Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Jackson, KY

035 
WWUS53 KJKL 021952
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KYC195-022015-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-160502T2015Z/
PIKE KY-
352 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY...

AT 351 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MCANDREWS...OR
8 MILES SOUTH OF WILLIAMSON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOREST HILLS...WOODMAN...JAMBOREE...BELFRY...MCANDREWS...COLEMAN...BOARD
TREE...MAJESTIC...PHELPS...HUDDY...CANADA...AFLEX...ARGO...SIDNEY...HARDY AND
EDGARTON.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 119 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13
AND 23.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3744 8233 3762 8238 3766 8225 3765 8222
      3762 8221 3762 8219 3765 8218 3762 8218
      3758 8213 3757 8214 3755 8213 3756 8208
      3753 8205 3755 8204 3754 8202 3754 8197
      3748 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 250DEG 39KT 3757 8222 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ABE

561 
WWUS53 KJKL 022004
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KYC195-022014-
/O.CAN.KJKL.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-160502T2015Z/
PIKE KY-
404 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3744 8233 3762 8238 3766 8225 3765 8222
      3762 8221 3762 8219 3765 8218 3762 8218
      3758 8213 3757 8214 3755 8213 3756 8208
      3753 8205 3755 8204 3754 8202 3754 8197
      3748 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 250DEG 39KT 3762 8205 

$$

ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. UPSTREAM IN TN...A WAVE IS
TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS...ALREADY THIS
MORNING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EVEN INSTABILITY STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OR TWO. THUS HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING POPS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST AND UPDATED THE FLOOD WATCH.
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND DEW POINTS STILL AROUND 60...THE
CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT AND A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WITH THIS
INCREASE NOW WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE VERY MOIST. ALSO
NOTING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OVER ARKANSAS
AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY POORLY...SO OUTSIDE OF
CURRENT TRENDS...NOT MUCH TO KEY OFF OF AT THE MOMENT.
CLEARLY...THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING IN WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS COME UP JUST A
TOUCH TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...WITH THE 3
HOUR ALSO COMING UP A TOUCH TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES. CLEARLY WITH
ANY CONVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HARD TO OBTAIN...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS VERY VIABLE. NOT MANY CHANGES THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SOME SMALL
POPS A BIT EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH
SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND
NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT
GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY
STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH
COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY
ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-032200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...
MONTICELLO
253 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KYZ080-084-104-106-108-111-032200-
LAUREL-MCCREARY-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONDON...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE
253 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL
BE STRONG THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...DUE TO THE GROUND
ALREADY BEING VERY SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF FLOODING...HAIL...
OR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

KYZ085>088-107-109-110-112>120-032200-
WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...PAINSVILLE...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
253 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 138 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...DUE TO THE GROUND
ALREADY BEING VERY SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF FLOODING...HAIL...
OR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.

KAS/SHALLENBERGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
314 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             LOST CREEK              37.48N 83.33W
05/02/2016  M1.00 INCH       BREATHITT          KY   PUBLIC

            INFORMATION VIA SOCIAL MEDIA SITE.

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0314 PM     HAIL             1 E MOUSIE              37.42N 82.86W
05/02/2016  E1.25 INCH       KNOTT              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TBREWER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             BUCKHORN                37.35N 83.47W
05/02/2016  E1.75 INCH       PERRY              KY   PUBLIC

&&

DJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
327 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             ROWDY                   37.42N 83.21W
05/02/2016  E1.00 INCH       PERRY              KY   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

DJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     HAIL             WHITESBURG              37.12N 82.83W
05/02/2016  M1.25 INCH       LETCHER            KY   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE AND LARGER HAIL REPORTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JMWIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
332 PM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             PIKEVILLE               37.48N 82.51W
05/02/2016  M1.00 INCH       PIKE               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMWIX