Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1200 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WITH GOOD INSTABILITY IN AREAS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM MAINLY EAST OF HWY 83 IN KANSAS. WE ARE
EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. THESE STORMS WILL START AS INDEPENDENT
CELLS OR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON THEN FORM INTO A BROKEN LINE
AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH AREAS OF FOG OR MIST POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOWS TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY HAS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
DAKOTAS...WHICH POSITIONS A TROUGH OVER THE CWA. AS THE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA A RIDGE BEGINS TO FORM ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CONUS. THE TROUGH IS EAST OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE GFS HAS THIS
PATTERN INHIBITING THE RIDGE FROM FULLY ENGULFING THE CWA AND STAYS
SITTING OVER THE 4 CORNERS AND THE EUROPEAN HAS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY WHICH PUSHES THE RIDGE OVER THE CWA
SATURDAY. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE RIDGING. THERE
ARE SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AS A FEW 700 MB
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AT BOTH TAF
SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND 21Z AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK AS THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO FORM IN THE REGION.
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE REGION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY WITH MIST OR FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 14Z WITH POSSIBLE
IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY AT KMCK THROUGH MID MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1013 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091615-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1013 AM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016 /1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY EAST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

COZ091-082045-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
221 PM MDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 217 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
VONA...OR 7 MILES WEST OF STRATTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STRATTON...SEIBERT AND VONA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 402 AND
420.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3917 10278 3925 10295 3955 10292 3936 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 216DEG 14KT 3928 10273

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