Areal Flood Warning 45, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
656 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

A shortwave trough continues to remain parked over the Rockies with
diffluent H5 flow downstream across the Central Plains states. Moist
southerly flow will persist across the area again today while the
surface low remains situated across Southwest Kansas. A more diffuse
dryline is progged to mix slowly eastward by late afternoon
providing a focus for severe storms once again. The moist sector may
be contaminated by ongoing convection and not nearly as unstable as
the previous day with the steepest mid-lvl lapse rates remaining
across Central/South Central KS. Cinh is also progged to diminish
early in the period resulting in lingering/early onset of new
convection by around 18z or shortly thereafter. H5 flow is progged
to back as the mid/upper trough approaches and when the PV anomaly
rotates toward the area late in the period...supporting a more rapid
transition to linear mode during the afternoon/early evening hours
over South Central KS. The better H85 moisture transport overnight
is progged to shift rapidly eastward focusing on far southeast KS
into MO while increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence
overspreads the region from west to east as we move through the
overnight hours and into Saturday. Since much of the area has
saturated soils with ongoing flooding concerns the flash flood
watch will be extended through tonight for much of Central & South
Central KS. Most locations are expected to remain dry on Saturday
as the mid/upper trough lifts slowly north and east toward the
Upper Mississippi Valley area. Under a mix of sun and
clouds...highs on Saturday are expected to remain seasonable with
readings in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Southerly flow will return on Sunday allowing low level moisture to
surge back north across the area. This will result in a buoyant
airmass and we may see a few storms develop along a dryline across
the High Plains and drift eastward through the evening hours.
Maintained low pops across much of the area with the highest
confidence across Central KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Maintained low pops through the middle of the week as another
slow moving mid/upper trough is progged to translate eastward
across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains states.
The Ecmwf continues to be more progressive with the trough which
would result in a faster fropa and a drier scenario when compared
to the GFS. Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated through
the period with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Areas of MVFR CIGS can be expected this morning with very
brief period of IFR in central Kansas. Otherwise, daytime
heating and the approach of low pressure aloft will result
in scattered to numerous showers and storms from midday
into the evening across much of the area again. For now
have inserted VCTS and will amend as needed as convection
become more imminent.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    80  58  82  61 /  60  50  10  10
Hutchinson      80  56  81  59 /  60  50  10  10
Newton          78  57  80  59 /  60  50  10  10
ElDorado        77  59  81  61 /  60  60  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   80  60  83  63 /  60  50  10  10
Russell         79  55  79  56 /  60  50  10  10
Great Bend      80  56  79  58 /  60  50  10  10
Salina          79  56  80  58 /  50  50  20  10
McPherson       79  55  80  58 /  60  50  10  10
Coffeyville     77  64  82  63 /  60  60  20  10
Chanute         76  63  81  62 /  60  60  30  10
Iola            76  62  81  62 /  60  60  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    77  63  82  63 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083.

&&

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
422 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
422 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-135. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND FLOODING ALSO
POSSIBLE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
623 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 AM     FLOOD            MARION                  38.35N 97.02W
05/27/2016                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
639 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 AM     FLOOD            LITTLE RIVER            38.40N 98.01W
05/27/2016                   RICE               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS IMPACTED BY HIGH WATER.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
647 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 AM     FLOOD            BARNARD                 39.19N 98.04W
05/27/2016                   LINCOLN            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FLOOD WATERS FROM SALT CREEK AT BARNARD HAS COVERED NORTH
            250TH ROAD NEAR THE BRIDGE.

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 AM     FLOOD            BARNARD                 39.19N 98.04W
05/27/2016                   LINCOLN            KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            FLOOD WATERS FROM THE SALT CREEK HAS FLOODED NORTH 270TH
            ROAD 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARNARD. ROAD IS CLOSED.

&&

JAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
737 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     FLOOD            12 S MCPHERSON          38.20N 97.66W
05/27/2016                   MCPHERSON          KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF WATER OVER THE ROAD IN SOUTHERN PART
            OF THE COUNTY.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
933 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     FLOOD            GYPSUM                  38.71N 97.43W
05/27/2016                   SALINE             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            KANSAS HIGHWAY 4 IS CLOSED NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH
            SOUTH GYPSUM VALLEY ROAD.

&&

SGS