Areal Flood Warning 36, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
221 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Elevated storms quickly developed early this afternoon in an area
of strong 850-700mb moisture transport. Around nearly the same
time surface based storms developed west of our forecast area on
the more traditional dryline. Large scale lift provided by
approaching shortwave is allowing for much more widespread
convection compared to the last couple of days.

With extreme instability, any storm that goes up will have a good
chance of producing very large hail. Surface flow today is
stronger than last couple of days along with deep layer shear
being more robust. Therefore, any surfaced based storm this
afternoon or evening will have a chance to produce a tornado with
a enhanced risk closer to the warm front/outflow, where winds will
be slightly more backed, resulting in strong low level shear.
Through 2pm, tornado threat is being mitigated by storms
interfering with each other. Going to need a storm to be more
isolated to get a longer lived tor this afternoon/evening.

Also ran with a flash flood watch through Fri afternoon with
several rounds of storms expected and grounds already saturated.
Should also see rivers continue to flood along with additional
rivers going into flood.

As the overnight hours progresses the more widespread convection
should push east and northeast on the better 850-700mb moisture.
Storms still look like a good bet for Fri as the upper wave takes
its time lifting across KS. What is left of the dryline looks to
still linger along the SW fringes of the forecast area by Fri
afternoon and may provide a focus. In addition, large scale lift
will be much better than the last few days which may allow storms
to more freely develop in the very unstable airmass. Severe storms
will be possible with any storms that develop Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

By 18z Sat, the upper wave will be lifting over northeast KS
which will push the better convective chances north and east of
the forecast area. Still not out of the question to get some
storms to develop late Sat night across the southern and southwest
portions of the forecast area as the better 850mb moisture starts
to roll back to the northeast. Confidence in rain chances starting
Sun is very low as we get broad sw flow aloft. While both GFS and
ECMWF agree on a northern stream shortwave tracking across the
northern Plains, they disagree on the timing, with the ECMWF
faster compared to the GFS which leads to low confidence. There is
still some suggestion that a weak impulse will track across
OK/southern KS Mon into Mon evening which may result in some
elevated rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convective potential is the the main concern today. Anticipate
improving conditions to VFR at all sites early this morning through
early this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop just to
the west of the KHUT/KGBD/KRSL Taf locations late this afternoon/
early this evening near a dryline/outflow boundary. Think some of
the convection could be strong/severe near KHUT and KGBD so added a
tempo group for some gusty winds and moderate TSRA. Could also see
some convection reach KICT so will include VCTS for this site as
well.

Expect the dryline convection to evolve into a forward propagating
complex storms tonight, so will keep VCTS going overnight.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  66  80  61 /  50  40  40  30
Hutchinson      85  65  80  59 /  60  50  40  30
Newton          84  66  79  61 /  60  60  50  40
ElDorado        84  67  78  62 /  60  50  50  40
Winfield-KWLD   85  66  80  63 /  50  30  40  30
Russell         85  62  81  57 /  50  70  40  30
Great Bend      86  62  81  57 /  50  60  40  30
Salina          85  65  80  58 /  60  70  50  40
McPherson       85  65  80  59 /  60  60  50  40
Coffeyville     84  67  77  65 /  50  40  50  40
Chanute         84  68  76  65 /  50  50  50  50
Iola            84  67  76  64 /  50  50  60  50
Parsons-KPPF    84  67  77  65 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-271800-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
244 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. AREAS AT GREATEST RISK ARE ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE...WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...HAIL MAY BE AS LARGE AS GOLFBALLS ALONG
WITH WINDS AROUND 65 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINS THAT MAY CAUSE
FURTHER FLOODING.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL-SIZED
AND 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS. THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WOULD BE AREA WIDE FROM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...PLEASE CHECK LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
254 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             SEDGWICK                37.92N 97.43W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       HARVEY             KS   PUBLIC

&&

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ051-052-068-083-262030-
SEDGWICK KS-HARVEY KS-MCPHERSON KS-MARION KS-
255 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 254 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SEDGWICK...MOVING NORTH AT 25
  MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEWTON...PARK CITY...VALLEY CENTER...HESSTON...HALSTEAD...
  NORTH NEWTON...SEDGWICK...WALTON AND NEWTON AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 9754 3825 9745 3812 9703 3809 9707
      3809 9715 3801 9715 3784 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 199DEG 22KT 3795 9741

RITZMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             5 ENE NEWTON            38.07N 97.26W
05/26/2016  E1.00 INCH       HARVEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL AIRPORT         38.87N 98.82W
05/26/2016  M63 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

&&

SMF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ051-068-262130-
HARVEY KS-MCPHERSON KS-
342 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 340 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
  DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
  NEAR BURRTON...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HESSTON...MOUNDRIDGE AND BURRTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9737 3801 9759 3802 9770 3817 9770
      3818 9772 3828 9772 3832 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 189DEG 20KT 3809 9766

HOWERTON