Alert archive / Louisiana / River Flood Warnings in 2016

River Flood Warning 103, NWS New Orleans, LA

August 12, 2016Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana

NWS New Orleans, LA issued this river flood warning at Aug 12, 2016, 10:53 AM CDT for Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana. It took effect at Aug 12, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT. It was in force for 3 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 12, 2016, 10:53 AM CDT (15:53 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 12, 2016, 3:30 PM CDT
Expired
Aug 15, 2016, 8:42 PM CDT
In force
3 days
Issued by
NWS New Orleans, LA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Major

County Tangipahoa Parish, LA

The river

Written for the forecast point Tangipahoa River near Amite (AMIL1). The gauge peaked at 29.11 ft at Aug 13, 2016, 1:00 AM CDT.

actionminormoderatemajor10203008/1208/1308/1408/1508/1608/17
Action stage
18 ft
Minor stage
21 ft
Moderate stage
25 ft
Major stage
30 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 07375430, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

621 
WGUS44 KLIX 121553
FLWLIX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
1053 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...The National Weather Service in New Orleans Baton Rouge has issued
a flood warning for the following rivers in Louisiana... 

  Tangipahoa River Near Amite affecting Tangipahoa Parish

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Moderate to Major Severity for the 
following rivers in Louisiana...

  Tangipahoa River Near Robert affecting Tangipahoa Parish

...Forecast Flooding Changed from Minor to Major Severity for the 
following rivers in Louisiana...

  Tangipahoa River Near Kentwood affecting Tangipahoa Parish
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC105-132153-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0096.160812T1540Z-160816T0320Z/
/KENL1.3.ER.160812T1447Z.160814T0000Z.160815T2120Z.NR/
1053 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Minor to Major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Tangipahoa River Near Kentwood.
* until Monday evening.
* At 10:00 AM Friday the stage was 13.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near record at 
  17.0 feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood 
  stage Monday afternoon.
* Impact...At 16.5 feet...Highway 1054 bridge will be under water. 
  Inundation of secondary roads east of Highway 51 is likely and 
  several homes will be threatened. Evacuation to higher ground for 
  persons in low-lying areas is recommended. There will be water on 
  Louisiana Highway 440.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Inundation of secondary roads east of 
  Highway 51 is likely and several homes will be threatened. 
  Evacuation to higher ground for persons in low-lying areas is 
  recommended. Louisiana Highway 1054 bridge will be threatened by 
  strong current carrying debris. There will be water on Highway 440.
* Impact...At 15.5 feet...Evacuation of farm animals and farming 
  equipment from the flood plain to higher ground is recommended. 
  There will be water on Louisiana Highway 1054. Secondary roads off 
  Highway 1054 and Highway 51 may be closed. Several homes east of 
  Highway 51 will be threatened.
* Impact...At 14.5 feet...There will be water on Louisiana Highway 
  1054. Secondary roads off Highway 1054 and Highway 51 may be 
  closed. Several homes east of Highway 51 will be threatened. 
  Pasture land, woodlands, and farms in low lying areas will be 
  flooded.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Pasture land, woodlands, and farms in low 
  lying areas will be flooded.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet...Water will invade the commercial property 
  adjacent to the river

&&
 
LAT...LON 3097 9042 3098 9047 3090 9050 3090 9044

&&

LAT...LON 3097 9042 3098 9047 3090 9050 3090 9044




$$

LAC105-132153-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FL.W.0103.160812T2133Z-160816T0142Z/
/AMIL1.3.ER.160812T2133Z.160813T1800Z.160815T1942Z.NR/
1053 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The National Weather Service in New Orleans/Baton Rouge has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tangipahoa River Near Amite.
* from this afternoon to Monday evening.
* At 10:00 AM Friday the stage was 17.1 feet.
* Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 25.0 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.This 
  is above the March 2016 crest. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by Monday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Water will cover Highway 40 near 
  Independence. Access roads to Whispering Pines Campground will be 
  under water. Gravel pit operations will be suspended and equipment 
  threatened. Low-lying pastures and farmland near the river east of 
  Highway 51 will flood.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Gravel pit operations will be suspended and 
  equipment threatened. Low-lying pastures and farmland near the 
  river east of Highway 51 will flood.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3074 9046 3075 9050 3064 9049 3053 9036 3056 9036 3063 9044

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9046 3075 9050 3064 9049 3053 9036 3056 9036 3063 9044




$$

LAC105-132153-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ROBL1.3.ER.160812T1324Z.160814T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1053 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Forecast flooding increased from Moderate to Major severity...
The Flood Warning continues for 
 The Tangipahoa River Near Robert.
* until further notice.
* At  9:30 AM Friday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 24.5 feet by 
  Sunday morning then begin falling. This is near the March 2016 crest.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Highway 190 will be inundated from just east
  of Hammond through Robert to Bedico Creek. Highway 22 will be under
  water in many places. Some homes in Magnolia Island will flood. 
  Access to Lee's Landing will be cut off. Homes and commercial sites
  near Robert will be moderately flooded. Water will be in homes 
  along Highways 445 and 443. Highway 445 will be under water and 
  closed from Highway 190 to Interstate 12.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Water will be in homes along Highway 445 and
  Highway 443. Highway 445 will be under water and closed from 
  Highway 190 to Interstate 12. Louisiana Highway 22 will be under 
  water in many places. Access to Magnolia Island and Lee's Landing 
  will be cut off.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Evacuation of trailers at Hidden Oaks must 
  be completed. Water covers the entrance to camp grounds. Secondary 
  roads and unimproved roads north of Robert will flood as 
  Chappepeela Creek backs up. Low places on Highway 22 south of 
  Robert will be under water.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Low places along Highway 22 south of Robert 
  will be under water. Water will approach the entrance of Hidden 
  Oaks Campground. Trailers at the camp ground will be unable to be 
  moved out when the river reaches 18 feet.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Minor flooding near the river with beach 
  areas under water.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor flooding near the river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3069 9043 3069 9050 3030 9030 3036 9025

&&

LAT...LON 3069 9043 3069 9050 3030 9030 3036 9025




$$
4 follow-up statements
437 
WGUS84 KLIX 122031
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
331 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Louisiana...
 
  Tangipahoa River At Osyka affecting Pike County 
  
  Tangipahoa River Near Amite affecting Tangipahoa Parish 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC113-140231-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160815T1800Z/
/OSYM6.1.ER.160812T1130Z.160813T0600Z.160815T1200Z.NR/
331 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Tangipahoa River At Osyka.
* until Monday afternoon.
* At  3:00 PM Friday the stage was 15.6 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.5 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Monday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Pastures and woodlands along with some crop 
  land near the river will be inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 9042 3103 9048 3098 9048 3097 9042




$$

LAC105-140231-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0103.160812T2030Z-160815T2315Z/
/AMIL1.3.ER.160812T1840Z.160813T1800Z.160815T1715Z.NR/
331 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tangipahoa River Near Amite.
* until Monday evening.
* At  3:00 PM Friday the stage was 22.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 25.5 feet by 
  tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Monday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Water will cover Highway 40 near 
  Independence. Access roads to Whispering Pines Campground will be 
  under water. Gravel pit operations will be suspended and equipment 
  threatened. Low-lying pastures and farmland near the river east of 
  Highway 51 will flood.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Gravel pit operations will be suspended and 
  equipment threatened. Low-lying pastures and farmland near the 
  river east of Highway 51 will flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9046 3075 9050 3064 9049 3053 9036 3056 9036 3063 9044




$$
790 
WGUS84 KLIX 130006
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
706 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tangipahoa River Near Amite affecting Tangipahoa Parish 
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC105-140606-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0103.000000T0000Z-160816T0615Z/
/AMIL1.3.ER.160812T1840Z.160813T1200Z.160816T0015Z.NR/
706 PM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...Flood Warning extended until late Monday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Tangipahoa River Near Amite.
* until late Monday night.
* At  6:00 PM Friday the stage was 24.7 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 27.0 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Monday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 25.0 feet...Water will cover Highway 40 near 
  Independence. Access roads to Whispering Pines Campground will be 
  under water. Gravel pit operations will be suspended and equipment 
  threatened. Low-lying pastures and farmland near the river east of 
  Highway 51 will flood.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Gravel pit operations will be suspended and 
  equipment threatened. Low-lying pastures and farmland near the 
  river east of Highway 51 will flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9046 3075 9050 3064 9049 3053 9036 3056 9036 3063 9044




$$
220 
WGUS84 KLIX 131440
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
940 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...Louisiana...
 
The Tangipahoa River At Osyka affecting Pike County 

The Tangipahoa River Near Amite affecting Tangipahoa Parish 

The Tangipahoa River Near Robert affecting Tangipahoa Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 12 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

MSC113-142040-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160815T0800Z/
/OSYM6.1.ER.160812T1130Z.160814T0600Z.160815T0200Z.NO/
940 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...Flood Warning extended until late Sunday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Tangipahoa River At Osyka.
* until late Sunday night.
* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 14.7 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage by early 
  this afternoon and then continue to rise until cresting at around 
  16.5 feet by late tonight. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage by tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Pastures and woodlands along with some crop 
  land near the river will be inundated.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 9042 3103 9048 3098 9048 3097 9042



$$

LAC105-142040-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0103.000000T0000Z-160814T2200Z/
/AMIL1.3.ER.160812T1840Z.160813T0745Z.160814T1600Z.NR/
940 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tangipahoa River Near Amite.
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At 9:00 AM Saturday the stage was 23.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river has already crested and is expected to fall to 
  below flood stage by tomorrow mid morning.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Gravel pit operations will be suspended and 
  equipment threatened. Low-lying pastures and farmland near the 
  river east of Highway 51 will flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3074 9046 3075 9050 3064 9049 3053 9036 3056 9036 3063 9044



$$

LAC105-142040-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ROBL1.3.ER.160812T1324Z.160814T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
940 AM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tangipahoa River Near Robert.
* until further notice.
* At 8:30 AM Saturday the stage was 26.0 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to continue rising until cresting at 
  around 26.5 feet by late tonight.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Highway 190 will be inundated from just east
  of Hammond through Robert to Bedico Creek. Highway 22 will be under
  water in many places. Some homes in Magnolia Island will flood. 
  Access to Lee's Landing will be cut off. Homes and commercial sites
  near Robert will be moderately flooded. Water will be in homes 
  along Highways 445 and 443. Highway 445 will be under water and 
  closed from Highway 190 to Interstate 12.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Water will be in homes along Highway 445 and
  Highway 443. Highway 445 will be under water and closed from 
  Highway 190 to Interstate 12. Louisiana Highway 22 will be under 
  water in many places. Access to Magnolia Island and Lee's Landing 
  will be cut off.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Evacuation of trailers at Hidden Oaks must 
  be completed. Water covers the entrance to camp grounds. Secondary 
  roads and unimproved roads north of Robert will flood as 
  Chappepeela Creek backs up. Low places on Highway 22 south of 
  Robert will be under water.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Low places along Highway 22 south of Robert 
  will be under water. Water will approach the entrance of Hidden 
  Oaks Campground. Trailers at the camp ground will be unable to be 
  moved out when the river reaches 18 feet.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Minor flooding near the river with beach 
  areas under water.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor flooding near the river.


&&

LAT...LON 3069 9043 3069 9050 3030 9030 3036 9025



$$
548 
WGUS84 KLIX 140151
FLSLIX
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA 
850 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...
 
  Tangipahoa River Near Amite affecting Tangipahoa Parish
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...

  Tangipahoa River Near Robert affecting Tangipahoa Parish 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Forecast crests are based upon rainfall that has occurred along with 
anticipated rain for the next 24 hours. Adjustments to the forecasts 
will be made if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Remember, two feet of 
rushing water can carry away most vehicles including pickups.  Turn 
around and don't drown!

A followup product will be issued later. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather 
Radio, local tv and radio stations...or your cable provider, for the 
latest information. The latest graphical hydrologic information can 
also be found at Weather.Gov.

&&

LAC105-140220-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FL.W.0103.000000T0000Z-160814T2200Z/
/AMIL1.3.ER.160812T1840Z.160813T0745Z.160813T2034Z.NR/
850 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tangipahoa River Near Amite.
* At  8:00 PM Saturday the stage was 19.7 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at 3:34 PM Saturday.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 10.7 feet by Monday 
  morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3074 9046 3075 9050 3064 9049 3053 9036 3056 9036 3063 9044




$$

LAC105-150750-
/O.CON.KLIX.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/ROBL1.3.ER.160812T1324Z.160814T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
850 PM CDT SAT AUG 13 2016

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tangipahoa River Near Robert.
* until further notice.
* At  7:30 PM Saturday the stage was 27.3 feet.
* Record flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 27.4 feet shortly
  after midnight tonight then begin falling.
* Impact...At 27.0 feet...Widespread flooding of Tangipahoa Parish 
  will continue south of Highway 190 from the Natalbany River to east
  of Bedicoe Creek. Water will be at the top of the abandoned 
  railroad trestle 100 feet downstream from the Highway 190 bridge.
* Impact...At 24.0 feet...Highway 190 will be inundated from just east
  of Hammond through Robert to Bedico Creek. Highway 22 will be under
  water in many places. Some homes in Magnolia Island will flood. 
  Access to Lee's Landing will be cut off. Homes and commercial sites
  near Robert will be moderately flooded. Water will be in homes 
  along Highways 445 and 443. Highway 445 will be under water and 
  closed from Highway 190 to Interstate 12.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Water will be in homes along Highway 445 and
  Highway 443. Highway 445 will be under water and closed from 
  Highway 190 to Interstate 12. Louisiana Highway 22 will be under 
  water in many places. Access to Magnolia Island and Lee's Landing 
  will be cut off.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Evacuation of trailers at Hidden Oaks must 
  be completed. Water covers the entrance to camp grounds. Secondary 
  roads and unimproved roads north of Robert will flood as 
  Chappepeela Creek backs up. Low places on Highway 22 south of 
  Robert will be under water.
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Low places along Highway 22 south of Robert 
  will be under water. Water will approach the entrance of Hidden 
  Oaks Campground. Trailers at the camp ground will be unable to be 
  moved out when the river reaches 18 feet.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...Minor flooding near the river with beach 
  areas under water.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor flooding near the river.


&&

LAT...LON 3069 9043 3069 9050 3030 9030 3036 9025




$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New Orleans, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Aug 12, 9:09 AM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 12, 9:09 AM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
909 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
Quick update on the data from the morning sounding. Obviously we
are in record territory. The PW is at 2.8 inches... which is near
the all time max as has been the case the past 48 hours with this
tropical airmass. It is a saturated heavy rain profile with a
long skinny CAPE area. Warm cloud depth is nearly 1600 feet. Some
CoCoRaHS reports from just north of Baton Rouge have 10 inches
from yesterday and overnight. Legacy storm total rainfall amounts
since 10pm last night are close to observations and are what we
are using operationally... dual pol is a significant overestimate. Near
11 inches over central St Helena Parish, near 9 inches over parts
of northern East Baton Rouge Parish and northern Livingston
Parish.

Krautmann

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 435 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Heavy rainfall event continues across the area. Synopsis shows a
weaker surface and mid level trough with high pressure aloft that
is venting the system. All are virtually overhead of the CWA. To
say ample moisture is in place throughout the atmospheric column
is a huge understatement. The 00z LIX sounding from yesterday showed
an astoundingly high 2.70" for precip water. The 3 prior soundings
were around that value which are likely new daily records maxes.
For reference, that is higher than some soundings observed here
during tropical cyclones and the 2.78" is even close to an all
time record. With such deep tropical moisture in place, any storms
of moderate intensity will very efficient rain producers and could
result in localized flooding. 2"/hr rainfall rates are certainly
possible with more intense storms and rates higher than that could
occur for short durations. In addition, overall storm motion could
be slow at times and in combination with periods of training,
flash flooding is a big concern for today. It should be noted that
dual pol rainfall amounts are erroneous and legacy precip products
are recommended at this time.

Current radar shows around 3/4 of the CWA being impacted by a wide
swath of showers and thunderstorms. The bulk of heavy rainfall at
this time is located along the LA/MS border.  Meso and even global
models suggest a shift of this precip the south and west, towards
Baton Rouge and New Orleans metro areas could occur later this
morning and into the afternoon. Will have to monitor for flash
flooding and warnings are likely at some point.

Flash Flood Watch remains the same in areal coverage and
duration. Its possible that it may need to be extended into
Saturday afternoon but thinking if thats the case, it will need
to be trimmed westward as the bulk of rain begins to shift
westward. Looking at rainfall totals for the rest of the current
watch, additional 3 to 6 inches will be possible through today and
tonight as a general average. Locally higher amounts are expected.

LONG TERM...
An upper trough moving eastward across the midsection of the country
over the weekend while the Bermuda ridge spreads further west and
causes the mid level trough overhead to shift further west as well.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will follow suit and have adjusted
the pops accordingly. Highest rain chances will mainly be along and
west of I-55 but overall qpf looks to be on a downward trend as the
trough starts to weaken, but that reduction may not occur until
later on Saturday and into Sunday.

A more typical but still active summertime pattern will begin to
setup early next week and could continue for the remainder of the
week. Models show upper level ridges remaining in place east and
west of the region. This will keep the CWA in a shear zone between
those 2 features and within an area of less subsidence. Ample
moisture still in place combined with normal daytime heating should
promote numerous afternoon thunderstorms.

MEFFER

AVIATION...
Carrying SHRA or TSRA at all sites through the day with timing
being the biggest question in the forecast for the different
terminals. IFR conditions will result when rain or thunder moves
over any particular site. Waterspout activity will also be
prevalent through the next few days for those near shore
terminals.

MARINE...
Broad low over southern Mississippi will continue its very slow
progress westward today. The combo of the pressure gradient and
the amount of shower and thunderstorm activity today will lead to
increased winds and seas at times but still generally lower than
yesterday. For this reason, the SCA will be allowed to expire and
be replaced with exercise caution statements across the coastal
waters.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Orange.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Flash Flood Watch tonight into Saturday morning.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  82  75  83  75 /  90  80  70  20
BTR  82  76  82  76 /  90  90  80  30
ASD  83  77  86  76 /  90  80  50  20
MSY  81  76  85  79 /  90  80  60  20
GPT  82  78  86  78 /  90  60  50  20
PQL  84  77  86  77 /  90  50  50  20

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for LAZ034>037-039-
     040-046>050-056>072.

GM...None.
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MSZ068>071-077-
     080>082.

GM...None.
&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 12, 5:09 AM CDT, 5 hours 44 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
509 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>037-
039-040-046>050-056>072-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-122215-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA
RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND
LOUISIANA OUT 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-
WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-
ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-
UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-NORTHERN TANGIPAHOA-
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
509 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER AREA
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. A
FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT ANY FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN SLIDELL.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 12, 7:52 AM CDT, 3 hours 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
752 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CENTREVILLE             31.09N 91.07W
08/12/2016                   WILKINSON          MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER ENTERING HOMES IN THE BALLACK COMMUNITY OF
            CENTREVILLE. ROADS FLOODED AND WATER RESCUES ONGOING.

&&

AK
Special weather statement, Aug 12, 8:18 AM CDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
818 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ036-047-048-121415-
EAST FELICIANA-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-
818 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL WEST BATON ROUGE...
NORTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE AND SOUTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA
PARISHES...

AT 818 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SLAUGHTER...OR
NEAR JACKSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BATON ROUGE...ZACHARY...BAKER...PORT ALLEN...JACKSON...SLAUGHTER...
MERRYDALE...BROWNFIELDS AND BATON ROUGE AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3078 9125 3079 9124 3080 9124 3081 9123
      3083 9123 3085 9122 3083 9103 3043 9101
      3045 9132
TIME...MOT...LOC 1318Z 004DEG 14KT 3077 9114

24/RR
Special weather statement, Aug 12, 8:19 AM CDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
819 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ035-036-MSZ068-121345-
WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
819 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA...
NORTHWESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN WILKINSON COUNTIES...

AT 819 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPILLMAN...OR
13 MILES NORTHWEST OF JACKSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSON...ST. FRANCISVILLE...WAKEFIELD AND SPILLMAN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3109 9139 3108 9118 3079 9116 3080 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 1319Z 004DEG 14KT 3102 9130

24/RR
Special weather statement, Aug 12, 9:29 AM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
929 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ034>036-047-048-121530-
WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-POINTE COUPEE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST
BATON ROUGE-
929 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL WEST BATON
ROUGE...SOUTHEASTERN WEST FELICIANA...SOUTHEASTERN POINTE COUPEE...
NORTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE AND WESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISHES...

AT 928 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAKEFIELD...OR
NEAR JACKSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZACHARY...BAKER...JACKSON...ST. FRANCISVILLE...SLAUGHTER...
WAKEFIELD AND SPILLMAN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3093 9140 3094 9119 3059 9111 3057 9142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1428Z 356DEG 11KT 3087 9129

24/RR
Special weather statement, Aug 12, 9:33 AM CDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
933 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

MSZ068-121530-
WILKINSON-
933 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN WILKINSON COUNTY...

AT 933 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF GARDEN CITY...OR 21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTREVILLE AND WOODVILLE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3135 9115 3133 9113 3132 9111 3107 9106
      3100 9106 3100 9128 3133 9132 3135 9119
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 356DEG 11KT 3128 9122

24/RR
Special weather statement, Aug 12, 10:23 AM CDT, 30 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1023 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

LAZ034-035-121630-
WEST FELICIANA-POINTE COUPEE-
1023 AM CDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WEST FELICIANA AND
CENTRAL POINTE COUPEE PARISHES...

AT 1023 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ST.
FRANCISVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEW ROADS...ST. FRANCISVILLE AND MORGANZA.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3095 9141 3081 9128 3059 9154 3080 9173
TIME...MOT...LOC 1523Z 052DEG 8KT 3084 9142

24/RR

The office that day

Everything else NWS New Orleans, LA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 11, 7:05 PM CDTSmall Craft AdvisoryLIX12 hr
Aug 11, 9:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXAscension, Livingston59 min
Aug 12, 1:36 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXSaint Tammany24 min
Aug 12, 1:55 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXSaint Helena, Tangipahoa65 min
Aug 12, 2:09 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLIXSaint Helena, Tangipahoa3 hr
Aug 12, 3:33 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXEast Baton Rouge27 min
Aug 12, 4:16 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, Saint Helena, West Feliciana3 hr
Aug 12, 4:23 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, Livingston, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington, West Baton Rouge112 min
Aug 12, 4:32 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXAscension, Assumption, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafourche, Livingston and 10 more118 min
Aug 12, 5:06 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLIXSaint Helena, Tangipahoa3 hr
Aug 12, 5:40 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXLivingston65 min
Aug 12, 5:41 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXEast Feliciana64 min
Aug 12, 5:42 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXEast Feliciana63 min
Aug 12, 6:00 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLIXAscension, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, Saint Tammany and 3 more3 hr
Aug 12, 6:21 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLIXSaint Helena3 hr
Aug 12, 6:24 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXJefferson36 min
Aug 12, 6:27 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Helena44 hr
Aug 12, 6:27 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLIX63 min
Aug 12, 6:36 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXAscension, Assumption, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafourche, Livingston and 9 more3 hr
Aug 12, 6:44 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXLivingston5 days
Aug 12, 6:44 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Helena4 days
Aug 12, 6:52 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXTangipahoa49 hr
Aug 12, 7:05 AM CDTFlash Flood WarningLIXAscension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee and 6 more6 hr
Aug 12, 7:08 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXWest Feliciana67 min
Aug 12, 7:12 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXWashington48 hr
Aug 12, 7:31 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXSaint Tammany29 min
Aug 12, 7:33 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLIX57 min
Aug 12, 7:37 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLIX38 min
Aug 12, 8:18 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXEast Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge57 min
Aug 12, 8:19 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXWest Feliciana26 min
Aug 12, 9:05 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryLIXAscension, Assumption, Iberville, Jefferson, Lafourche, Orleans and 8 more3 hr
Aug 12, 9:14 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLIXSaint Helena, Tangipahoa3 hr
Aug 12, 9:29 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXWest Feliciana61 min
Aug 12, 9:30 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge53 hr
Aug 12, 9:30 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXAscension, Livingston8 days
Aug 12, 9:36 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany5 days
Aug 12, 10:05 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana3 hr
Aug 12, 10:06 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXTangipahoa55 hr
Aug 12, 10:23 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXPointe Coupee, West Feliciana67 min
Aug 12, 10:42 AM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Saint Helena, West Feliciana3 hr
Aug 12, 11:01 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLIX59 min
Aug 12, 11:05 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLIX55 min
Aug 12, 11:23 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXPointe Coupee67 min
Aug 12, 11:25 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany51 hr
Aug 12, 11:25 AM CDTRiver Flood WarningLIXSaint Tammany71 hr
Aug 12, 11:34 AM CDTSmall Craft AdvisoryLIX10 hr
Aug 12, 12:05 PM CDTSpecial Marine WarningLIX55 min
Aug 12, 12:09 PM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLIXSaint Helena, Tangipahoa3 hr
Aug 12, 12:31 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementLIXPointe Coupee59 min
Aug 12, 12:57 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLIXAscension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee and 5 more6 hr
Aug 12, 1:21 PM CDTFlash Flood Warning EmergencyLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Saint Helena, West Feliciana114 min
Aug 12, 6:50 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLIXAscension, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Livingston, Pointe Coupee and 3 more4 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2016Every river flood warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.