Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

.UPDATE...For 12z AVIATION discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Nocturnal thunderstorm activity producing near-severe winds
(generally up to 45 mph) over the northern part of the forecast area
will continue to press across central and northern Minnesota this
morning. Still prefer the HRRR, which indicates activity will be a
bit slow to wane over central MN this morning just along and north
of the warm front. Meanwhile, the atmospheric cap will build south
of the warm front, with heat and humidity increasing over central
and southern Minnesota. Heat indices will near advisory criteria (95
to 100 degrees), but the impact will be borderline given the winds
and cloud cover, so will hold off on an advisory for now.

By late afternoon, expect convergence along the eastward-advancing
cold front to spawn clusters and/or a line of thunderstorms across
western Minnesota. This line will track eastward during the evening
hours, and will need to be monitored for severe weather potential.
Wind and hail will be the main threats, and then heavy rainfall and
flooding given recent rains, the elevated precipitable water values,
and the potential for back-building.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to see southwest flow aloft
which keeps low chances of precipitation in the forecast,
especially along the Iowa border where instability will be highest
along the residual cold front. Eventually, the upper low which
will slowly progress across south central Canada, will shift the
mean upper level winds to a more west-northwest. This will allow
much cooler air to advect southward across Minnesota and western
Wisconsin. Although temperatures will fall back into the 70s, dew
point temperatures will fall into the 40s/50s which is very
unusual for July.

Next weekend will see return flow as winds shift back to the
south-southeast. Chances of precipitation also return, along with
more humidity.

Past next weekend, models have been showing an upper ridge
building across the central part of the United States. This means
a return to much warmer conditions by the the last two weeks of
July.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Mon Jul 11 2016

Showers and thunderstorms will affect KAXN through a good part of
the morning, but the remainder of the TAF sites should be
primarily dry with the exception of sprinkles at KSTC. Mostly VFR
conditions are expected this morning, although a sct-bkn deck
circa 1KFT is floating around. This afternoon the showers and
thunderstorms will become widespread and affect all of the TAF
sites by evening. Southeast winds become gusty for the afternoon
hours.

KMSP...
Still expect thunderstorm activity to stay north and west of KMSP
until this afternoon. Current thinking is that activity could
begin to sneak toward MSP by early afternoon (18z)...although it
is more likely to be around or after 21z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...VFR. MVFR/TSRA possible early. Winds SW 10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Winds SW becoming W 10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
451 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
451 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. A FEW OF STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...
WHEN DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING.

IN BETWEEN THE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BUILD DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH MORE
ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1128 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 AM     HAIL             MORRIS                  45.59N 95.91W
07/11/2016  M0.75 INCH       STEVENS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1146 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             SARTELL                 45.62N 94.21W
07/11/2016  M0.88 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA BENTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1153 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 AM     HAIL             MORRIS                  45.59N 95.91W
07/11/2016  M0.75 INCH       STEVENS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1140 AM     HAIL             SARTELL                 45.62N 94.21W
07/11/2016  M0.88 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA BENTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

1149 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MOTLEY                  46.34N 94.64W
07/11/2016  M2.75 INCH       MORRISON           MN   PUBLIC

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1213 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     HAIL             SARTELL                 45.62N 94.21W
07/11/2016  M0.88 INCH       STEARNS            MN   PUBLIC

            OCCURRED NEAR INTERSECTION OF PINECONE ROAD AND 2 1/2
            STREET. REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1235 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MOTLEY                  46.34N 94.64W
07/11/2016  M2.75 INCH       MORRISON           MN   PUBLIC

1140 AM     HAIL             SARTELL                 45.62N 94.21W
07/11/2016  M0.88 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA BENTON COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER.

1103 AM     HAIL             MORRIS                  45.59N 95.91W
07/11/2016  M0.75 INCH       STEVENS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1038 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MILLERVILLE             46.07N 95.55W
07/11/2016  M3.25 INCH       DOUGLAS            MN   PUBLIC

            .

0948 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BELGRADE                45.45N 95.00W
07/11/2016  M1.50 INCH       STEARNS            MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            .

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MADISON                 45.01N 96.19W
07/11/2016  M2.93 INCH       LAC QUI PARLE      MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

            .

0837 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MADISON                 45.01N 96.19W
07/11/2016  M3.75 INCH       LAC QUI PARLE      MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            OCCURRED AT LOCAL RADIO STATION. STREET
            FLOODING (OVER CURBS), WAS ALSO REPORTED.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

MNZ043-050-111830-
BENTON-MORRISON-
1241 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MORRISON
AND NORTHWESTERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 1241 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE CLUSTERED NEAR RICE...OR
14 MILES NORTH OF ST. CLOUD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LITTLE FALLS...PIERZ...ROYALTON...BOWLUS...RICE...MORRILL...
BUCKMAN...LITTLE ROCK...ELMDALE...GENOLA AND LITTLE FALLS AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144
AND 163.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4597 9379 4573 9406 4576 9427 4577 9428
      4577 9439 4579 9454 4601 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1741Z 208DEG 23KT 4579 9418

DWE