Severe Thunderstorm Warning 512, NWS Goodland, KS

508 
WWUS53 KGLD 040029
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
629 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

KSC023-153-NEC057-087-040100-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0512.000000T0000Z-160904T0100Z/
RAWLINS KS-CHEYENNE KS-DUNDY NE-HITCHCOCK NE-
629 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM
MDT/800 PM CDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN DUNDY AND SOUTHWESTERN
HITCHCOCK COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...

AT 628 PM MDT/728 PM CDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BENKELMAN...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...PUBLIC. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3985 10138 3995 10157 4019 10139 4005 10108
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 169DEG 7KT 3999 10137 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
600 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Updated forecast to adjust for increased coverage of Flash Flood
Watch to include all counties currently in Severe Thunderstorm
Watch. Storms in E/NE zones are dropping torrential rainfall
prompting issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Through tonight...Thunderstorms have already developed in eastern
Colorado where there is plenty of sun and little to no cap. These
storms have developed near a surface boundary and in advance of a
strong shortwave trough and upper jet. This development should
continue with increasing coverage through the afternoon into the
evening hours.

Convective allowing guidance has caught on this rather well so
considering the trends and decent agreement increased or maintained
high pops into the evening. Many locations in my southern and
western forecast area received 2 to 6 inches of rainfall last
night with reports of flash and areal flooding being received.
Pwats are 1 to near 1.5 inches, similar to last night. So issued a
Flash Flood Watch, through late tonight, for those counties with a
lot of the model output producing heavy rainfall in the same area,
especially in the southern half of my area. Collaboration with Wpc
increased my confidence as well. So for my entire area I have
moderate to heavy rainfall.

In addition, with moisture, shear, and instability parameters about
the same or better than yesterday, also have inserted severe
wording in the forecast and emphasized this in the hwo. Parameters
in place through this evening that will make large hail and a few
tornadoes possible.

For Sunday...do not have a good feel for this day, and have not
had as much time to look at it. Looks like we will be moist and
unstable again with another shortwave moving in. Looks like slight
chance to low chance pops will suffice for now, but this will have
to be looked at again. Models warmed up tomorrow but will need to
see how tonight goes with areal coverage of rainfall and if there
will be any mesoscale affects from the overnight convection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Deep upper low will be situated over the northern Rockies Sunday
night and into Monday with a high pressure ridge in place over the
middle Mississippi Valley. Multiple weak troughs will traverse the
CWA as we will be situated within the gradient between these two
features. A theta-e boundary will set up in the central portions of
the CWA and will move back and forth as these troughs traverse the
region. We will see PoPs diminish along the boundary on Sunday night
as instability is lost. Another slgt chc of thunderstorms is in the
forecast for Monday mainly during the afternoon with the boundary
providing a focus for development. Upper level support is a bit weak
thus coverage will be isolated.

The upper low will push eastward on Tuesday and Wednesday and
develop a surface low and associated trough/cold front in the
northern Plains as we head into Thursday. This front will remain
mainly north of the CWA Tuesday with the better thunderstorm chances
remaining north of I-70. The front will slide east on Wednesday with
dry weather expected through Friday.

Above normal high temperatures in the lower 90s prevail on Monday
with near normal temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday, we will see high temperatures near to
slightly below average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight lows will fall into the middle 50s in eastern Colorado to
the lower 70s in the eastern portions of the CWA through tuesday
with with lower 50s to lower 60s Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2016

For KGLD...Mainly VFR for sky conditions. IFR visibility to 1
1/2sm in rainfall with potential thunderstorms from 01z-03z. Winds
SSW 15-25kts...with some VRB30g55kt in TRW from 01z-03z.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR/MVFR sky mix w/ ceilings dropping down to
bkn025-030 at times. IFR visibility to 1 1/2sm in moderate to
heavy rainfall in TRW from 00z-02z. Winds SSE 15-25kts...with
some VRB30g55kt in TRW from 00z- 02z.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029.

CO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-042345-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
536 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016 /636 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA. THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FEW TORNADOES. IF
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LAST NIGHT...FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAIN REGION ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
526 PM MDT SAT SEP 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             3 S MCCOOK              40.16N 100.62W
09/03/2016  E1.75 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TLYNCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

COZ091-032345-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
537 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

AT 537 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BETHUNE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURLINGTON...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTROM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON AND BETHUNE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 427 AND 447.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 176 AND 192.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3942 10213 3922 10205 3916 10205 3911 10240
      3929 10247
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 251DEG 29KT 3923 10235

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

COZ091-040015-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
548 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

AT 548 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BURLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS THUNDERSTROM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURLINGTON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 IN COLORADO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 433 AND 450.
 HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 177 AND 191.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3942 10205 3919 10205 3914 10231 3931 10238
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 251DEG 29KT 3926 10226

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
558 PM MDT SAT SEP 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSW BURLINGTON        39.24N 102.29W
09/03/2016  M58 MPH          KIT CARSON         CO   ASOS

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
659 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016

KSZ001-002-040015-
CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS KS-
659 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RAWLINS AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

AT 659 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BENKELMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
RAWLINS AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3989 10119 3982 10143 3997 10156 4000 10152
      4000 10128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 236DEG 7KT 3994 10142

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
606 PM MDT SAT SEP 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     HAIL             SE JENNINGS             39.68N 100.29W
09/03/2016  E0.50 INCH       DECATUR            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL

&&

JN