Areal Flood Warning 40, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1131 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Elevated storms quickly developed early this afternoon in an area
of strong 850-700mb moisture transport. Around nearly the same
time surface based storms developed west of our forecast area on
the more traditional dryline. Large scale lift provided by
approaching shortwave is allowing for much more widespread
convection compared to the last couple of days.

With extreme instability, any storm that goes up will have a good
chance of producing very large hail. Surface flow today is
stronger than last couple of days along with deep layer shear
being more robust. Therefore, any surfaced based storm this
afternoon or evening will have a chance to produce a tornado with
a enhanced risk closer to the warm front/outflow, where winds will
be slightly more backed, resulting in strong low level shear.
Through 2pm, tornado threat is being mitigated by storms
interfering with each other. Going to need a storm to be more
isolated to get a longer lived tor this afternoon/evening.

Also ran with a flash flood watch through Fri afternoon with
several rounds of storms expected and grounds already saturated.
Should also see rivers continue to flood along with additional
rivers going into flood.

As the overnight hours progresses the more widespread convection
should push east and northeast on the better 850-700mb moisture.
Storms still look like a good bet for Fri as the upper wave takes
its time lifting across KS. What is left of the dryline looks to
still linger along the SW fringes of the forecast area by Fri
afternoon and may provide a focus. In addition, large scale lift
will be much better than the last few days which may allow storms
to more freely develop in the very unstable airmass. Severe storms
will be possible with any storms that develop Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

By 18z Sat, the upper wave will be lifting over northeast KS
which will push the better convective chances north and east of
the forecast area. Still not out of the question to get some
storms to develop late Sat night across the southern and southwest
portions of the forecast area as the better 850mb moisture starts
to roll back to the northeast. Confidence in rain chances starting
Sun is very low as we get broad sw flow aloft. While both GFS and
ECMWF agree on a northern stream shortwave tracking across the
northern Plains, they disagree on the timing, with the ECMWF
faster compared to the GFS which leads to low confidence. There is
still some suggestion that a weak impulse will track across
OK/southern KS Mon into Mon evening which may result in some
elevated rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Stratus potential late tonight/early
Friday, and thunderstorms tonight and Friday afternoon/night.

Quasi-linear thunderstorm complex extending from northeast KS
through south-central KS...moving eastward at 30-35 mph as of
0425Z. This line should reach the CNU terminal between 0700Z-
0830Z given present movement. Will carry TEMPO +TSRA with strong
wind gusts at CNU for this line. Post-QLCS lightning strikes and
gusty outflow winds will continue for about an hour or two behind
this line, affecting the ICT and SLN terminals.

Otherwise, a very moist east-southeasterly boundary layer flow
aided by recent widespread heavy rainfall, should lead to low
stratus development across most of the area Friday morning. The
stratus should gradually lift and scatter out around midday. More
chances for thunderstorms will occur later Friday
afternoon/evening, as an upper trough lifts slowly out over Kansas
from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  80  61  81 / 100  40  30  10
Hutchinson      65  80  59  81 / 100  40  30  10
Newton          63  79  61  80 / 100  50  40  10
ElDorado        67  78  62  80 /  80  50  40  10
Winfield-KWLD   66  80  63  82 /  60  40  30  10
Russell         59  81  57  79 /  60  40  30  10
Great Bend      57  81  57  79 /  70  40  30  10
Salina          60  80  58  80 / 100  50  40  20
McPherson       62  80  59  80 / 100  50  40  10
Coffeyville     67  77  65  81 /  40  50  40  10
Chanute         68  76  65  81 /  50  50  50  30
Iola            67  76  64  80 /  60  60  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    67  77  65  81 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1006 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280315-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1006 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO THE FLINT HILLS OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL OCCURRENCES EARLY OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL RATES AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FROM ANY STORMS TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL-SIZED
AND 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THAT MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS. THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WOULD BE AREA WIDE FROM SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...PLEASE CHECK LATER
OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANY
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER...FLOODING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MEASUREMENTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1056 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

KSZ067-068-083-270430-
SEDGWICK KS-HARVEY KS-RENO KS-
1056 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1053 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
  MOUNDRIDGE TO 7 MILES EAST OF PRETTY PRAIRIE...AND MOVING EAST AT
  45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WICHITA...NEWTON...VALLEY CENTER...HESSTON...MAIZE...HALSTEAD...
  NORTH NEWTON...SEDGWICK...COLWICH...HAVEN...BURRTON...MOUNT HOPE...
  ANDALE...BENTLEY...WALTON...NEWTON AIRPORT AND CHENEY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3774 9793 3817 9771 3817 9718 3773 9743
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 279DEG 38KT 3816 9759 3777 9789

JAKUB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1220 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ069-070-093-094-098-270615-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-GREENWOOD KS-BUTLER KS-COWLEY KS-
1220 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  WESTERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT

* AT 1217 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR EL
  DORADO TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLASS TO NEAR ARKANSAS CITY...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EL DORADO...ARKANSAS CITY...WINFIELD...ANDOVER...AUGUSTA...
  ROSE HILL...DOUGLASS...TOWANDA...BENTON...UDALL...LEON...
  CEDAR VALE...BURDEN...DEXTER...GRENOLA...ATLANTA...LATHAM...
  ROSALIA...ROCK AND CAMBRIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9712 3781 9713 3793 9645 3750 9637
      3700 9641 3700 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 262DEG 25KT 3780 9692 3746 9692 3700 9702

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     FLOOD            MCPHERSON               38.37N 97.66W
05/27/2016                   MCPHERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS WATER OVER NORTHVIEW ROAD AS WELL
            4 ROADS IN WINDOM AND OTHERS IN THE COUNTY.

&&

VJP