Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
501 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Active pattern over the next 24 hours as an upper trough
approaches along the U.S./Mexico border. A very unstable AMS
remains in place, but models differ significantly as where the
focus is for convection, likely as a result of multiple residual
boundaries in the area from previous convection. Otherwise, sfc
flow should back over the next 24 hours as a cold front moves
through the region. Models hint at a stratus deck w/the front, but
buffer soundings suggest MVFR cigs only at KCNM/KINK, w/all other
terminals staying VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 220 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The forecast remains complicated as an unsettled pattern sticks
around through the end of this week. An upper low to our west will
continue to send disturbances our way as low level moisture
remains high across the area. As was the case yesterday,
convection is expected to form along leftover outflow boundaries
and across the higher terrain later today. Models have struggled
with placement of these storms over the past few days and today
should be no different. The most sunshine so far today has
occurred across the northern Permian Basin and this area appears
to be the most unstable. An outflow boundary across this area is
beginning to light up with convection as convective temperatures
are reached. Elsewhere, the atmosphere has been worked over from
this mornings convection, but still expect some destabilization to
occur with afternoon heating. Strong to severe storms will again
be possible today given moderate shear values near 35 kts and
strong instability. A splitting upper level jet will also lead to
strong diffluence aloft. Moisture remains high across the area and
some locations have received several inches of rain over the past
few days. Given the above, will include severe wording in the
zones and also mention locally heavy rainfall possible tonight.

The upper low moves closer tomorrow so expect much of the same
across the area. Heavy rain and severe storms will again be a
possibility Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few models even
depict a southward moving MCS for northeast portions of the area
tonight into the morning hours. Uncertainty exists in which
locations will see the heaviest rain as convective coverage tomorrow
will likely be driven by what occurs across the region tonight. With
that said, locations from Snyder to Big Spring to Rankin have
received the most rain over the past few days and with more
likely leading to flooding, a Flash Flood Watch will be in effect
through tomorrow.

Temperatures will be held in check over the next few days due to all
the clouds and rain. The upper low moves over the area Thursday with
continued chances for rainfall. Models then show the low slowly
sinking southeast across TX through the weekend. Rain chances will
diminish by the end of the week, but temperatures will be slow to
warm back to normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64  77  61  75 /  70  60  60  50
Carlsbad                       63  79  60  80 /  40  50  60  30
Dryden                         68  84  65  81 /  50  50  60  50
Fort Stockton                  65  80  62  77 /  40  50  60  40
Guadalupe Pass                 61  74  56  73 /  30  50  50  30
Hobbs                          59  75  57  74 /  50  60  60  30
Marfa                          53  76  51  74 /  40  40  50  40
Midland Intl Airport           65  79  62  77 /  60  60  60  40
Odessa                         65  79  63  77 /  50  60  60  40
Wink                           63  81  61  79 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Borden-Glasscock-
     Howard-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-Scurry-Upton.

&&

44/84/44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-011815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016 /1205 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AND PERSIST
TONIGHT.  SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING COULD ALSO
BECOME PROBLEMATIC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN WHICH HAS RECENTLY SEEN ALOT OF RAINFALL AND
WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER
ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY IN THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
ON THURSDAY, THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

TXZ046-010045-
DAWSON TX-
645 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL DAWSON COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

AT 644 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LAMESA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAMESA...LOS YBANEZ...FRIENDSHIP...ARVANA...KEY...MIDWAY...SPARENBERG...
UNION...TENMILE AND LAMESA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 10214 3284 10202 3279 10172 3254 10182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 287DEG 8KT 3272 10200

84