Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.UPDATE...Lots of convective debris showing up in the visible
imagery this morning over the northwest third of the forecast area in
immediate advance of the mid level trof axis. Meanwhile to the south,
mostly clear skies have allowed mixing to crank up and the beginnings
of some cumulus are being seen. Also observed in the satellite is an
outflow boundary moving out of east central LA. The differential
heating occurring between the cloud cover and clear skies looks to be
most pronounced over the southwest this morning. Believe convective
initiation will occur there by 16Z as the outflow begins to plow
into the developing cumulus field.

A limited threat of locally severe storms will exist again today as
anomalously cool temps aloft combine with low level warmth to
produce decent lapse rates. May see some hail with the stronger
storms if they can develop some tilt. With the orientation of the
winds aloft, storms with primarily eastward moving outflows should
have the best chance of producing damaging wind gusts./26/

&&

.AVIATION...The mixed bag of morning flight restricted categories
has now improved and all areas are VFR. The focus for today will be
timing convection and the associated lower flight categories from
that. Expecting an earlier start than typical with most activity in
the 17-00z time window and will highlight the best times for storms
from site to site as we get closer to TAF issuance. Look for VFR
conditions to exist in the wake of storms and for much of the
evening and night. However, there will be the opportunity for most
sites to see MVFR conditions by 10z and will cover that accordingly.
/CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

UPDATE...

The forecast is generally on track for today, but have made some
minor adjustments to the near term to cut back on the early morning
thunderstorm chances along/south of I-20 and to mention fog over
eastern MS. /EC/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Today through Monday night)...The near term will be
headlined by a continuation of improved rain chances with some
slight heat relief.

Latest upper air analysis shows a mid/upper shortwave trough easing
into the region. The approach of this feature was the impetus for
increased precip coverage on Saturday, and with it now in closer
proximity, we can expect to see a trend toward wetter continue.
Though much of the residual convection from Saturday died off
overnight, new development along outflow from a dying complex over
North MS has been festering across the Delta through the early
morning hours. There is a good chance this will continue to further
develop downstream through the morning. In fact, most models suggest
development will occur much earlier in the day today. Lower heights
with the shortwave will result in steeper mid level lapse rates, and
unlike yesterday deep layer shear is forecast to be more impressive
(around 30 kt) through much of the day. This will fuel the potential
for additional strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, which will continue to be highlighted in the
HWO/graphics. Hail will continue to be less likely as freezing
levels remain quite high. Isolated runoff issues from locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible given the ample deep layer moisture
in place.

Monday looks to be quite similar to today, as the shortwave trough
remains nearby. Consequently, we could once again see showers/storms
develop earlier in the day. There could again be some strong storms
around, but given uncertainty with respect to how convection will
evolve (for instance, will early day activity put a damper on
instability) we will hold off on mentioning this concern in the HWO
at this point. The increased prevalence of clouds/precip will likely
shave a few degrees off high temps both today and tomorrow. /DL/

Tuesday through Saturday night...

The hot subtropical ridge will build back over the ArkLaMiss during
the mid to late week as the current trough shifts east and weakens.
Global models still forecast the trough to linger as a weak mid/upper
level shear axis over the central/eastern Gulf states, and this
combined with precipitable water values ~1.75 inches should provide
support for isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity,
particularly over eastern/southern portions of the forecast area.
Forecasted thermodynamic parameters would support a few strong to
severe microbursts.

From Thursday into Friday, more pronounced troughing over the Upper
Midwest and Northeast could mean greater influence from the
westerlies over northern portions of the ArkLaMiss, resulting in
greater potential for organized strong storms given increasing deep
layer shear and steepening mid level lapse rates. But there are also
signs that the mid level cap will keep a lid on deep convective
potential. Otherwise, daytime heat indices and heat stress may creep
back up to more dangerous levels by late week and into the weekend
for most of the region, and this may eventually need a mention in the
HWO. /EC/

AVIATION...Patchy fog and low clouds this morning with result in
categorical reductions at a couple local terminals, but this should
quickly dissipate after sunrise, with VFR conditions prevailing
through most of the day. SHRA/TSRA are expected to be more numerous
today, and these will result in ceiling/visby reductions, but they
should be temporary. A few of the storms could be strong, capable of
producing 30+ kt wind gusts. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  74  91  75 /  50  23  49  20
Meridian      91  73  91  74 /  63  28  54  23
Vicksburg     91  75  91  75 /  42  18  38  17
Hattiesburg   92  74  90  74 /  47  27  51  22
Natchez       90  74  90  74 /  45  19  38  19
Greenville    90  73  91  74 /  33  21  39  18
Greenwood     88  72  89  72 /  34  23  47  22

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

JAN/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-
041-060-112000-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-ADAMS-
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM
TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>059-061>066-072>074-112000-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
254 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM
TODAY. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AND ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BE BETWEEN 1 AND
7 PM. DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)
(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
141 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 ENE WALNUT GROVE      32.64N 89.33W
07/10/2016                   LEAKE              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE DOWN NEAR THE ROSEBUD COMMUNITY.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
145 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MSZ031-101900-
LOWNDES MS-
145 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 145 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF BENT OAK...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF COLUMBUS...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOWNDES COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3329 8836 3329 8843 3334 8855 3351 8846
      3348 8829
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 294DEG 9KT 3340 8843

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MSZ042-043-101930-
MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
209 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN YAZOO AND WEST
CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 208 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER PHOENIX...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF REDWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN YAZOO
AND WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS: SATARTIA.

LAT...LON 3269 9057 3270 9037 3249 9038 3250 9045
      3256 9045 3254 9047 3254 9048 3252 9050
      3252 9052 3251 9052 3251 9055 3253 9056
      3253 9058 3255 9059 3255 9062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 284DEG 14KT 3259 9052

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
211 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MSZ036-042-043-102000-
HOLMES MS-MADISON MS-YAZOO MS-
211 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN YAZOO...CENTRAL
MADISON AND SOUTH CENTRAL HOLMES COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 210 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MIDWAY...OR 17 MILES EAST OF YAZOO CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  VAUGHAN AROUND 220 PM CDT.
  PICKENS AROUND 225 PM CDT.
  CAMERON AROUND 235 PM CDT.
  CAMDEN AROUND 240 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3291 8992 3289 8996 3288 8996 3288 8984
      3289 8980 3288 8978 3251 8993 3264 9030
      3297 9018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 281DEG 27KT 3289 9010

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
219 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MSZ039-046-102000-
NOXUBEE MS-KEMPER MS-
219 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN KEMPER AND
SOUTHEASTERN NOXUBEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 216 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF ELECTRIC MILLS...OR 18 MILES EAST OF PRESTON...MOVING
EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PAULETTE AROUND 235 PM CDT.
  COOKSVILLE AROUND 250 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE SCOOBA AND SHUQUALAK.

LAT...LON 3276 8837 3277 8861 3303 8862 3307 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 267DEG 14KT 3288 8851

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MSZ073-074-102100-
LAMAR MS-FORREST MS-
308 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FORREST AND EAST
CENTRAL LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 308 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR WEST HATTIESBURG...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HATTIESBURG AND OAK GROVE AROUND 315 PM CDT.
  WEST HATTIESBURG AROUND 330 PM CDT.
  PETAL AND SUNRISE AROUND 400 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3119 8942 3132 8944 3142 8921 3122 8918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 252DEG 5KT 3125 8939

10