Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
316 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...Outflow boundary from overnight MCS in AR/TN has
slowed to a crawl across northeast LA/northcentral MS, but has served
as a good focus for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The GFS
brings this boundary south early this evening before moving it back
north overnight and continues to crank out QPF despite the loss of
heating.

Weak mid level shortwave/cyclonic shear axis looks to become a
fixture over the forecast area through at least mid week. As a
result, better mid level lapse rates will combine with PWs near 2
inches and daytime heating to produce a good scattering of showers
and thunderstorms each day. As such, the increased cloud cover and
rainfall will give the area some reprieve from the oppressive heat
of late. As has been the case today, a limited risk of severe
thunderstorms looks to exist again for Sunday with the better lapse
rates and the 20-25 knots of deep layer shear remaining over the
region. Damaging wind gusts and frequent lightning appear to be the
primary hazards expected. Will include as such in the HWO.

The heat looks to make a return by mid to late week as ridging from
the northwest will give the shear axis a nudge to the east allowing
drier/warmer air to increase in the column over the forecast area.
The reduced convection and cloud cover should allow maximum
temperatures to return to the mid 90s as heat indices push into the
lower 100s.

The models are hinting that the mid level ridge may begin to break
down somewhat moving into the weekend which should yield better
lapse rates and an increase in the diurnal convective activity./26/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail for the most part through
much of the period. The Scattered thunderstorms will continue
through the afternoon and early evening hours, and these may bring
brief cig/visby reductions and strong wind gusts at times./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  92  73  92 /  32  56  31  46
Meridian      73  93  73  92 /  35  53  41  50
Vicksburg     75  92  74  92 /  39  53  36  31
Hattiesburg   76  92  75  91 /  25  61  29  49
Natchez       75  91  75  91 /  29  47  18  35
Greenville    74  91  73  93 /  51  54  22  39
Greenwood     74  89  73  90 /  45  55  18  41

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
224 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>052-055>058-066-101930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JONES-
224 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ053-054-059>065-072>074-101930-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
224 PM CDT SAT JUL 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

EXCESSIVE HEAT
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...SUNDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SUNDAY.

15

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES FOR 3 OR
 MORE DAYS IN A ROW AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 107
 DEGREES.
SIGNIFICANT...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES
 AND/OR AIR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 105 DEGREES.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 110 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 103 DEGREES.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES AND/OR AIR
 TEMPERATURES 100 TO 103 DEGREES.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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