Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Louisville, KY

March 31, 20165 counties in Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 31, 2016, 4:21 PM CDT for 5 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 24 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2016, 4:21 PM CDT (21:21 UTC)
Expired: Mar 31, 2016, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Louisville, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Barren County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hart County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 31, 4:37 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Cave City, KY	TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
Mar 31, 4:53 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Cave City, KY	TREE DOWN IN NORTHERN BARREN COUNTY NEAR THE HART COUNTY LINE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 16 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 31, 3:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 9.4 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 834 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 673 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 836 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

694 
WUUS53 KLMK 312121
SVRLMK
KYC009-061-087-099-169-312145-
/O.NEW.KLMK.SV.W.0022.160331T2121Z-160331T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
421 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN GREEN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  HART COUNTY IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  NORTHWESTERN METCALFE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  NORTHERN BARREN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  EASTERN EDMONSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 420 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PLUM
  SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GLASGOW...MUNFORDVILLE...MONROE...HORSE CAVE...CAVE CITY...PARK CITY...
  BONNIEVILLE...RAILTON...ROWLETTS AND STOCKHOLM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 8615 3693 8614 3691 8618 3692 8616
      3706 8611 3707 8615 3726 8616 3734 8609
      3735 8608 3734 8607 3739 8605 3740 8602
      3740 8604 3744 8601 3742 8568 3712 8563
      3690 8610 3688 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 249DEG 57KT 3699 8629 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$
JDG

1 follow-up statement

341 
WWUS53 KLMK 312142
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
442 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

KYC009-061-087-099-169-312152-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-160331T2145Z/
GREEN KY-HART KY-METCALFE KY-BARREN KY-EDMONSON KY-
442 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GREEN...HART...
NORTHWESTERN METCALFE...NORTHERN BARREN AND EASTERN EDMONSON COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3690 8615 3692 8614 3691 8618 3692 8616
      3706 8611 3707 8615 3726 8616 3734 8609
      3735 8608 3734 8607 3739 8605 3740 8602
      3740 8604 3744 8601 3742 8568 3712 8563
      3690 8610 3688 8612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 249DEG 57KT 3699 8629 

$$

SCHOETTMER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 31, 2:14 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 2:14 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016

...Strong to Severe Storms Likely into This Evening...

Line of convection has solidified along a pre-frontal trof over
western Kentucky, and will be pushing into central Kentucky during
the afternoon commute. Wind reports associated with these storms are
marginal so far, but the line is moving into an area of stronger and
increasing instability and DCAPE, as clouds have broken and temps
have climbed into the 70s. Actual cold front is back across
Illinois, just this side of Interstate 55, with a decent line of
convection along it.

All modes of severe weather remain on the table, but with surface
winds now veered to the SSW the tornado threat is decreasing absent
any locally backed winds. Thus SPC outlook has been downgraded to
slight, which seems reasonable. Otherwise, there remains enough
instability and decent shear to support large hail and damaging
winds. Better DCAPE is over south-central KY and expected to improve
with continued heating, so expect the wind threat to be greater
there. Mid-level lapse rates are better over Illinois and Indiana,
so northern counties would be more favored for hail potential.

First line should move east across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky between now and early evening. Later in the evening, a
weaker second wave along the front will mainly affect the I-64
corridor and north, while storms lifting out of Tennessee will
scrape south-central Kentucky. There's a substantial chance that
some part of central Kentucky will get gapped between these two
lines.

Precip tapers off after midnight, leaving us a transitional day on
Friday with dry surface ridging oriented west to east, but the upper
trof axis still to our north and west. Temps will actually run just
on the high side of climo, with breezy west winds especially north
of the Parkways. Ridging continues to build Fri night, but with a
decent surface low over Wisconsin, winds will stay up enough to keep
temps from bottoming out.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Progressive, mainly NW flow is expected for much of the long term
period. Saturday will be cool and breezy in the cold advection
behind a Clipper pushing through the Great Lakes. However, the main
impact over the weekend will be frost/freeze potential late Sat
night into Sun morning with the surface high draped across the Ohio
Valley. Will include patchy frost wording in the forecast, but not
enough confidence in a freeze for any headlines or HWO mention.

Another Clipper will pass by to our north Monday, but will be
moisture-starved. Still close enough to the dynamics to warrant
chance POPs Monday into Monday night. Tuesday looks to be the
coolest day in the forecast as a 1033mb high pushes a quick shot of
Canadian air into the Ohio Valley. Temps will recover quickly under
shortwave ridging on Wednesday, but precip chances return late
Wednesday and stick around through Thursday as a full-latitude upper
trof digs into the eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016

A cold front will continue to approach the region today and move
through tonight. The morning's rain continues to push off to the
east and will be east of LEX by TAF issuance time. Focus then turns
to the potential for storms this afternoon. Looking at the most
recent model runs and current storm development, it looks like
storms will move in an hour or two earlier than previously forecast,
so moved up the time for the TS this afternoon. Scattered storms are
possible this afternoon and early evening. There will then be
another round of rain with maybe some storms moving through with the
front later in the evening. Right now it looks like the afternoon
activity will be the strongest with the potential for the biggest
impact if a storm moves across the terminal. All precipitation
should move out through the overnight hours.

Ceilings will improve to VFR at LEX after the rain moves out and
have already improved at BWG and SDF. Mainly VFR conditions are
expected except in any storms. Winds will continue to be gusty out
of the south today. They will relax and shift to west-northwesterly
tonight in the wake of the front.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........EER

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 2:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 51 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-011930-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
330 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 /230 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WHILE
THE THREAT EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA...THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA...WHILE THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 3:59 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
459 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W SIMPSONVILLE        38.22N 85.41W
03/31/2016  M51 MPH          SHELBY             KY   MESONET

            KENTUCKY MESONET SITE.

&&

MRC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 4:03 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
503 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0442 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE RUSSELLVILLE      36.84N 86.88W
03/31/2016                   LOGAN              KY   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN.

&&

MRC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 4:12 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
512 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TAYLORSVILLE            38.03N 85.34W
03/31/2016                   SPENCER            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

&&

KDW

Local storm report, Mar 31, 4:17 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
517 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE BOWLING GREEN      36.96N 86.42W
03/31/2016  M54 MPH          WARREN             KY   ASOS

            47 KT WIND GUST AT BWG.

&&

MRC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 4:19 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
519 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARNED                  37.75N 86.41W
03/31/2016                   BRECKINRIDGE       KY   AMATEUR RADIO

            *** 2 INJ ***
            TRAILERS FLIPPED OVER AT NANCY BUTLER
            TRAILER PARK. UPDATED FOR INJURY REPORT.

&&

MRC

Local storm report, Mar 31, 4:21 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
521 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE BOWLING GREEN     36.96N 86.43W
03/31/2016  M54 MPH          WARREN             KY   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            47 KT GUST AT BOWLING GREEN AIRPORT

&&

RAS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 31, 2:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Breckinridge, Butler, Grayson, Hancock, Ohio	34 min
Mar 31, 2:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Butler, Grayson, Ohio	27 min
Mar 31, 2:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Breckinridge, Hancock, Meade, Ohio	36 min
Mar 31, 2:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Hardin, Jefferson, Meade	36 min
Mar 31, 3:08 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Anderson, Bourbon, Clark, Fayette, Franklin, Harrison and 11 more	22 min
Mar 31, 3:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Jefferson, Oldham, Shelby	34 min
Mar 31, 3:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Bullitt, Hardin, Larue, Marion, Meade and 3 more	33 min
Mar 31, 3:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Henry, Oldham, Trimble	36 min
Mar 31, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bullitt, Jefferson, Shelby, Spencer	32 min
Mar 31, 3:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Butler, Logan, Simpson, Warren	24 min
Mar 31, 3:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LMK	Shelby, Spencer	17 min
Mar 31, 3:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Franklin, Henry, Oldham, Shelby	29 min
Mar 31, 3:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Edmonson, Logan, Simpson, Warren	35 min
Mar 31, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Anderson, Franklin, Scott, Shelby, Woodford	32 min
Mar 31, 4:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Franklin, Harrison, Scott	35 min
Mar 31, 4:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Bourbon, Harrison, Nicholas, Scott	36 min
Mar 31, 4:32 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	LMK	Warren	118 min
Mar 31, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Barren, Edmonson, Green, Hart, Metcalfe	30 min
Mar 31, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LMK	Adair, Casey, Cumberland, Green, Metcalfe, Russell and 1 more	48 min
Mar 31, 5:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Allen, Monroe	31 min
Mar 31, 6:26 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LMK	Clinton, Cumberland	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.