River Flood Warning 104, NWS New Orleans, LA

056 
WGUS84 KLIX 122125
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
425 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tchefuncte River Near Folsom affecting St. Tammany Parish 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-140325-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0104.000000T0000Z-160816T0300Z/
/FLSL1.3.ER.160812T1942Z.160814T0000Z.160815T2100Z.NR/
425 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom.
* until Monday evening.
* At  4:00 PM Friday the stage was 19.2 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by 
  early Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Monday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.5 feet...Strong river current carrying debris will 
  threaten damage to the bridge structure. There will be water in 
  homes near Savannah Branch. Evacuation will be required near Bennet
  Bridge Road. There will be water over low-lying stretches of 
  Louisiana Highway 1077 downstream of the Highway 40 bridge. 
  Evacuation of the area around Spring Park and Albert Thompson Roads
  should be complete.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...There will be water in homes near Savannah 
  Branch. Evacuation will be required near Bennet Bridge Road. There 
  will be water over low lying stretches of Louisiana Highway 1077 
  downstream of the Highway 40 bridge. Evacuation of the area around 
  Spring Park and Albert Thompson Roads should be complete.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Louisiana Highway 40 will overflow the west 
  bank by the bridge. Evacuation of the area around Spring Park and 
  Albert Thompson roads should be complete.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Areas of Spring Park and Albert Thompson 
  Road will be inundated. Homes will flood if the river rises higher.
  Evacuation of those areas is recommended.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 9019 3062 9023 3059 9023 3059 9018




$$

863 
WGUS84 KLIX 130039
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
739 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tchefuncte River Near Folsom affecting St. Tammany Parish 
  
  Tchefuncte River Above U.S. Highway 190 Near Covington affecting St.
  Tammany Parish 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-140639-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0104.000000T0000Z-160816T0234Z/
/FLSL1.3.ER.160812T1942Z.160813T1200Z.160815T2034Z.NR/
739 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom.
* until Monday evening.
* At  7:00 PM Friday the stage was 22.6 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.0 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Monday 
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.5 feet...Strong river current carrying debris will 
  threaten damage to the bridge structure. There will be water in 
  homes near Savannah Branch. Evacuation will be required near Bennet
  Bridge Road. There will be water over low-lying stretches of 
  Louisiana Highway 1077 downstream of the Highway 40 bridge. 
  Evacuation of the area around Spring Park and Albert Thompson Roads
  should be complete.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...There will be water in homes near Savannah 
  Branch. Evacuation will be required near Bennet Bridge Road. There 
  will be water over low lying stretches of Louisiana Highway 1077 
  downstream of the Highway 40 bridge. Evacuation of the area around 
  Spring Park and Albert Thompson Roads should be complete.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Louisiana Highway 40 will overflow the west 
  bank by the bridge. Evacuation of the area around Spring Park and 
  Albert Thompson roads should be complete.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Areas of Spring Park and Albert Thompson 
  Road will be inundated. Homes will flood if the river rises higher.
  Evacuation of those areas is recommended.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 9019 3062 9023 3059 9023 3059 9018




$$

LAC103-140638-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-160817T0436Z/
/CUSL1.3.ER.160812T1836Z.160814T0600Z.160816T2236Z.NR/
739 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Above U.S. Highway 190 Near Covington.
* until Tuesday evening.
* At  6:30 PM Friday the stage was 21.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 30.0 feet by 
  early Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday
  afternoon.
* Impact...At 28.5 feet...Louisiana Highway 21 closed, water will be 
  over the roadway surface of the bridge. Flowers Estates will be 
  inundated. A few homes not elevated will flood. Homes along Old 
  Landing and Riverbend Lane will flood. Homes near Highway 1077 and 
  in the Tantella Ranch Road area will flood.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Flowers estates will be inundated. A few 
  homes not elevated will flood. Homes along Old Landing and 
  Riverbend Lane will flood. Homes near Highway 1077 and in the 
  Tantella Ranch Road area will flood.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...The entrance road to Camp Tchefuncte will 
  flood. The campgrounds will be inaccessible by auto and evacuation 
  of the campground area is advised. Homes between Tantella Ranch 
  Road and the river as well as homes on Trinchard Road and Louisiana
  Highway 1077 will be threatened.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Tchefuncte River camp grounds will be under 
  a few inches of water. The Goodbee commumunity is threatened with 
  flooding. Water will invade Camp Tchefuncte's parking lot. Vehicles
  must be removed to higher ground.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water will invade Camp Tchefuncte's parking 
  lot. Vehicles must be removed to higher ground.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The Camp Tchefuncte softball field will be 
  under water. The camp parking lot is threatened with flooding and 
  vehicles are advised to be moved if higher river stages are 
  anticipated.


&&

LAT...LON 3059 9018 3059 9022 3048 9014 3049 9009




$$

496 
WGUS84 KLIX 130324
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1024 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tchefuncte River Near Folsom affecting St. Tammany Parish 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-140924-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0104.000000T0000Z-160816T0720Z/
/FLSL1.3.ER.160812T1942Z.160813T1200Z.160816T0120Z.NR/
1024 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom.
* until late Monday night.
* At 10:00 PM Friday the stage was 23.9 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.5 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Monday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 21.5 feet...Strong river current carrying debris will 
  threaten damage to the bridge structure. There will be water in 
  homes near Savannah Branch. Evacuation will be required near Bennet
  Bridge Road. There will be water over low-lying stretches of 
  Louisiana Highway 1077 downstream of the Highway 40 bridge. 
  Evacuation of the area around Spring Park and Albert Thompson Roads
  should be complete.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...There will be water in homes near Savannah 
  Branch. Evacuation will be required near Bennet Bridge Road. There 
  will be water over low lying stretches of Louisiana Highway 1077 
  downstream of the Highway 40 bridge. Evacuation of the area around 
  Spring Park and Albert Thompson Roads should be complete.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Louisiana Highway 40 will overflow the west 
  bank by the bridge. Evacuation of the area around Spring Park and 
  Albert Thompson roads should be complete.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Areas of Spring Park and Albert Thompson 
  Road will be inundated. Homes will flood if the river rises higher.
  Evacuation of those areas is recommended.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 9019 3062 9023 3059 9023 3059 9018




$$

194 
WGUS84 KLIX 131504
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1004 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom affecting St. Tammany Parish 

The Tchefuncte River Above U.S. Highway 190 Near Covington affecting St.
Tammany Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-142104-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0104.000000T0000Z-160816T0900Z/
/FLSL1.3.ER.160812T1942Z.160813T0730Z.160816T0300Z.NR/
1004 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom.
* until late Monday night.
* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 23.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by Monday night.
* Impact...At 21.5 feet...Strong river current carrying debris will 
  threaten damage to the bridge structure. There will be water in 
  homes near Savannah Branch. Evacuation will be required near Bennet
  Bridge Road. There will be water over low-lying stretches of 
  Louisiana Highway 1077 downstream of the Highway 40 bridge. 
  Evacuation of the area around Spring Park and Albert Thompson Roads
  should be complete.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...There will be water in homes near Savannah 
  Branch. Evacuation will be required near Bennet Bridge Road. There 
  will be water over low lying stretches of Louisiana Highway 1077 
  downstream of the Highway 40 bridge. Evacuation of the area around 
  Spring Park and Albert Thompson Roads should be complete.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Louisiana Highway 40 will overflow the west 
  bank by the bridge. Evacuation of the area around Spring Park and 
  Albert Thompson roads should be complete.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Areas of Spring Park and Albert Thompson 
  Road will be inundated. Homes will flood if the river rises higher.
  Evacuation of those areas is recommended.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 9019 3062 9023 3059 9023 3059 9018



$$

LAC103-142104-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-160816T1800Z/
/CUSL1.3.ER.160812T1836Z.160814T0000Z.160816T1200Z.NR/
1004 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Above U.S. Highway 190 Near Covington.
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 9:30 AM Saturday the stage was 26.8 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting 
  at around 30.0 feet by early this evening. The river is expected 
  to fall below flood stage by early Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 28.5 feet...Louisiana Highway 21 closed, water will be 
  over the roadway surface of the bridge. Flowers Estates will be 
  inundated. A few homes not elevated will flood. Homes along Old 
  Landing and Riverbend Lane will flood. Homes near Highway 1077 and 
  in the Tantella Ranch Road area will flood.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Flowers estates will be inundated. A few 
  homes not elevated will flood. Homes along Old Landing and 
  Riverbend Lane will flood. Homes near Highway 1077 and in the 
  Tantella Ranch Road area will flood.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...The entrance road to Camp Tchefuncte will 
  flood. The campgrounds will be inaccessible by auto and evacuation 
  of the campground area is advised. Homes between Tantella Ranch 
  Road and the river as well as homes on Trinchard Road and Louisiana
  Highway 1077 will be threatened.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Tchefuncte River camp grounds will be under 
  a few inches of water. The Goodbee commumunity is threatened with 
  flooding. Water will invade Camp Tchefuncte's parking lot. Vehicles
  must be removed to higher ground.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water will invade Camp Tchefuncte's parking 
  lot. Vehicles must be removed to higher ground.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The Camp Tchefuncte softball field will be 
  under water. The camp parking lot is threatened with flooding and 
  vehicles are advised to be moved if higher river stages are 
  anticipated.


&&

LAT...LON 3059 9018 3059 9022 3048 9014 3049 9009




$$

653 
WGUS84 KLIX 140153
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
853 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tchefuncte River Near Folsom affecting St. Tammany Parish 

  Tchefuncte River Above U.S. Highway 190 Near Covington affecting 
  St. Tammany Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-150130-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0104.000000T0000Z-160815T0130Z/
/FLSL1.3.ER.160812T1942Z.160813T0730Z.160814T1930Z.NR/
853 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom.
* until Sunday evening.
* At  8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 19.6 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...Louisiana Highway 40 will overflow the west 
  bank by the bridge. Evacuation of the area around Spring Park and 
  Albert Thompson roads should be complete.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Areas of Spring Park and Albert Thompson 
  Road will be inundated. Homes will flood if the river rises higher.
  Evacuation of those areas is recommended.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 9019 3062 9023 3059 9023 3059 9018




$$

LAC103-150753-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-160816T1800Z/
/CUSL1.3.ER.160812T1836Z.160814T0115Z.160816T1200Z.NR/
853 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Above U.S. Highway 190 Near Covington.
* until Tuesday afternoon.
* At  8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 30.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is near crest. The river will begin to fall 
  to below flood stage by Tuesday morning.
* Impact...At 28.5 feet...Louisiana Highway 21 closed, water will be 
  over the roadway surface of the bridge. Flowers Estates will be 
  inundated. A few homes not elevated will flood. Homes along Old 
  Landing and Riverbend Lane will flood. Homes near Highway 1077 and 
  in the Tantella Ranch Road area will flood.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Flowers estates will be inundated. A few 
  homes not elevated will flood. Homes along Old Landing and 
  Riverbend Lane will flood. Homes near Highway 1077 and in the 
  Tantella Ranch Road area will flood.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...The entrance road to Camp Tchefuncte will 
  flood. The campgrounds will be inaccessible by auto and evacuation 
  of the campground area is advised. Homes between Tantella Ranch 
  Road and the river as well as homes on Trinchard Road and Louisiana
  Highway 1077 will be threatened.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Tchefuncte River camp grounds will be under 
  a few inches of water. The Goodbee commumunity is threatened with 
  flooding. Water will invade Camp Tchefuncte's parking lot. Vehicles
  must be removed to higher ground.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water will invade Camp Tchefuncte's parking 
  lot. Vehicles must be removed to higher ground.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The Camp Tchefuncte softball field will be 
  under water. The camp parking lot is threatened with flooding and 
  vehicles are advised to be moved if higher river stages are 
  anticipated.


&&

LAT...LON 3059 9018 3059 9022 3048 9014 3049 9009




$$

914 
WGUS84 KLIX 141533
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom affecting St. Tammany Parish 

The Tchefuncte River Above U.S. Highway 190 Near Covington affecting St.
Tammany Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC103-142113-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0104.000000T0000Z-160814T2113Z/
/FLSL1.3.ER.160812T1942Z.160813T0730Z.160814T1513Z.NR/
1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom.
* until this afternoon.
* At 10:00 AM Sunday the stage was 16.1 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage noon today.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Areas of Spring Park and Albert Thompson 
  Road will be inundated. Homes will flood if the river rises higher.
  Evacuation of those areas is recommended.

&&

LAT...LON 3062 9019 3062 9023 3059 9023 3059 9018




$$

LAC103-152132-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0090.000000T0000Z-160816T0400Z/
/CUSL1.3.ER.160812T1836Z.160814T0115Z.160815T2200Z.NR/
1033 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tchefuncte River Above U.S. Highway 190 Near Covington.
* until Monday evening.
* At 9:30 AM Sunday the stage was 28.2 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* Impact...At 28.0 feet...Flowers estates will be inundated. A few 
  homes not elevated will flood. Homes along Old Landing and 
  Riverbend Lane will flood. Homes near Highway 1077 and in the 
  Tantella Ranch Road area will flood.
* Impact...At 26.0 feet...The entrance road to Camp Tchefuncte will 
  flood. The campgrounds will be inaccessible by auto and evacuation 
  of the campground area is advised. Homes between Tantella Ranch 
  Road and the river as well as homes on Trinchard Road and Louisiana
  Highway 1077 will be threatened.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Tchefuncte River camp grounds will be under 
  a few inches of water. The Goodbee commumunity is threatened with 
  flooding. Water will invade Camp Tchefuncte's parking lot. Vehicles
  must be removed to higher ground.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...Water will invade Camp Tchefuncte's parking 
  lot. Vehicles must be removed to higher ground.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...The Camp Tchefuncte softball field will be 
  under water. The camp parking lot is threatened with flooding and 
  vehicles are advised to be moved if higher river stages are 
  anticipated.


&&

LAT...LON 3059 9018 3059 9022 3048 9014 3049 9009




$$

849 
WGUS84 KLIX 141909
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
209 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

...The flood warning has been cancelled for the following river in 
Louisiana...
 
The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom affecting St. Tammany Parish


&&

LAC103-141939-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0104.000000T0000Z-160814T2113Z/
/FLSL1.3.ER.160812T1942Z.160813T0730Z.160814T1535Z.NR/
209 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2016

The Flood Warning has cancelled for
  The Tchefuncte River Near Folsom.
* At 1:00 PM Sunday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 10:35 AM Sunday.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has fallen below flood stage.  No flooding
  is expected.


&&

LAT...LON 3062 9019 3062 9023 3059 9023 3059 9018




$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
909 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Quick update on the data from the morning sounding. Obviously we
are in record territory. The PW is at 2.8 inches... which is near
the all time max as has been the case the past 48 hours with this
tropical airmass. It is a saturated heavy rain profile with a
long skinny CAPE area. Warm cloud depth is nearly 1600 feet. Some
CoCoRaHS reports from just north of Baton Rouge have 10 inches
from yesterday and overnight. Legacy storm total rainfall amounts
since 10pm last night are close to observations and are what we
are using operationally... dual pol is a significant overestimate. Near
11 inches over central St Helena Parish, near 9 inches over parts
of northern East Baton Rouge Parish and northern Livingston
Parish.

Krautmann

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Heavy rainfall event continues across the area. Synopsis shows a
weaker surface and mid level trough with high pressure aloft that
is venting the system. All are virtually overhead of the CWA. To
say ample moisture is in place throughout the atmospheric column
is a huge understatement. The 00z LIX sounding from yesterday showed
an astoundingly high 2.70" for precip water. The 3 prior soundings
were around that value which are likely new daily records maxes.
For reference, that is higher than some soundings observed here
during tropical cyclones and the 2.78" is even close to an all
time record. With such deep tropical moisture in place, any storms
of moderate intensity will very efficient rain producers and could
result in localized flooding. 2"/hr rainfall rates are certainly
possible with more intense storms and rates higher than that could
occur for short durations. In addition, overall storm motion could
be slow at times and in combination with periods of training,
flash flooding is a big concern for today. It should be noted that
dual pol rainfall amounts are erroneous and legacy precip products
are recommended at this time.

Current radar shows around 3/4 of the CWA being impacted by a wide
swath of showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of heavy rainfall at
this time is located along the LA/MS border.  Meso and even global
models suggest a shift of this precip the south and west, towards
Baton Rouge and New Orleans metro areas could occur later this
morning and into the afternoon. Will have to monitor for flash
flooding and warnings are likely at some point.

Flash Flood Watch remains the same in areal coverage and
duration. Its possible that it may need to be extended into
Saturday afternoon but thinking if thats the case, it will need
to be trimmed westward as the bulk of rain begins to shift
westward. Looking at rainfall totals for the rest of the current
watch, additional 3 to 6 inches will be possible through today and
tonight as a general average. Locally higher amounts are expected.

LONG TERM...
An upper trough moving eastward across the midsection of the country
over the weekend while the Bermuda ridge spreads further west and
causes the mid level trough overhead to shift further west as well.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will follow suit and have adjusted
the pops accordingly. Highest rain chances will mainly be along and
west of I-55 but overall qpf looks to be on a downward trend as the
trough starts to weaken, but that reduction may not occur until
later on Saturday and into Sunday.

A more typical but still active summertime pattern will begin to
setup early next week and could continue for the remainder of the
week. Models show upper level ridges remaining in place east and
west of the region. This will keep the CWA in a shear zone between
those 2 features and within an area of less subsidence. Ample
moisture still in place combined with normal daytime heating should
promote numerous afternoon thunderstorms.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
Carrying SHRA or TSRA at all sites through the day with timing
being the biggest question in the forecast for the different
terminals. IFR conditions will result when rain or thunder moves
over any particular site. Waterspout activity will also be
prevalent through the next few days for those near shore
terminals.

MARINE...
Broad low over southern Mississippi will continue its very slow
progress westward today. The combo of the pressure gradient and
the amount of shower and thunderstorm activity today will lead to
increased winds and seas at times but still generally lower than
yesterday. For this reason, the SCA will be allowed to expire and
be replaced with exercise caution statements across the coastal
waters.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Orange.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Flash Flood Watch tonight into Saturday morning.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  75  83  75 /  90  80  70  20
BTR  82  76  82  76 /  90  90  80  30
ASD  83  77  86  76 /  90  80  50  20
MSY  81  76  85  79 /  90  80  60  20
GPT  82  78  86  78 /  90  60  50  20
PQL  84  77  86  77 /  90  50  50  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1125 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-130430-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1125 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SLIDELL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
818 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ036-047-048-121415-
EAST FELICIANA-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-
818 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WEST BATON ROUGE...
NORTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE AND SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA
PARISHES...

AT 818 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SLAUGHTER...OR
NEAR JACKSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...PORT ALLEN...JACKSON...SLAUGHTER...
MERRYDALE...BROWNFIELDS AND BATON ROUGE AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3078 9125 3079 9124 3080 9124 3081 9123
      3083 9123 3085 9122 3083 9103 3043 9101
      3045 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1318Z 004DEG 14KT 3077 9114

24/RR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
819 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ035-036-MSZ068-121345-
WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
819 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA...
NORTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON COUNTIES...

AT 819 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPILLMAN...OR
13 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...ST. FRANCISVILLE...WAKEFIELD AND SPILLMAN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3109 9139 3108 9118 3079 9116 3080 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1319Z 004DEG 14KT 3102 9130

24/RR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
929 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ034>036-047-048-121530-
WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-POINTE COUPEE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST
BATON ROUGE-
929 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WEST BATON
ROUGE...SOUTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA...SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE...
NORTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE AND WESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES...

AT 928 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAKEFIELD...OR
NEAR JACKSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZACHARY...BAKER...JACKSON...ST. FRANCISVILLE...SLAUGHTER...
WAKEFIELD AND SPILLMAN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3093 9140 3094 9119 3059 9111 3057 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1428Z 356DEG 11KT 3087 9129

24/RR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
933 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

MSZ068-121530-
WILKINSON-
933 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN WILKINSON COUNTY...

AT 933 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GARDEN CITY...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTREVILLE AND WOODVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3135 9115 3133 9113 3132 9111 3107 9106
      3100 9106 3100 9128 3133 9132 3135 9119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 356DEG 11KT 3128 9122

24/RR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1023 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ034-035-121630-
WEST FELICIANA-POINTE COUPEE-
1023 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WEST FELICIANA AND
CENTRAL POINTE COUPEE PARISHES...

AT 1023 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ST.
FRANCISVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW ROADS...ST. FRANCISVILLE AND MORGANZA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3095 9141 3081 9128 3059 9154 3080 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 052DEG 8KT 3084 9142

24/RR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1123 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ034-035-046-121730-
WEST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-POINTE COUPEE-
1123 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WEST FELICIANA...
SOUTHERN POINTE COUPEE AND NORTHWESTERN IBERVILLE PARISHES...

AT 1122 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MORGANZA...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW ROADS...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT
20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW ROADS...LIVONIA...FORDOCHE...MORGANZA AND LOTTIE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED
AREA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3062 9175 3063 9174 3066 9175 3067 9173
      3068 9173 3087 9159 3078 9140 3038 9160
      3039 9163 3044 9164 3048 9169 3050 9170
      3050 9175 3051 9175 3051 9173 3057 9176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1622Z 028DEG 16KT 3076 9154

24/RR