Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
116 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Nocturnal thunderstorm activity producing near-severe winds
(generally up to 45 mph) over the northern part of the forecast area
will continue to press across central and northern Minnesota this
morning. Still prefer the HRRR, which indicates activity will be a
bit slow to wane over central MN this morning just along and north
of the warm front. Meanwhile, the atmospheric cap will build south
of the warm front, with heat and humidity increasing over central
and southern Minnesota. Heat indices will near advisory criteria (95
to 100 degrees), but the impact will be borderline given the winds
and cloud cover, so will hold off on an advisory for now.

By late afternoon, expect convergence along the eastward-advancing
cold front to spawn clusters and/or a line of thunderstorms across
western Minnesota. This line will track eastward during the evening
hours, and will need to be monitored for severe weather potential.
Wind and hail will be the main threats, and then heavy rainfall and
flooding given recent rains, the elevated precipitable water values,
and the potential for back-building.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see southwest flow aloft
which keeps low chances of precipitation in the forecast,
especially along the Iowa border where instability will be highest
along the residual cold front. Eventually, the upper low which
will slowly progress across south central Canada, will shift the
mean upper level winds to a more west-northwest. This will allow
much cooler air to advect southward across Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Although temperatures will fall back into the 70s, dew
point temperatures will fall into the 40s/50s which is very
unusual for July.

Next weekend will see return flow as winds shift back to the
south-southeast. Chances of precipitation also return, along with
more humidity.

Past next weekend, models have been showing an upper ridge
building across the central part of the United States. This means
a return to much warmer conditions by the the last two weeks of
July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

The aviation forecast is complex this afternoon and evening. There
are ongoing showers and storms north of a warm front in central
MN, with low ceilings extending farther south into MN/WI. There
will continue to be showers and storms across central MN and
western MN through the afternoon. Eventually, we think a line of
more intense thunderstorms will form in western MN and move east
through the evening and eventually into WI after sunset. This line
will have a severe weather threat and should impact most of the
TAF sites this evening.

KMSP...
Now that the first batch of thunder has moved well north of the
airport, there will be a lull locally in the showers/storms. There
is still MVFR ceilings with stratus around due to the amount of
moisture - ceilings will likely trend higher late this afternoon
before the storms arrive. The thinning of the clouds and
southeast winds are now setting the stage for a potentially severe
line of storms this evening at the airport. The timing of
thunderstorms is trending later with 00-03Z seeming like the most
likely window for thunder today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Winds SW becoming W 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
259 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ065>069-073>077-082>085-091>093-122000-
RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-
LE SUEUR-RICE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-
259 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT TORNADO RISK AS WELL.

HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 90 AND 100 ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MORE
ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MNZ041>045-047>064-070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-122000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-
DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
259 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MORE
ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
124 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE ST. STEPHEN        45.68N 94.23W
07/11/2016  E4.00 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER IN DITCHES. RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR
            TODAY.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
127 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ELROSA                  45.57N 94.95W
07/11/2016  M4.30 INCH       STEARNS            MN   PUBLIC

            TOTAL SO FAR TODAY. REPORTED VIA TWITTER. .

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
152 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ042-043-111930-
TODD-MORRISON-
152 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TODD AND
NORTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

AT 152 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED NEAR BERTHA...OR
28 MILES WEST OF CROW WING STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STAPLES...MOTLEY...STAPLES AIRPORT...BERTHA...HEWITT...CUSHING AND
PHILBROOK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4637 9473 4635 9470 4636 9467 4633 9462
      4631 9455 4633 9443 4629 9435 4625 9436
      4623 9440 4617 9438 4619 9514 4637 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 263DEG 36KT 4625 9492

DWE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
233 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             MORA                    45.88N 93.29W
07/11/2016  M1.75 INCH       KANABEC            MN   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED
            VIA FACEBOOK. .

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             MORA                    45.88N 93.29W
07/11/2016  M2.50 INCH       KANABEC            MN   PUBLIC

            PHOTO OF HAIL SHOWS 2.5 INCH DIAMETER STONE.
            REPORTED VIA TWITTER. .

&&

MKM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
310 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ042-112045-
TODD-
310 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN TODD COUNTY...

AT 309 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEER
CREEK...OR 31 MILES NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEWITT.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 215 AND 219.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4625 9514 4628 9516 4637 9516 4637 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 207DEG 30KT 4635 9522

DWE