Severe Thunderstorm Warning 515, NWS Goodland, KS

899 
WWUS53 KGLD 040110
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
710 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

COC017-KSC071-199-040120-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0515.000000T0000Z-160904T0130Z/
CHEYENNE CO-WALLACE KS-GREELEY KS-
710 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE AND NORTHWESTERN
GREELEY COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3862 10205 3862 10228 3886 10218 3879 10169
      3850 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 217DEG 29KT 3874 10199 

$$

024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
600 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Updated forecast to adjust for increased coverage of Flash Flood
Watch to include all counties currently in Severe Thunderstorm
Watch. Storms in E/NE zones are dropping torrential rainfall
prompting issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Through tonight...Thunderstorms have already developed in eastern
Colorado where there is plenty of sun and little to no cap. These
storms have developed near a surface boundary and in advance of a
strong shortwave trough and upper jet. This development should
continue with increasing coverage through the afternoon into the
evening hours.

Convective allowing guidance has caught on this rather well so
considering the trends and decent agreement increased or maintained
high pops into the evening. Many locations in my southern and
western forecast area received 2 to 6 inches of rainfall last
night with reports of flash and areal flooding being received.
Pwats are 1 to near 1.5 inches, similar to last night. So issued a
Flash Flood Watch, through late tonight, for those counties with a
lot of the model output producing heavy rainfall in the same area,
especially in the southern half of my area. Collaboration with Wpc
increased my confidence as well. So for my entire area I have
moderate to heavy rainfall.

In addition, with moisture, shear, and instability parameters about
the same or better than yesterday, also have inserted severe
wording in the forecast and emphasized this in the hwo. Parameters
in place through this evening that will make large hail and a few
tornadoes possible.

For Sunday...do not have a good feel for this day, and have not
had as much time to look at it. Looks like we will be moist and
unstable again with another shortwave moving in. Looks like slight
chance to low chance pops will suffice for now, but this will have
to be looked at again. Models warmed up tomorrow but will need to
see how tonight goes with areal coverage of rainfall and if there
will be any mesoscale affects from the overnight convection.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2016

Deep upper low will be situated over the northern Rockies Sunday
night and into Monday with a high pressure ridge in place over the
middle Mississippi Valley. Multiple weak troughs will traverse the
CWA as we will be situated within the gradient between these two
features. A theta-e boundary will set up in the central portions of
the CWA and will move back and forth as these troughs traverse the
region. We will see PoPs diminish along the boundary on Sunday night
as instability is lost. Another slgt chc of thunderstorms is in the
forecast for Monday mainly during the afternoon with the boundary
providing a focus for development. Upper level support is a bit weak
thus coverage will be isolated.

The upper low will push eastward on Tuesday and Wednesday and
develop a surface low and associated trough/cold front in the
northern Plains as we head into Thursday. This front will remain
mainly north of the CWA Tuesday with the better thunderstorm chances
remaining north of I-70. The front will slide east on Wednesday with
dry weather expected through Friday.

Above normal high temperatures in the lower 90s prevail on Monday
with near normal temperatures in the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday, we will see high temperatures near to
slightly below average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Overnight lows will fall into the middle 50s in eastern Colorado to
the lower 70s in the eastern portions of the CWA through tuesday
with with lower 50s to lower 60s Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Sat Sep 3 2016

For KGLD...Mainly VFR for sky conditions. IFR visibility to 1
1/2sm in rainfall with potential thunderstorms from 01z-03z. Winds
SSW 15-25kts...with some VRB30g55kt in TRW from 01z-03z.

For KMCK...Mainly VFR/MVFR sky mix w/ ceilings dropping down to
bkn025-030 at times. IFR visibility to 1 1/2sm in moderate to
heavy rainfall in TRW from 00z-02z. Winds SSE 15-25kts...with
some VRB30g55kt in TRW from 00z- 02z.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029.

CO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for COZ090>092.

NE...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-042345-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
536 PM MDT SAT SEP 3 2016 /636 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI
STATE AREA. THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FEW TORNADOES. IF
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LAST NIGHT...FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR RAPIDLY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAIN REGION ALMOST EVERY PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT SAT SEP 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             9 SE BENKELMAN          39.96N 101.41W
09/03/2016  E1.00 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
729 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016

NEZ081-040100-
RED WILLOW NE-
729 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RED WILLOW COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM CDT...

AT 729 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCCOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MCCOOK AND INDIANOLA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4008 10032 4001 10076 4017 10076 4030 10039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 243DEG 9KT 4015 10050

HUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
636 PM MDT SAT SEP 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     4 NE MORLAND            39.39N 100.02W
09/03/2016                   GRAHAM             KS   STORM CHASER

            A FEW BRIEF FUNNELS REPORTED. REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
639 PM MDT SAT SEP 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             MCCOOK                  40.20N 100.62W
09/03/2016  E1.25 INCH       RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
739 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016

KSZ003-004-040115-
DECATUR KS-NORTON KS-
739 PM CDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR AND
SOUTHWESTERN NORTON COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 739 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF LENORA TO 4 MILES EAST OF
DRESDEN. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LENORA...JENNINGS...CLAYTON...DRESDEN AND NEW ALMELO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3957 10000 3957 10046 3978 10034 3981 9980
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 223DEG 23KT 3970 9999 3960 10035

HUSTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
644 PM MDT SAT SEP 03 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0643 PM     HAIL             1 N PENOKEE             39.36N 99.97W
09/03/2016  M0.50 INCH       GRAHAM             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL WITH 50 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY
            RAINFALL.

&&

JN