Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1236 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Forecast Headline:
Severe thunderstorm potential remains high from late this afternoon
thru tonight with very large hail and tornadoes the greatest
threats.

This Afternoon & Tonight:
During the night a deep upper-deck trof was positioned over AZ. The
upper trof is still expected to push slowly E across the Srn
Rockies today & is still expected to experience cyclogenesis as it
begins to lift very slowly NE from Nrn NM late tonight, with the
upper cyclone reaching the CO/KS border early Fri Morning. As this
character lifts NE sfc cyclongenesis will increase considerably as
the sfc low ventures from NE NM to the TX/OK Panhandles/SE CO/SW KS
region this afternoon. The ultra-high octane moisture streaming N
will team with the greatly increasing deep-layer shear, both speed
& directional, to trigger severe thunderstorms across most of KICT
Country late this afternoon & this evening. Although it won't be
quite as warm/hot yesterday, the extremely rich moisture would be
more than sufficient to cause extreme destablization. CAPES will
experience an adrenaline rush with SBCAPES & MLCAPES projected to
reach 4,000-5,500 J/KG & primarily 3,500-4,000 J/KG, respectively &
deep-layer bulk shear increasing to 40-60 KTS & an E-W sfc boundary
forming near I-70, there will be supercells that'll be capable of
very large hail that now is likely to reach around baseball-sized
& tornadoes. Areas at greatest risk for such large hail & tornadoes
would be from Southern Nebraska to nearly all of Central KS. SPC
continues to assign "Enhanced Risk" to these areas but wouldn't be
surprised to see them up the ante to " MODERATE Risk". Stay tuned.

*Corrected risk in last line.

This Weekend:
With the overall pattern making very slow ewd progress, more
thunderstorms will fire across the region. Although the projected
instability & deep-layer shear won't be as impressive, plus the
absence of a lower-deck focusing mechanism, still expect a few
strong-severe thunderstorms to develop Fri Afternoon & Evening
with the convection weakening Fri Night. Scattered thunderstorms
will continue thru the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The GFS & ECMWF continue to agree quite well with overall pattern
 with both depicting a weak zonal regime Sunday & Sunday Night. A
2nd upper-deck trof is forecast to move E & like it's predecessor
it'll move slowly E & strengthen as it digs across Srn CA. A lead
shortwave will eject NE, likely reaching Wrn OK & Wrn KS Sun
Afternoon. As such, there'll be several rounds of thunderstorms
from Sun Afternoon thru next Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Major concern is convective potential and confidence in timing is
low. Ongoing elevated showers/thunderstorms will track close to
KGBD/KHUT/KICT and possibly KSLN over the first couple of hours
of forecast. Stronger storms are likely mid-late afternoon, but
exact location and timing is suspect. This seems most likely
at KHUT/KGBD, but is possible at all sites except KCNU. IFR
conditions are likely with storms with winds of 35g45kt likely.
Given soupy airmass will remain in place, anticipate mvfr/ifr
condition to return later tonight. -howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  67  81  63 /  50  60  50  40
Hutchinson      85  65  82  60 /  60  60  50  40
Newton          84  65  80  62 /  60  60  50  40
ElDorado        84  66  80  64 /  60  60  50  50
Winfield-KWLD   85  67  81  64 /  50  60  50  40
Russell         85  62  82  57 /  50  50  40  40
Great Bend      86  62  83  57 /  50  50  40  30
Salina          85  65  81  61 /  60  70  50  60
McPherson       85  65  81  60 /  60  60  50  40
Coffeyville     84  68  81  66 /  50  50  60  50
Chanute         84  67  79  65 /  50  60  60  60
Iola            84  66  79  65 /  50  60  60  60
Parsons-KPPF    84  68  80  65 /  50  60  60  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1257 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-271800-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1257 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AREAS AT GREATEST RISK ARE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE...WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HAIL MAY BE AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS ALONG
WITH WINDS AROUND 65 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINS THAT MAY CAUSE
FURTHER FLOODING.

FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR BOTH RIVER AND AREAL FLOODING.
CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL-SIZED
AND 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS. THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WOULD BE AREA WIDE FROM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG THE NEOSHO RIVER IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...PLEASE CHECK LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
121 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             9 SSW HUTCHINSON        37.94N 97.98W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
125 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ083-092-093-261900-
SEDGWICK KS-SUMNER KS-COWLEY KS-
125 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  EASTERN SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CDT

* AT 123 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WELLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 45 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DERBY...HAYSVILLE...WELLINGTON...MULVANE...BELLE PLAINE...OXFORD...
  UDALL...MAYFIELD...RIVERDALE...WELLINGTON AIRPORT AND PERTH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 9764 3759 9736 3733 9693 3709 9732
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 227DEG 38KT 3725 9734

RITZMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
131 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SW HUTCHINSON        37.96N 98.04W
05/26/2016  E50 MPH          RENO               KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN AND DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
135 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 PM     HAIL             HUTCHINSON              38.07N 97.91W
05/26/2016  E0.88 INCH       RENO               KS   PUBLIC

&&

SMF

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
139 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ051-052-068-261915-
HARVEY KS-MCPHERSON KS-MARION KS-
139 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  CENTRAL MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT

* AT 137 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GOESSEL...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF HESSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HESSTON...HILLSBORO...MARION...NORTH NEWTON...PEABODY...GOESSEL...
  WALTON...LEHIGH...DURHAM...MARION LAKE AND NEWTON AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3839 9683 3809 9711 3809 9715 3804 9715
      3802 9717 3811 9748 3857 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 203DEG 33KT 3821 9729

RITZMAN