Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Goodland, KS

235 
WWUS53 KGLD 080304
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1004 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSC039-137-080345-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160508T0345Z/
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-
1004 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN DECATUR AND NORTON COUNTIES...

AT 1004 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LENORA...OR 19 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOXIE...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTON...LENORA...NORCATUR...CLAYTON...NEW ALMELO AND REAGER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 9994 3957 10027 4000 10019 4000 9968
TIME...MOT...LOC 0304Z 199DEG 49KT 3952 10015 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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194 
WWUS53 KGLD 080318
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1018 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSC039-137-080345-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160508T0345Z/
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-
1018 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DECATUR AND WESTERN NORTON COUNTIES...

AT 1018 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CLAYTON...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTON...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTON...NORCATUR...CLAYTON AND REAGER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3962 10001 3963 10025 4000 10019 4000 9972
TIME...MOT...LOC 0318Z 199DEG 50KT 3969 10008 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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744 
WWUS53 KGLD 080327
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSC039-080337-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160508T0345Z/
DECATUR KS-
1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3970 9999 3972 10012 4000 10014 4000 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 203DEG 52KT 3980 10002 

$$

KSC137-080345-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160508T0345Z/
NORTON KS-
1027 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTON COUNTY...

AT 1027 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF
NORTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTON AND REAGER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 9999 3972 10012 4000 10014 4000 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 203DEG 52KT 3980 10002 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HUSTED

705 
WWUS53 KGLD 080343
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSC137-080353-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160508T0345Z/
NORTON KS-
1043 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3970 9999 3972 10012 4000 10014 4000 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 203DEG 55KT 3980 10002 

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
626 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

WARM SECTOR REALLY STRUGGLING TO INITIATE CONVECTION AND DESPITE
WHAT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN INDICATING...PROBABILITIES OF A
LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG DRY LINE APPEAR TO BE DECREASING.
STILL THINK REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NORTH OF WARM FRONT...BUT HAVE BACKED OFF POPS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH
OF I-70.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SHORT DURATION HIGH WIND
EVENT BEHIND THE DRY LINE IN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO.

STARTING TO SEE MORE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF DRY
LINE AND EXPECT FOR THIS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA NOT
NEARLY AS BACKED AS NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA...TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE LESS AND DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO ADJUST CURRENT
WATCHES. HAVE INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT AND TRIED TO BE A BIT
MORE DETERMINISTIC AS THIS NEXT AREA OF STORMS DEVELOP AS EXPECT A
FAIRLY SOLID LINE TO DEVELOP BY 00Z.

MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 45-50 KT WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR AS
DRYLINE BEGINS TO MOVE. BASED ON LAA AND NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS...WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS LIMITED AND PEAK
VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 48 KTS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN ANY
WIDESPREAD PERSISTENT HIGH WIND THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OUT
OF EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE AS LIFT
OVERCOMES THE CAPPING MECHANISM THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL HOWEVER THERE IS AN
INCREASED FAVORABILITY FOR TORNADOES IN YUMA...KIT CARSON...AND
CHEYENNE CO COUNTIES THROUGH AROUND 01Z. DRIER AIR WILL BE PULLED
INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF HWY 27 AS A
WELL DEVELOPED DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUNDAYS THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AT THE START
OF THIS PERIOD.  WIDE SPREAD LIFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE CLOSED LOW SUNDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE A DRY LINE WILL BE
NEAR THE HIGHWAY 27 CORRIDOR.  THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AS A RESULT.  FURTHER
WEST A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.  THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRY
LINE...BUT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
EAST OF THE DRY LINE SUNDAY EVENING.

OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA.  AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THE WRAP
AROUND CIRCULATION OF THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE DRY LINE AND THE
COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE DEW POINTS TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  THIS MAY CAUSE ANY STORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STRONGER.

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SEMI-STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
BORDER OF THE AREA. WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS STILL POOLED ALONG THE
FRONT...STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. AM NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 10-15 KTS. DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN WITH IT.
BEHIND THE TROUGH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH.  FOLLOWING
THE RIDGE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAINFALL WITH IT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

FOR 00Z TAFS...INITIAL CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES. WHILE IT LOOKED LIKE A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION...HAS REALLY STRUGGLED
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF RESULTING IN VERY SPARSE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IN AREA SOUTH OF WARM FRONT. WITH THESE TRENDS...THINKING GLD HAS
A LOWER PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND
DO NOT EXPECT A BIG IMPACT. MCK...STILL LOOKS LIKE WILL SEE A
PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...BUT OVERALL CERTAINTY TOO LOW TO REALLY
BRING DOWN FLIGHT CATEGORIES. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG DEVELOP AT
MCK AS WELL...BUT VERY CONDITIONAL ON HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE AND
LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
107 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081915-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
107 PM MDT SAT MAY 7 2016 /207 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM MDT OR 4 PM CDT AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
DECLINING OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. THE
GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE SEVERE WEATHER WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
STORM REPORTS THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA OR BY PHONE ARE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
758 PM MDT SAT MAY 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             7 N TASCO               39.45N 100.31W
05/07/2016  E1.00 INCH       SHERIDAN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
759 PM MDT SAT MAY 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     HAIL             CULBERTSON              40.23N 100.84W
05/07/2016  E0.25 INCH       HITCHCOCK          NE   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
801 PM MDT SAT MAY 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             15 N WRAY               40.30N 102.23W
05/07/2016  E1.50 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            HAIL BETWEEN 1800 AND 1830 LOCAL TIME.

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
832 PM MDT SAT MAY 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             3 S PARK                39.07N 100.36W
05/07/2016  E1.75 INCH       GOVE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
843 PM MDT SAT MAY 07 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             NORCATUR                39.83N 100.19W
05/07/2016  E1.50 INCH       DECATUR            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
952 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

KSZ029-080300-
GOVE KS-
952 PM CDT SAT MAY 7 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GOVE COUNTY UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 952 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES NORTH OF UTICA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL GOVE
COUNTY.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3872 10016 3884 10032 3899 10015 3873 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 224DEG 43KT 3884 10017

HUSTED