Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

.UPDATE...Lots of convective debris showing up in the visible
imagery this morning over the northwest third of the forecast area in
immediate advance of the mid level trof axis. Meanwhile to the south,
mostly clear skies have allowed mixing to crank up and the beginnings
of some cumulus are being seen. Also observed in the satellite is an
outflow boundary moving out of east central LA. The differential
heating occurring between the cloud cover and clear skies looks to be
most pronounced over the southwest this morning. Believe convective
initiation will occur there by 16Z as the outflow begins to plow
into the developing cumulus field.

A limited threat of locally severe storms will exist again today as
anomalously cool temps aloft combine with low level warmth to
produce decent lapse rates. May see some hail with the stronger
storms if they can develop some tilt. With the orientation of the
winds aloft, storms with primarily eastward moving outflows should
have the best chance of producing damaging wind gusts./26/

&&

.AVIATION...The mixed bag of morning flight restricted categories
has now improved and all areas are VFR. The focus for today will be
timing convection and the associated lower flight categories from
that. Expecting an earlier start than typical with most activity in
the 17-00z time window and will highlight the best times for storms
from site to site as we get closer to TAF issuance. Look for VFR
conditions to exist in the wake of storms and for much of the
evening and night. However, there will be the opportunity for most
sites to see MVFR conditions by 10z and will cover that accordingly.
/CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

UPDATE...

The forecast is generally on track for today, but have made some
minor adjustments to the near term to cut back on the early morning
thunderstorm chances along/south of I-20 and to mention fog over
eastern MS. /EC/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term (Today through Monday night)...The near term will be
headlined by a continuation of improved rain chances with some
slight heat relief.

Latest upper air analysis shows a mid/upper shortwave trough easing
into the region. The approach of this feature was the impetus for
increased precip coverage on Saturday, and with it now in closer
proximity, we can expect to see a trend toward wetter continue.
Though much of the residual convection from Saturday died off
overnight, new development along outflow from a dying complex over
North MS has been festering across the Delta through the early
morning hours. There is a good chance this will continue to further
develop downstream through the morning. In fact, most models suggest
development will occur much earlier in the day today. Lower heights
with the shortwave will result in steeper mid level lapse rates, and
unlike yesterday deep layer shear is forecast to be more impressive
(around 30 kt) through much of the day. This will fuel the potential
for additional strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, which will continue to be highlighted in the
HWO/graphics. Hail will continue to be less likely as freezing
levels remain quite high. Isolated runoff issues from locally heavy
rainfall will also be possible given the ample deep layer moisture
in place.

Monday looks to be quite similar to today, as the shortwave trough
remains nearby. Consequently, we could once again see showers/storms
develop earlier in the day. There could again be some strong storms
around, but given uncertainty with respect to how convection will
evolve (for instance, will early day activity put a damper on
instability) we will hold off on mentioning this concern in the HWO
at this point. The increased prevalence of clouds/precip will likely
shave a few degrees off high temps both today and tomorrow. /DL/

Tuesday through Saturday night...

The hot subtropical ridge will build back over the ArkLaMiss during
the mid to late week as the current trough shifts east and weakens.
Global models still forecast the trough to linger as a weak mid/upper
level shear axis over the central/eastern Gulf states, and this
combined with precipitable water values ~1.75 inches should provide
support for isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity,
particularly over eastern/southern portions of the forecast area.
Forecasted thermodynamic parameters would support a few strong to
severe microbursts.

From Thursday into Friday, more pronounced troughing over the Upper
Midwest and Northeast could mean greater influence from the
westerlies over northern portions of the ArkLaMiss, resulting in
greater potential for organized strong storms given increasing deep
layer shear and steepening mid level lapse rates. But there are also
signs that the mid level cap will keep a lid on deep convective
potential. Otherwise, daytime heat indices and heat stress may creep
back up to more dangerous levels by late week and into the weekend
for most of the region, and this may eventually need a mention in the
HWO. /EC/

AVIATION...Patchy fog and low clouds this morning with result in
categorical reductions at a couple local terminals, but this should
quickly dissipate after sunrise, with VFR conditions prevailing
through most of the day. SHRA/TSRA are expected to be more numerous
today, and these will result in ceiling/visby reductions, but they
should be temporary. A few of the storms could be strong, capable of
producing 30+ kt wind gusts. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  74  91  75 /  50  23  49  20
Meridian      91  73  91  74 /  63  28  54  23
Vicksburg     91  75  91  75 /  42  18  38  17
Hattiesburg   92  74  90  74 /  47  27  51  22
Natchez       90  74  90  74 /  45  19  38  19
Greenville    90  73  91  74 /  33  21  39  18
Greenwood     88  72  89  72 /  34  23  47  22

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

JAN/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
110915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
410 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1138 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MSZ043-049-101715-
MADISON MS-RANKIN MS-
1138 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RANKIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

AT 1138 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PISGAH...OR 9 MILES EAST OF CANTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  FARMHAVEN AROUND 1155 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3262 8974 3259 8978 3249 8976 3246 8999
      3265 8997 3272 8973
TIME...MOT...LOC 1638Z 257DEG 15KT 3256 8988

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1142 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MSZ044-101715-
LEAKE MS-
1142 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN LEAKE COUNTY UNTIL 1215
PM CDT...

AT 1142 AM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CARTHAGE AROUND 1145 AM CDT.
  RENFROE AROUND 1210 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE REDWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 8972 3282 8972 3288 8945 3264 8947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1642Z 257DEG 15KT 3275 8957

CME

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

MSZ043-044-049-050-101815-
LEAKE MS-MADISON MS-RANKIN MS-SCOTT MS-
1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN LEAKE...NORTHEASTERN
RANKIN...NORTHWESTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL
115 PM CDT...

AT 1238 PM CDT...METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAMDEN TO NEAR GOSHEN SPRINGS.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CAMDEN AROUND 1245 PM CDT.
  THOMASTOWN AROUND 110 PM CDT.
  CARTHAGE...LUDLOW AND SINGLETON AROUND 115 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE REDWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8944 3243 8977 3246 9008 3280 8985
      3293 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 259DEG 13KT 3279 8978 3251 8995

CME