Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
423 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE BRINGING PW VALUES AS HIGH AS 2.8 INCHES WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S WEST TO MID 80S EAST DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7AM
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES WEST OF I-55 WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS EASTWARD...FROM NOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...

CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERLIKE
CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMIND STATIONARY WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER ARKANSAS
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF SWINGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7AM SATURDAY FOR ALL MARINE AREAS. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AND HIGHER INSIDE
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS...BRINGING ROUGH WATER CONDITIONS
OVER NIGHT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON
SATURDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  75  81  73  88 /  80  80  40  40
BTR  76  79  73  88 /  90  80  40  40
ASD  77  86  77  89 /  80  60  30  30
MSY  76  85  79  87 /  80  60  30  30
GPT  78  86  78  87 /  60  50  30  30
PQL  77  86  77  88 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
     538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-131400-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
430 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
WITH SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG... PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SLIDELL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
106 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S CENTREVILLE         31.07N 91.07W
08/12/2016  M10.25 INCH      WILKINSON          MS   PUBLIC

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
257 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ035-MSZ068-069-122100-
WEST FELICIANA-AMITE-WILKINSON-
257 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA
PARISH...WESTERN AMITE AND WILKINSON COUNTIES...

AT 256 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GARDEN CITY TO NEAR NORWOOD. MOVEMENT WAS WEST AT
10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTREVILLE...WOODVILLE...GLOSTER...DOLOROSA AND CROSBY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE SHOWERS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3137 9123 3135 9121 3135 9115 3132 9112
      3132 9109 3134 9107 3133 9104 3100 9103
      3100 9118 3099 9118 3098 9146 3131 9144
      3136 9130 3136 9128 3137 9126 3136 9126
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 068DEG 10KT 3138 9116 3103 9114

24/RR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ZACHARY                 30.66N 91.15W
08/12/2016                   EAST BATON ROUGE   LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL *** A 68 YEAR OLD MAN DROWNED WHILE TRYING TO
            ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS.

&&

DMANNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LIVINGSTON              30.50N 90.75W
08/12/2016  M17.09 INCH      LIVINGSTON         LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVED 17.09 INCHES OF RAIN FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT TO
            3PM. MOST THIS MORNING DURING LONG DURATION 3 INCH PER
            HOUR RATE.

&&

AK