Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
441 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled across the area through
the weekend, enhancing rain and thunderstorm chances. Another weak
front will approach the region on Tuesday, keeping the area in an
active summertime pattern of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 435 PM: A long line of thunderstorms has developed west of
I-77 back along I-85. These storms will likely yield a few areas of
Flash Flooding to Severe Thunderstorms into the early evening. I
will update the forecast to increase PoPs and sky. Temps have been
populated with observations.

As of 200 PM...Little change from this morning's thinking with
respect to the eventual cvrg of thunderstorms into the evening
hours.  The the biggest threat from storms today remains locally
heavy rainfall, isolated wet microbursts and to a lesser extent
hail, maybe up to the size of pennies. Will go with a more definite
lowering of shower chances as the evening wears on and heading into
the overnight hours with weak shear axis slipping east of the cwfa,
and mid-lvl flow assuming a wnw direction.  Blyr moisture is progged
to remain high, so low clouds and locally dense fog remain probable,
especially where is has rained today.  For Sunday, it is shaping up
to be a typically warm and humid mid-July day, maybe max temperatures
a degree or two higher than today's readings. Would expect more in
the way of climo diurnal tstm cvrg with the upper pattern a tad less
favorable for storm development featuring weak upper level
anticyclone development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
- KGSP 121756
WRKSHT

As of 250 PM Saturday...Mid level ridging will nose into the area
Sunday night through Monday night. This will lead to a relative lull
in convection with the focus during this period being Monday
afternon and evening mainly in the mountains. The ridge will pull
back west on Tuesday allowing a trof to develop along the east
coast. This pattern shift will lead to more widespread storms
Tuesday afternoon and evening across the area. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 PM Saturday...The medium range fcst picks up at 00Z on Wednesday
with very steep upper ridging over the central CONUS and a positively
tilted upper trof axis over New England. The upper trof is slow to
move offshore, but eventually does by the start of the weekend. The
ridge begins to spread farther east on Wednesday and Thursday, but
makes little progress and then begins to flatten on Friday. By the
end of the period, another upper trof attempts to dig down over
Ontario and Quebec, pushing the center of the ridge farther west.
At the sfc, a weak cold front is expected to lay across the fcst
area by the start of the period with drier, reinforcing high pressure
behind it. Over the next couple of days, model guidance has the
high sliding SE and eventually becoming absorbed into the prevailing
Bermuda High. This will put the CWFA back into a more typical
southerly, moist flow regime by the start of the weekend. The models
also bring another cold front to our doorstep by the very end of the
period late Sat. As for the sensible fcst, most of the period should
be drier overall with less than climo POPs for mid/late July with better
chances for widespread convection on Sat. Temps should start out around
climatology and increase above it for Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT...With the NC piedmont being the last region to loose their
low clouds today, it lags behind in the diurnal destabilization
process early this afternoon.  However, with favorable moisture
profiles regionwide, and the convection allowing model consensus
translating tstms into the region later this afternoon, feel that
there is a better than even money threat for thunder to affect the
terminal at some point during the 5 hour period after 20z. With
diurnal lessening of cvrg this evening, feel that additional storm
chances are not greater than 30 percent after 03z to include a
prob30 mention.  Unless considerable rain does fall atop the
terminal later today (which typically increases the chances for IFR
during the warm season), similar blyr moisture levels and flow are
progged to develop early Sunday morning, so a period of MVFR
conditions looks to be probable.

Elsewhere...Based on the expected cvrg of tstms this afternoon and
evening a tempo tsra will be carrier at all terminals into about
early evening. Widespread flight restrictions should develop
overnight with localized LIFR conditions, just like this morning.

Outlook...Fairly typical midsummer weather with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms expected each day through at least the middle of
next week. A frontal boundary will sag south into the region by
early tomorrow and stall out, keeping daily coverage enhanced. Each
day, AM fog and low stratus will be possible in the mountain river
valleys and also in locations that receive heavy rainfall in the
preceding PM.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%
KAVL       High  90%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-171815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
211 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ANY HAIL PRODUCED MAY BE UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HICKORY                 35.74N 81.33W
07/16/2016                   CATAWBA            NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 127 AND 2ND AVENUE.

&&

SWILKINS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
504 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ESE SPARTANBURG       34.93N 81.88W
07/16/2016                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCHP REPORTED A TREE DOWN AT S PINE ST AND E LANFORD ST

&&

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPARTANBURG             34.94N 81.93W
07/16/2016                   SPARTANBURG        SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON CRESCENT ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

SWILKINS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
529 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NCZ071-072-162200-
CABARRUS NC-MECKLENBURG NC-
529 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND
CABARRUS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 529 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES WEST OF DOWNTOWN CONCORD...OR NEAR WEST CONCORD...MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KANNAPOLIS...CONCORD...MT PLEASANT...CHARLOTTE MOTOR SPEEDWAY...CODDLE
CREEK RESERVOIR...HARRISBURG...NORTHEAST CHARLOTTE AND DAVIDSON.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 8040 3527 8045 3536 8080 3549 8080
      3551 8058 3550 8039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 272DEG 19KT 3541 8072

LANE