Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
341 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Numerous strong to severe storms are expected this evening across
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The surface low this afternoon is in eastern SD with the attendant
warm front stretching to the east from roughly Granite Falls to
the Twin Cities metro to Rice Lake WI. South of the boundary,
temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 80s resulting in
2500-3000 J/Kg of MLCAPE. North of the boundary, there has been
persistent elevated storms with hail between 1-2.5" in diameter
this afternoon. The incoming trough has produced 30m height falls
at 500mb over the past few hours with steepening mid-level lapse
rates. The upper jet is spreading 30-40kts of deep layer across
most of MN. The 0-1 km shear isn't bad either with 15-30kts along
the warm front from the Twin Cities to Redwood Falls and low LCLs.
Therefore there is a tornado threat near the warm front in MN.
Convective mode will play a large role in severe type and
eventually the initial thunderstorms will evolve into a broken
line and a damaging wind threat, but that might not happen until
the storms reach eastern MN. We expect deep convective initiation
between 21-22z in western/central MN. Given the dissolving CAP,
these storms will be rooted in the boundary layer. Convective
watches will be issued shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Temperatures aren't much cooler behind the cool front that passes
through tonight and Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see
southwest flow aloft which keeps low chances of precipitation in
the forecast, especially on Wednesday, along the MN/IA border,
this area will remain near the front. The flow turns west-
northwest for Thursday and FRiday week which will allow cooler
air to advect southward across Minnesota and western Wisconsin,
along with drier dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

The aviation forecast is complex this afternoon and evening. There
are ongoing showers and storms north of a warm front in central
MN, with low ceilings extending farther south into MN/WI. There
will continue to be showers and storms across central MN and
western MN through the afternoon. Eventually, we think a line of
more intense thunderstorms will form in western MN and move east
through the evening and eventually into WI after sunset. This line
will have a severe weather threat and should impact most of the
TAF sites this evening.

KMSP...
Now that the first batch of thunder has moved well north of the
airport, there will be a lull locally in the showers/storms. There
is still MVFR ceilings with stratus around due to the amount of
moisture - ceilings will likely trend higher late this afternoon
before the storms arrive. The thinning of the clouds and
southeast winds are now setting the stage for a potentially severe
line of storms this evening at the airport. The timing of
thunderstorms is trending later with 00-03Z seeming like the most
likely window for thunder today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Winds SW becoming W 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ065>069-073>077-082>085-091>093-122000-
RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-
LE SUEUR-RICE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-
259 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT TORNADO RISK AS WELL.

HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 90 AND 100 ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MORE
ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MNZ041>045-047>064-070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-122000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-
DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
259 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MORE
ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
152 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ042-043-111930-
TODD-MORRISON-
152 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TODD AND
NORTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

AT 152 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED NEAR BERTHA...OR
28 MILES WEST OF CROW WING STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STAPLES...MOTLEY...STAPLES AIRPORT...BERTHA...HEWITT...CUSHING AND
PHILBROOK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4637 9473 4635 9470 4636 9467 4633 9462
      4631 9455 4633 9443 4629 9435 4625 9436
      4623 9440 4617 9438 4619 9514 4637 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 263DEG 36KT 4625 9492

DWE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
233 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             MORA                    45.88N 93.29W
07/11/2016  M1.75 INCH       KANABEC            MN   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
            VIA FACEBOOK. .

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             MORA                    45.88N 93.29W
07/11/2016  M2.50 INCH       KANABEC            MN   PUBLIC

            PHOTO OF HAIL SHOWS 2.5 INCH DIAMETER STONE.
            REPORTED VIA TWITTER. .

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
310 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ042-112045-
TODD-
310 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN TODD COUNTY...

AT 309 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEER
CREEK...OR 31 MILES NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEWITT.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 215 AND 219.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4625 9514 4628 9516 4637 9516 4637 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 207DEG 30KT 4635 9522

DWE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BELGRADE                45.45N 95.00W
07/11/2016  M4.00 INCH       STEARNS            MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            4" OF RAIN MEASURED BY BELGRADE FIRE
            DEPARTMENT SINCE 8:40 AM. .

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ044-050>052-059-061-112130-
BENTON-ANOKA-MILLE LACS-ISANTI-SHERBURNE-WRIGHT-
357 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SHERBURNE...
NORTHEASTERN WRIGHT...SOUTHWESTERN ISANTI...NORTHWESTERN ANOKA...
SOUTHWESTERN MILLE LACS AND SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 357 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED OVER BIG
LAKE...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF BUFFALO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMBRIDGE...RAMSEY...ELK RIVER...ST. MICHAEL...OTSEGO...MONTICELLO...
BIG LAKE...ST. FRANCIS...ALBERTVILLE...ISANTI...
ZIMMERMAN AND PRINCETON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4554 9315 4520 9362 4521 9364 4519 9366
      4518 9365 4516 9368 4536 9396 4574 9379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 227DEG 37KT 4534 9378

DWE