Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Active pattern over the next 24 hours as an upper trough
approaches along the U.S./Mexico border. A very unstable AMS
remains in place, but models differ significantly as where the
focus is for convection, likely as a result of multiple residual
boundaries in the area from previous convection. Otherwise, sfc
flow should back over the next 24 hours as a cold front moves
through the region. Models hint at a stratus deck w/the front, but
buffer soundings suggest MVFR cigs only at KCNM/KINK, w/all other
terminals staying VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The forecast remains complicated as an unsettled pattern sticks
around through the end of this week. An upper low to our west will
continue to send disturbances our way as low level moisture
remains high across the area. As was the case yesterday,
convection is expected to form along leftover outflow boundaries
and across the higher terrain later today. Models have struggled
with placement of these storms over the past few days and today
should be no different. The most sunshine so far today has
occurred across the northern Permian Basin and this area appears
to be the most unstable. An outflow boundary across this area is
beginning to light up with convection as convective temperatures
are reached. Elsewhere, the atmosphere has been worked over from
this mornings convection, but still expect some destabilization to
occur with afternoon heating. Strong to severe storms will again
be possible today given moderate shear values near 35 kts and
strong instability. A splitting upper level jet will also lead to
strong diffluence aloft. Moisture remains high across the area and
some locations have received several inches of rain over the past
few days. Given the above, will include severe wording in the
zones and also mention locally heavy rainfall possible tonight.

The upper low moves closer tomorrow so expect much of the same
across the area. Heavy rain and severe storms will again be a
possibility Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few models even
depict a southward moving MCS for northeast portions of the area
tonight into the morning hours. Uncertainty exists in which
locations will see the heaviest rain as convective coverage tomorrow
will likely be driven by what occurs across the region tonight. With
that said, locations from Snyder to Big Spring to Rankin have
received the most rain over the past few days and with more
likely leading to flooding, a Flash Flood Watch will be in effect
through tomorrow.

Temperatures will be held in check over the next few days due to all
the clouds and rain. The upper low moves over the area Thursday with
continued chances for rainfall. Models then show the low slowly
sinking southeast across TX through the weekend. Rain chances will
diminish by the end of the week, but temperatures will be slow to
warm back to normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  77  61  75 /  70  60  60  50
Carlsbad                       63  79  60  80 /  40  50  60  30
Dryden                         68  84  65  81 /  50  50  60  50
Fort Stockton                  65  80  62  77 /  40  50  60  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  74  56  73 /  30  50  50  30
Hobbs                          59  75  57  74 /  50  60  60  30
Marfa                          53  76  51  74 /  40  40  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           65  79  62  77 /  60  60  60  40
Odessa                         65  79  63  77 /  50  60  60  40
Wink                           63  81  61  79 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Borden-Glasscock-
     Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton.

&&

44/84/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-011815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 /1205 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PERSIST
TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING COULD ALSO
BECOME PROBLEMATIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WHICH HAS RECENTLY SEEN ALOT OF RAINFALL AND
WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER
ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
847 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ058-074-010230-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA TX-
847 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 847 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF BALMORHEA...OR 28 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PECOS...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BALMORHEA...VERHALEN...TOYAHVALE...SARAGOSA...BUFFALO TRAIL SCOUT CAMP...
BALMORHEA LAKE AND BALMORHEA STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 192 AND 221.

LAT...LON 3085 10419 3118 10387 3125 10336 3076 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 271DEG 35KT 3109 10379

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
919 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ058-067-010300-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX-WARD TX-
919 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WARD AND CENTRAL
REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 919 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PECOS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PECOS...TOYAH LAKE...PECOS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...B F GOODRICH TESTING
TRACK AND BARSTOW.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 35 AND 59.

LAT...LON 3122 10362 3155 10357 3164 10320 3127 10325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 272DEG 9KT 3146 10350

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
956 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ058-060-061-067-068-075-010345-
WINKLER TX-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS TX-WARD TX-ECTOR TX-
CRANE TX-PECOS TX-
956 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRANE...SOUTHEASTERN
WINKLER...NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...SOUTHWESTERN ECTOR...WARD AND EASTERN
REEVES COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 956 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
PYOTE...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONAHANS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONAHANS...WICKETT...PYOTE...MONAHANS SANDHILLS STATE PARK...B F GOODRICH
TESTING TRACK...ROY HURD MEMORIAL AIRPORT...IMPERIAL...ROYALTY...
THORNTONVILLE...GRANDFALLS AND IMPERIAL RESERVOIR.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 61 AND 92.

LAT...LON 3126 10325 3165 10319 3168 10272 3122 10261
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 276DEG 31KT 3151 10311

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1025 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N ODESSA              31.88N 102.37W
05/31/2016  M56.00 MPH       ECTOR              TX   ASOS

            A 56 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST RECORDED AT ODESSA
            SCHLEMEYER AIRPORT.

&&

AKL

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