Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

063 
WWUS52 KGSP 161824
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
224 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NCC111-161845-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-160716T1845Z/
MCDOWELL NC-
224 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY...

AT 223 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MARION...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DYSARTSVILLE...GLENWOOD...SUGAR HILL...FERO...PLEASANT GARDENS AND
MARION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN IN THE WARNED
AREA. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING. TURN OFF
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A
BATH OR SHOWER.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1...800... 2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK
PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD
DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 8186 3554 8187 3553 8198 3555 8200
      3554 8203 3554 8207 3553 8211 3558 8211
      3568 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 279DEG 16KT 3559 8196 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SW

582 
WWUS52 KGSP 161844
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NCC111-161854-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-160716T1845Z/
MCDOWELL NC-
244 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 245 PM EDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3565 8186 3554 8187 3553 8198 3555 8200
      3554 8203 3554 8207 3553 8211 3558 8211
      3568 8208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 279DEG 16KT 3559 8196 

$$

LANE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
120 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will remain stalled across the area through the
weekend, enhancing rain and thunderstorm chances. Another weak front
will approach the region by the middle of next week, keeping the
area in an active summertime pattern of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1000 AM...Regional 88D loops detected early morning showers
limited to the far western and northern portions of the cwfa.
Progressive destabilization will allow for the expansion of deep
convective cvrg this afternoon and lingering into the evening
hours.  Based on the convection allowing model consensus, cvrg
should wind up being numerous over the let's say, the 9 or 10 hour
period starting around Noon.  12z area sndgs are moist featuring
above climo PWAT values which should give rise to the biggest threat
from storms today to be locally heavy rainfall with isolated wet
microbursts possible as well.  By tonight, with the axis of the
trough beginning to push east of the area, a little bit of drying in
the mid-levels is expected. So perhaps, convection will wane a
little quicker this evening. Still expect at least a slight chance
of showers and storms through the overnight. Cloud cover and moist
air mass will support min temps about a category above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM EDT Saturday: A low-amplitude but wide upper trough
will be in place with its axis down the Eastern Seaboard at the
start of the short term, pushing the front to our south and east and
leaving us in more of a typical diurnal summertime convection
pattern. The front will become more diffuse as it washes out and
likely becomes more of just a pressure trough than anything.
Meanwhile the upper ridge over the center of the country will
continue to build, with southerly flow at the surface around the
Bermuda high. With the weak northwest flow aloft, operational
guidance is already hinting at a series of disturbances heading down
the northwest flow, though guidance indicates that conditions
wouldn't be supportive of any of the resulting MCSs to cross the
mountains.

The upper ridge will continue to build on Monday, but with plentiful
low-level moisture, high PWs, and still the remnants of the weak
surface trough, should still see another round of diurnal
convection. Monday night into early Tuesday, a shortwave will dive
down the northwest flow, bringing an increase in "ring of fire"
convection around the upper ridge, and an enhancement of the surface
trough across the area. As it stands right now, looks like
convection should linger across the area Monday night. Temperatures
will be highly dependent on overall cloud cover and where storms end
up, but should be pretty close to normal, perhaps a degree or so
above.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM Saturday: As the aforementioned front pushes down
across the area on Tuesday, looks like our best non-diurnal
convection chances will come with it. Some indications that a
convective complex might develop across the Midwest and work its way
down the northwest flow and surface front Tuesday evening. Even the
GFS has some pretty robust sbCAPE values between 2000-2500 J/kg by
late in the day. Even without an MCS however the general weakness
aloft combined with decent synoptic lift and surface heating support
likely pops across the mountains.

The front looks to stall just to our south on Wednesday as the
wavetrain amplitude increases, pushing the center of the upper high
west as the New England/southeast Canadian upper low strengthens
somewhat. No remarkable change in temperatures with actually a bit
of lowering of thickness values, but drying aloft combined with some
weak subsidence will suppress diurnal thunderstorm trends. Have kept
some lingering pops in southern zones but backed off somewhat across
the northern tier and mountains. The upper ridge tries to make a
comeback late in the work week as it ridges back to the east, with
the GFS a little more aggressive than the ECMWF. Continued the trend
of blending operational and ensemble guidance so at this point
nothing new or remarkable for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT...With the NC piedmont being the last region to loose their
low clouds today, it lags behind in the diurnal destabilization
process early this afternoon.  However, with favorable moisture
profiles regionwide, and the convection allowing model consensus
translating tstms into the region later this afternoon, feel that
there is a better than even money threat for thunder to affect the
terminal at some point during the 5 hour period after 20z. With
diurnal lessening of cvrg this evening, feel that additional storm
chances are not greater than 30 percent after 03z to include a
prob30 mention.  Unless considerable rain does fall atop the
terminal later today (which typically increases the chances for IFR
during the warm season), similar blyr moisture levels and flow are
progged to develop early Sunday morning, so a period of MVFR
conditions looks to be probable.

Elsewhere...Based on the expected cvrg of tstms this afternoon and
evening a tempo tsra will be carrier at all terminals into about
early evening. Widespread flight restrictions should develop
overnight with localized LIFR conditions, just like this morning.

Outlook...Fairly typical midsummer weather with afternoon showers
and thunderstorms expected each day through at least the middle of
next week. A frontal boundary will sag south into the region by
early tomorrow and stall out, keeping daily coverage enhanced. Each
day, AM fog and low stratus will be possible in the mountain river
valleys and also in locations that receive heavy rainfall in the
preceding PM.

Confidence Table...

            17-23Z        23-05Z        05-11Z        11-12Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KAVL       High 100%     Med   65%     High  95%     High  93%
KHKY       Med   62%     High 100%     High 100%     High  93%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  83%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARK/CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
531 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-170945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
531 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY
HAIL PRODUCED WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN QUARTER SIZED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NCZ505-506-161815-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
141 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM
EDT...

AT 140 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARION...OR NEAR OLD FORT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARION...OLD FORT...LAKE JAMES
STATE PARK...LAKE JAMES...SUGAR HILL... NEBO...GLENWOOD...PLEASANT
GARDENS AND FERO.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 8217 3572 8219 3573 8189 3555 8189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 273DEG 14KT 3563 8211

SW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

SCZ012-161815-
LAURENS SC-
147 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAURENS COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 146 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTH OF LAURENS...OR NEAR CROSS HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOANNA...CROSS HILL AND MOUNTVILLE.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3427 8194 3433 8204 3446 8188 3441 8180
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 222DEG 7KT 3433 8196

SW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NCZ501-502-504-161815-
GREATER CALDWELL NC-GREATER BURKE NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-
151 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CALDWELL AND CENTRAL
BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 150 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES WEST OF LENOIR...OR 4 MILES WEST OF GAMEWELL...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... LENOIR...SAWMILLS...GRANITE
FALLS...GAMEWELL...HUDSON...CAJAH'S MOUNTAIN... CEDAR
ROCK...COLLETTSVILLE...KINGS CREEK AND PATTERSON.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3579 8142 3581 8175 3588 8175 3590 8173
      3591 8175 3592 8175 3593 8176 3596 8176
      3601 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 1750Z 267DEG 15KT 3588 8167

SW