Special Weather Statement, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
314 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016

...Strong to Severe Storms Likely into This Evening...

Line of convection has solidified along a pre-frontal trof over
western Kentucky, and will be pushing into central Kentucky during
the afternoon commute. Wind reports associated with these storms are
marginal so far, but the line is moving into an area of stronger and
increasing instability and DCAPE, as clouds have broken and temps
have climbed into the 70s. Actual cold front is back across
Illinois, just this side of Interstate 55, with a decent line of
convection along it.

All modes of severe weather remain on the table, but with surface
winds now veered to the SSW the tornado threat is decreasing absent
any locally backed winds. Thus SPC outlook has been downgraded to
slight, which seems reasonable. Otherwise, there remains enough
instability and decent shear to support large hail and damaging
winds. Better DCAPE is over south-central KY and expected to improve
with continued heating, so expect the wind threat to be greater
there. Mid-level lapse rates are better over Illinois and Indiana,
so northern counties would be more favored for hail potential.

First line should move east across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky between now and early evening. Later in the evening, a
weaker second wave along the front will mainly affect the I-64
corridor and north, while storms lifting out of Tennessee will
scrape south-central Kentucky. There's a substantial chance that
some part of central Kentucky will get gapped between these two
lines.

Precip tapers off after midnight, leaving us a transitional day on
Friday with dry surface ridging oriented west to east, but the upper
trof axis still to our north and west. Temps will actually run just
on the high side of climo, with breezy west winds especially north
of the Parkways. Ridging continues to build Fri night, but with a
decent surface low over Wisconsin, winds will stay up enough to keep
temps from bottoming out.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016

Progressive, mainly NW flow is expected for much of the long term
period. Saturday will be cool and breezy in the cold advection
behind a Clipper pushing through the Great Lakes. However, the main
impact over the weekend will be frost/freeze potential late Sat
night into Sun morning with the surface high draped across the Ohio
Valley. Will include patchy frost wording in the forecast, but not
enough confidence in a freeze for any headlines or HWO mention.

Another Clipper will pass by to our north Monday, but will be
moisture-starved. Still close enough to the dynamics to warrant
chance POPs Monday into Monday night. Tuesday looks to be the
coolest day in the forecast as a 1033mb high pushes a quick shot of
Canadian air into the Ohio Valley. Temps will recover quickly under
shortwave ridging on Wednesday, but precip chances return late
Wednesday and stick around through Thursday as a full-latitude upper
trof digs into the eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1246 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2016

A cold front will continue to approach the region today and move
through tonight. The morning's rain continues to push off to the
east and will be east of LEX by TAF issuance time. Focus then turns
to the potential for storms this afternoon. Looking at the most
recent model runs and current storm development, it looks like
storms will move in an hour or two earlier than previously forecast,
so moved up the time for the TS this afternoon. Scattered storms are
possible this afternoon and early evening. There will then be
another round of rain with maybe some storms moving through with the
front later in the evening. Right now it looks like the afternoon
activity will be the strongest with the potential for the biggest
impact if a storm moves across the terminal. All precipitation
should move out through the overnight hours.

Ceilings will improve to VFR at LEX after the rain moves out and
have already improved at BWG and SDF. Mainly VFR conditions are
expected except in any storms. Winds will continue to be gusty out
of the south today. They will relax and shift to west-northwesterly
tonight in the wake of the front.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........EER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-011930-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...ENGLISH...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...
BRANDENBURG...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...
SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...MILTON...
NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...
FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
330 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016 /230 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WHILE
THE THREAT EXISTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA...THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA...WHILE THE WIND THREAT WILL BE
GREATEST OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
559 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE SHIVELY           38.21N 85.80W
03/31/2016                   JEFFERSON          KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE BLOWN ON TO A HOUSE ON DUBOURG AVENUE.

&&

MRC

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