N  87.19W
08/26/2016                   MAURY              TN   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1601074

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
652 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W LINDEN              35.61N  87.88W
08/26/2016                   PERRY              TN   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN ON HIGHWAY 412 EAST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1601075

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNE HOHENWALD         35.66N  87.50W
08/26/2016                   HICKMAN            TN   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 48 SOUTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1601076

FB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
709 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SE LOBELVILLE         35.67N  87.70W
08/26/2016                   HICKMAN            TN   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 100 WEST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1601077

FB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
721 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

TNZ024-057-270100-
HUMPHREYS TN-HICKMAN TN-
721 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HUMPHREYS AND NORTHWESTERN
HICKMAN COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 721 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW JOHNSONVILLE TO 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CENTERVILLE. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAVERLY...CENTERVILLE...CAMDEN...NEW JOHNSONVILLE...MCEWEN...
HURRICANE MILLS AND BUCKSNORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 8800 3604 8799 3613 8792 3617 8792
      3619 8794 3623 8795 3615 8765 3576 8747
      3582 8772 3584 8772 3584 8778 3588 8794
      3594 8793 3595 8801 3597 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 140DEG 32KT 3603 8801 3585 8760

ROSE