Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
637 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Elevated storms quickly developed early this afternoon in an area
of strong 850-700mb moisture transport. Around nearly the same
time surface based storms developed west of our forecast area on
the more traditional dryline. Large scale lift provided by
approaching shortwave is allowing for much more widespread
convection compared to the last couple of days.

With extreme instability, any storm that goes up will have a good
chance of producing very large hail. Surface flow today is
stronger than last couple of days along with deep layer shear
being more robust. Therefore, any surfaced based storm this
afternoon or evening will have a chance to produce a tornado with
a enhanced risk closer to the warm front/outflow, where winds will
be slightly more backed, resulting in strong low level shear.
Through 2pm, tornado threat is being mitigated by storms
interfering with each other. Going to need a storm to be more
isolated to get a longer lived tor this afternoon/evening.

Also ran with a flash flood watch through Fri afternoon with
several rounds of storms expected and grounds already saturated.
Should also see rivers continue to flood along with additional
rivers going into flood.

As the overnight hours progresses the more widespread convection
should push east and northeast on the better 850-700mb moisture.
Storms still look like a good bet for Fri as the upper wave takes
its time lifting across KS. What is left of the dryline looks to
still linger along the SW fringes of the forecast area by Fri
afternoon and may provide a focus. In addition, large scale lift
will be much better than the last few days which may allow storms
to more freely develop in the very unstable airmass. Severe storms
will be possible with any storms that develop Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

By 18z Sat, the upper wave will be lifting over northeast KS
which will push the better convective chances north and east of
the forecast area. Still not out of the question to get some
storms to develop late Sat night across the southern and southwest
portions of the forecast area as the better 850mb moisture starts
to roll back to the northeast. Confidence in rain chances starting
Sun is very low as we get broad sw flow aloft. While both GFS and
ECMWF agree on a northern stream shortwave tracking across the
northern Plains, they disagree on the timing, with the ECMWF
faster compared to the GFS which leads to low confidence. There is
still some suggestion that a weak impulse will track across
OK/southern KS Mon into Mon evening which may result in some
elevated rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Strong-severe storm potential this evening,
and low stratus again late tonight into Friday morning.

Most numerous thunderstorm activity through 03z-05z will be mainly
northwest of the Kansas Turnpike, where best low-level moisture
convergence is indicated. Have tempo TSRA mentioned at RSL, SLN,
and HUT Terminals, with VCTS at ICT and CNU. Large hail and very
heavy rain will be the main threats. A very moist south-
southeasterly boundary layer flow should lead to widespread
MVFR/IFR stratus again late tonight into Thursday morning. The
ceilings should gradually lift and scatter out around midday
Thursday for most of the area. Additional scattered thunderstorms
are possible across eastern Kansas again Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  80  61  81 /  50  40  30  10
Hutchinson      65  80  59  81 /  70  40  30  10
Newton          66  79  61  80 /  70  50  40  10
ElDorado        67  78  62  80 /  50  50  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   66  80  63  82 /  40  40  30  10
Russell         62  81  57  79 /  60  40  30  10
Great Bend      62  81  57  79 /  60  40  30  10
Salina          65  80  58  80 /  70  50  40  20
McPherson       65  80  59  80 /  70  50  40  10
Coffeyville     67  77  65  81 /  40  50  40  10
Chanute         68  76  65  81 /  50  50  50  30
Iola            67  76  64  80 /  50  60  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    67  77  65  81 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-271800-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
244 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AREAS AT GREATEST RISK ARE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE...WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HAIL MAY BE AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS ALONG
WITH WINDS AROUND 65 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINS THAT MAY CAUSE
FURTHER FLOODING.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL-SIZED
AND 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS. THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WOULD BE AREA WIDE FROM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...PLEASE CHECK LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
600 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             MCPHERSON               38.37N 97.66W
05/26/2016  E0.88 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS DIME TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL ON
            THE NORTH SIDE OF MCPHERSON.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             KINGMAN                 37.65N 98.11W
05/26/2016  E0.75 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

VJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ051-068-262330-
HARVEY KS-MCPHERSON KS-
607 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 606 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BURRTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30
  MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HESSTON...HALSTEAD...MOUNDRIDGE AND BURRTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 9770 3805 9770 3827 9761 3822 9737
      3794 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 190DEG 28KT 3803 9762

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ049-051-052-262345-
SALINE KS-MCPHERSON KS-MARION KS-
617 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF ASSARIA TO 7 MILES WEST OF MOUNDRIDGE...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SALINA...MCPHERSON...LINDSBORG...MOUNDRIDGE...INMAN...GALVA...
  CANTON...GOESSEL...ASSARIA...GYPSUM...LEHIGH...MCPHERSON AIRPORT...
  BRIDGEPORT AND ROXBURY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3876 9737 3861 9737 3861 9724 3817 9734
      3817 9770 3818 9783 3880 9766
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 224DEG 33KT 3858 9753 3818 9765

RITZMAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ050-067-270015-
RENO KS-RICE KS-
636 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN RICE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER PARTRIDGE...OR 11 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH HUTCHINSON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HUTCHINSON...SOUTH HUTCHINSON...STERLING...NICKERSON...ARLINGTON...
  PARTRIDGE...ABBYVILLE AND WILLOWBROOK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 9828 3831 9793 3787 9794 3785 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 190DEG 28KT 3796 9813

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
639 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ052-053-270015-
CHASE KS-MARION KS-
639 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN CHASE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF LINCOLNVILLE...OR 12
  MILES NORTHEAST OF MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LINCOLNVILLE AND HYMER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3852 9667 3829 9673 3840 9697
      3861 9695 3861 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 206DEG 20KT 3847 9684

JAKUB