Severe Thunderstorm Warning 525, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
203 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 152 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

Main concerns once again are thunderstorm coverage and heavy
rainfall/flash flooding/flooding concerns. Confidence is lowered
due to poor performance of models with yesterdays event, and some
model disagreement on how the evolution of tonight will pan out.
Air mass remains very moist and unstable. Area soundings this
morning showed precipitable water values near 1.5 inches.

A persistent instability/theta-e axis remains draped across the
center of the area from southwest to northeast. There one surface
boundary near the western end of the area and another draped over
the eastern end. PV/Satellite analysis show a decent shortwave
moving in from the southwest. At the same time all the models show
a right rear quadrant of the upper draped across the area. The
shortwave and jet lift move across the area from west/southwest to
the east through the evening.

Where the models are having trouble is where to put the
development. Some have it in the west and others in the east.
Considering that currently thunderstorms have developed and are
now moving into the western portion of the area, that looks to be
the way to go. Current trends favor the Rap and Hrrr.

So expect scattered thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall to move
across the area once again. Due to instability and shear in place,
severe looks likely as well. All in all a similar setup to the
last few days. So will keep the flash flood watch going with the
northeast portion of the area extremely susceptible to more
rainfall and flooding.

For Monday...with exception of jet lift, setup looks similar
tomorrow. Instability/moisture axis remains in the same place. So
more thunderstorms will be expected along with locally heavy
rainfall and possible severe.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

Trough extends down out of western Canada all the say into the
southern portions of California Monday night into Tuesday morning
with high pressure over the southern Mississippi Valley. The surface
boundary draped from southwest to northeast across the CWA continues
to remain nearly stationary as we head through the day on Tuesday.
This will provide a focus for scattered thunderstorm activity
through the afternoon and into the evening once more with only
moderate instability and relatively weak upper level support
provided by passing shortwaves. A cold front will push through the
region later on Tuesday with slightly drier air behind it that will
linger into the middle to end of the week. Dry weather prevails
through Saturday with another, stronger cold front traversing the
region on Friday. Due to dry air in place preceding the front, PoPs
will be low across the CWA and should remain east of the region.

Afternoon high temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s
Tuesday with a few 90 degree locations in the eastern portions of
the CWA. Slightly cooler highs prevail for Wednesday and Thursday
with highs in the middle 80s. Cold frontal passage will cool things
off a bit heading into Friday and Saturday with afternoon high
temperatures reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Sun Sep 4 2016

Generally clearing skies are being observed at both TAF sites with
VFR conditions at kgld and becoming VFR at KMCK. We will see
another chance of thunderstorms this afternoon at both locations
with a better chance at KMCK. Stayed with VCTS at KGLD due to
uncertainty with regards to the location of the TS initiation. A
relatively strong low level jet will form and bring LLWS to KMCK
beginning later this afternoon.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...NONE.
NE...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...TL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1046 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-051200-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1046 AM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016 /1146 AM CDT SUN SEP 4 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THREATS INCLUDE GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW TORNADOES
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR RAPIDLY FOR
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAIN REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
929 AM MDT SUN SEP 04 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     FLOOD            3 NW MORLAND            39.37N 100.11W
09/04/2016                   GRAHAM             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPARTMENT CLOSED THE ACCESS ROADS TO ANTELOPE
            LAKE DUE TO WATER COVERING THE ROADS.

&&

TLYNCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

COZ092-042015-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
153 PM MDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

AT 152 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF EADS...OR 27 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHEYENNE
WELLS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON.

LAT...LON 3890 10275 3877 10245 3861 10259 3861 10289
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 208DEG 42KT 3860 10277

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