Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
429 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Nocturnal thunderstorm activity producing near-severe winds
(generally up to 45 mph) over the northern part of the forecast area
will continue to press across central and northern Minnesota this
morning. Still prefer the HRRR, which indicates activity will be a
bit slow to wane over central MN this morning just along and north
of the warm front. Meanwhile, the atmospheric cap will build south
of the warm front, with heat and humidity increasing over central
and southern Minnesota. Heat indices will near advisory criteria (95
to 100 degrees), but the impact will be borderline given the winds
and cloud cover, so will hold off on an advisory for now.

By late afternoon, expect convergence along the eastward-advancing
cold front to spawn clusters and/or a line of thunderstorms across
western Minnesota. This line will track eastward during the evening
hours, and will need to be monitored for severe weather potential.
Wind and hail will be the main threats, and then heavy rainfall and
flooding given recent rains, the elevated precipitable water values,
and the potential for back-building

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see southwest flow aloft
which keeps low chances of precipitation in the forecast,
especially along the Iowa border where instability will be highest
along the residual cold front. Eventually, the upper low which
will slowly progress across south central Canada, will shift the
mean upper level winds to a more west-northwest. This will allow
much cooler air to advect southward across Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Although temperatures will fall back into the 70s, dew
point temperatures will fall into the 40s/50s which is very
unusual for July.

Next weekend will see return flow as winds shift back to the
south-southeast. Chances of precipitation also return, along with
more humidity.

Past next weekend, models have been showing an upper ridge
building across the central part of the United States. This means
a return to much warmer conditions by the the last two weeks of
July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Jul 10 2016

The complex of storms in the Dakotas has been holding together
nicely for the past few hours and we now expect those to continue
across MN this morning, likely affecting KAXN and KSTC, but we
think they will largely remain north of the the rest of the TAF
sites. This is a fairly low confidence forecast as it's possible
the thunder dives a little farther south and hits KRWF and KMSP. The
storms late in the day tomorrow will likely be more widespread and
potentially impact all the TAF locations as these storms move west
to east across the area tomorrow.

KMSP...
We're keeping a close eye on the showers and storms off to the
west. The movement of these storms is to the east, but the
atmosphere in the metro is less favorable for storms, so we aren't
confident they will make it all the way to the airport - perhaps
just to the north. We'll keep monitoring. There is a good chance
for storms tomorrow evening, with impacts at KMSP looking more
likely.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. MVFR/TSRA possible early. Winds SW 10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds SW becoming W 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
451 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
451 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. A FEW OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
WHEN DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING.

IN BETWEEN THE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MORE
ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
231 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ041>043-110845-
TODD-MORRISON-DOUGLAS-
231 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TODD...DOUGLAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

AT 230 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HUBBARD TO NEAR HENNING TO NEAR
NORCROSS. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HEWITT AROUND 245 AM CDT.
  EVANSVILLE AND BRANDON AROUND 255 AM CDT.
  STAPLES AIRPORT AROUND 300 AM CDT.
  CARLOS AROUND 310 AM CDT.
  EAGLE BEND AROUND 320 AM CDT.
  LONG PRAIRIE...BROWERVILLE AND CLARISSA AROUND 325 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE GARFIELD...WEST
UNION...ROUND PRAIRIE...NELSON...CLOTHO...ALEXANDRIA AIRPORT...ROSE
CITY... LEAF VALLEY...MELBY AND MILTONA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 81 AND 118.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 103 AND 130.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 182 AND 219.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4637 9474 4635 9470 4636 9467 4631 9455
      4633 9443 4629 9435 4580 9502 4578 9576
      4610 9577 4611 9515 4637 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 0730Z 254DEG 63KT 4685 9507 4635 9552 4583 9619

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
301 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ047-048-055-110845-
POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-
301 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT STEVENS...WESTERN SWIFT
AND POPE COUNTIES...

AT 300 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOFFMAN TO NEAR LAKE HATTIE.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE OLIVER AROUND 310 AM CDT.
  LOWRY AND CYRUS AROUND 315 AM CDT.
  STARBUCK AROUND 320 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE CLONTARF...GLENWOOD
AIRPORT...VILLARD...MORRIS AIRPORT...HOLLOWAY...LAKE
MINNEWASKA...LAKE EMILY...FARWELL...LONG BEACH AND ALBERTA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND 39.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 142 AND 177.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4576 9615 4575 9515 4517 9583 4538 9612
      4541 9612 4541 9616 4544 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0800Z 316DEG 39KT 4576 9580 4546 9608

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
329 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ041>044-047>050-055-057-110930-
BENTON-MILLE
LACS-TODD-MORRISON-STEARNS-POPE-KANDIYOHI-STEVENS-SWIFT-DOUGLAS-
329 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN STEARNS...
SOUTHERN TODD...SOUTHEASTERN STEVENS...NORTHEASTERN SWIFT...
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...MORRISON...NORTHWESTERN MILLE LACS...
NORTHWESTERN KANDIYOHI...NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND POPE COUNTIES...

AT 328 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CUSHING TO NEAR NELSON TO NEAR
HANCOCK. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CROW WING STATE PARK AROUND 345 AM CDT.
  SAUK CENTRE AND LAKE HASSEL AROUND 350 AM CDT.
  MELROSE AND GREY EAGLE AROUND 400 AM CDT.
  ST. ANTHONY...FREEPORT AND LASTRUP AROUND 410 AM CDT.
  ALBANY AROUND 415 AM CDT.
  HOLDINGFORD AROUND 420 AM CDT.
  AVON AND VINELAND AROUND 425 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE GEORGEVILLE...ST
WENDEL...SOBIESKI...NORWAY LAKE...SWIFT FALLS...NEW
MUNICH...CLONTARF... BURTRUM...CUSHING AND MEIRE GROVE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 110
AND 154.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4629 9435 4627 9434 4623 9440 4616 9437
      4616 9381 4621 9380 4618 9358 4563 9438
      4521 9519 4545 9600 4582 9527 4632 9457
TIME...MOT...LOC 0828Z 286DEG 36KT 4626 9458 4582 9522 4548 9587

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
420 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ043>045-111000-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-KANABEC-
420 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KANABEC...SOUTHEASTERN
MORRISON AND MILLE LACS COUNTIES...

AT 420 AM CDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR VINELAND TO ROYALTON. MOVEMENT WAS
EAST AT 60 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  ONAMIA AND VINELAND AROUND 425 AM CDT.
  ISLE AND WAHKON AROUND 430 AM CDT.
  OGILVIE AROUND 450 AM CDT.
  MORA AROUND 455 AM CDT.
  QUAMBA AROUND 500 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE HILLMAN...GENOLA...
HARDING...WARMAN...BUCKMAN...LAKE MILLE LACS...MORRILL...KNIFE
LAKE...MORA AIRPORT AND BAYVIEW.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 156.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 197 AND 229.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4615 9343 4615 9306 4598 9306 4598 9314
      4583 9315 4583 9435 4616 9421 4616 9381
      4624 9381 4625 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0920Z 268DEG 71KT 4614 9381 4585 9429

LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
650 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ054>056-064-111315-
CHIPPEWA-LAC QUI PARLE-YELLOW MEDICINE-SWIFT-
650 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN YELLOW
MEDICINE...SWIFT...LAC QUI PARLE AND CHIPPEWA COUNTIES...

AT 649 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED OVER MADISON...OR
22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ORTONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTEVIDEO...BENSON...CANBY...MADISON...DAWSON...APPLETON...
CLARKFIELD...MILAN...WATSON...PORTER...BOYD AND BELLINGHAM.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 18 AND 54.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 41.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 95 AND 127.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 89 AND 152.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4527 9645 4525 9629 4522 9627 4518 9610
      4539 9611 4541 9528 4463 9583 4463 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 1149Z 245DEG 26KT 4504 9617

DWE