Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
253 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled across the area through
the weekend, enhancing rain and thunderstorm chances. Another weak
front will approach the region on Tuesday, keeping the area in an
active summertime pattern of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM...Little change from this morning's thinking with
respect to the eventual cvrg of thunderstorms into the evening
hours. The the biggest threat from storms today remains locally
heavy rainfall, isolated wet microbursts and to a lesser extent
hail, maybe up to the size of pennies. Will go with a more
definite lowering of shower chances as the evening wears on and
heading into the overnight hours with weak shear axis slipping
east of the cwfa, and mid-lvl flow assuming a wnw direction. Blyr
moisture is progged to remain high, so low clouds and locally
dense fog remain probable, especially where is has rained today.
For Sunday, it is shaping up to be a typically warm and humid mid-
July day, maybe max temperatures a degree or two higher than
today's readings. Would expect more in the way of climo diurnal
tstm cvrg with the upper pattern a tad less favorable for storm
development featuring weak upper level anticyclone development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...Mid level ridging will nose into the area
Sunday night through Monday night. This will lead to a relative
lull in convection with the focus during this period being Monday
afternon and evening mainly in the mountains. The ridge will pull
back west on Tuesday allowing a trof to develop along the east
coast. This pattern shift will lead to more widespread storms
Tuesday afternoon and evening across the area. Temperatures will
remain a few degrees above normal through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 250 PM Saturday...The medium range fcst picks up at 00Z on
Wednesday with very steep upper ridging over the central CONUS and
a positively tilted upper trof axis over New England. The upper
trof is slow to move offshore, but eventually does by the start of
the weekend. The ridge begins to spread farther east on Wednesday
and Thursday, but makes little progress and then begins to flatten
on Friday. By the end of the period, another upper trof attempts
to dig down over Ontario and Quebec, pushing the center of the
ridge farther west. At the sfc, a weak cold front is expected to
lay across the fcst area by the start of the period with drier,
reinforcing high pressure behind it. Over the next couple of days,
model guidance has the high sliding SE and eventually becoming
absorbed into the prevailing Bermuda High. This will put the CWFA
back into a more typical southerly, moist flow regime by the start
of the weekend. The models also bring another cold front to our
doorstep by the very end of the period late Sat. As for the
sensible fcst, most of the period should be drier overall with
less than climo POPs for mid/late July with better chances for
widespread convection on Sat. Temps should start out around
climatology and increase above it for Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT...With the NC piedmont being the last region to loose their
low clouds today, it lags behind in the diurnal destabilization
process early this afternoon.  However, with favorable moisture
profiles regionwide, and the convection allowing model consensus
translating tstms into the region later this afternoon, feel that
there is a better than even money threat for thunder to affect the
terminal at some point during the 5 hour period after 20z. With
diurnal lessening of cvrg this evening, feel that additional storm
chances are not greater than 30 percent after 03z to include a
prob30 mention.  Unless considerable rain does fall atop the
terminal later today (which typically increases the chances for IFR
during the warm season), similar blyr moisture levels and flow are
progged to develop early Sunday morning, so a period of MVFR
conditions looks to be probable.

Elsewhere...Based on the expected cvrg of tstms this afternoon and
evening a tempo tsra will be carrier at all terminals into about
early evening. Widespread flight restrictions should develop
overnight with localized LIFR conditions, just like this morning.

Outlook...Fairly typical midsummer weather with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms expected each day through at least the middle of
next week. A frontal boundary will sag south into the region by
early tomorrow and stall out, keeping daily coverage enhanced. Each
day, AM fog and low stratus will be possible in the mountain river
valleys and also in locations that receive heavy rainfall in the
preceding PM.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  99%     High 100%     High  95%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High 100%
KAVL       High  92%     High  95%     High  94%     High  93%
KHKY       High  92%     High 100%     High  96%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High  96%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-171815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
211 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ANY HAIL PRODUCED MAY BE UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

SCZ012-162030-
LAURENS SC-
342 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES WEST OF LAURENS...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF GRAY COURT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAURENS...GRAY COURT AND HICKORY TAVERN.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3448 8217 3455 8221 3468 8207 3449 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 231DEG 9KT 3453 8213

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ017-162030-
HABERSHAM GA-
348 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HABERSHAM COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM EDT...

AT 348 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES NORTH OF CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TALLULAH FALLS...TURNERVILLE AND HOLLYWOOD.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3471 8359 3473 8349 3473 8346 3474 8342
      3473 8342 3473 8338 3460 8340 3464 8359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 272DEG 9KT 3467 8351

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HICKORY                 35.74N 81.33W
07/16/2016                   CATAWBA            NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN HICKORY, NC.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

SCZ008-162015-
CHEROKEE SC-
358 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 358 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF GAFFNEY...OR NEAR CHESNEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COWPENS NATIONAL BATTLEFIELD.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

&&

LAT...LON 3518 8174 3512 8184 3513 8184 3517 8187
      3518 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 245DEG 19KT 3516 8184

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             HICKORY                 35.74N 81.33W
07/16/2016  E0.88 INCH       CATAWBA            NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

SCZ007-162015-
SPARTANBURG SC-
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL SPARTANBURG COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

AT 359 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES EAST OF SPARTANBURG...OR NEAR CEDAR SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SPARTANBURG...PACOLET...PACOLET MILLS...CEDAR SPRINGS AND CROFT STATE
PARK.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3489 8192 3497 8193 3500 8178 3493 8175
      3493 8173 3490 8172 3487 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 267DEG 16KT 3493 8185

LANE