Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Jackson, KY

Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY

552 
WGUS63 KJKL 021454
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KYZ080-084>088-104-106>120-030000-
/O.CON.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160503T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAUREL-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-
WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONDON...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...
CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...
HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...
COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
1054 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH 
  CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...ELLIOTT. IN 
  NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...JOHNSON AND MARTIN. IN SOUTH CENTRAL 
  KENTUCKY...LAUREL...MCCREARY AND WHITLEY. IN SOUTHEAST 
  KENTUCKY...BELL...BREATHITT...CLAY...FLOYD...HARLAN...KNOTT... 
  KNOX...LEE...LESLIE...LETCHER...MAGOFFIN...MORGAN...OWSLEY... 
  PERRY...PIKE AND WOLFE. 

* THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
  PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
  THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME RAINFALL COULD LINGER
  IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
  1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH THE
  GROUND ALREADY VERY SATURATED AND CREEKS AND STREAMS RUNNING
  HIGH...THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO MORE FLASH
  FLOODING.

* ROADS COULD BECOME BLOCKED OR WASHED OUT BY FLASH FLOODING. IF 
  YOU ENCOUNTER A FLOODED ROAD...BE SURE TO TURN AROUND...DON'T 
  DROWN. HOUSES AND BUSINESSES IN THE VICINITY OF CREEKS... 
  STREAMS...AND RIVERS COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED BY FLOODING. 
  CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND ANY WARNINGS TODAY AS 
  CONDITIONS COULD DETERIORATE VERY QUICKLY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

SHALLENBERGER

469 
WGUS63 KJKL 030125
FFAJKL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
925 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KYZ080-084>088-104-106>120-030230-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-160503T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAUREL-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-
WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-
LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONDON...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...
CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...
CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...
HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...
COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
925 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN CONTINUES TO LIGHTEN AND EXIT
THE REGION. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THAT MAY OCCUR WILL POSE NO
FURTHER FLASH FLOODING THREAT. 

$$
JMW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH
SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND
NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT
GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY
STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH
COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. CIGS COULD COME DOWN TO MVFR IN THE STRONGER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT...LOW CIGS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP FALLING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY IFR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WILL TREND LOWER WITH MVFR THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1200 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030700-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BROADHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...
PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...
JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...ELKHORN CITY...
PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
1200 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN CREEKS AND
STREAMS RUNNING NEAR BANKFULL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF FLOODING...HAIL...
OR DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SHALLENBERGER/GREIF