Severe Thunderstorm Warning 357, NWS Goodland, KS

608 
WWUS53 KGLD 152042
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

KSC199-152052-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0357.000000T0000Z-160715T2100Z/
WALLACE KS-
242 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3862 10205 3862 10235 3882 10230 3878 10205
      3876 10204 3870 10205 3870 10202 3854 10196
      3851 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 338DEG 17KT 3862 10199 

$$

COC017-KSC071-152100-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0357.000000T0000Z-160715T2100Z/
CHEYENNE CO-GREELEY KS-
242 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND
NORTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 242 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHEAST
OF TOWNER...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRIBUNE...MOVING SOUTH AT 20
MPH.

HAZARD...TWO INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND
NORTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 136 AND 141.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DEADLY STORM. SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. ABANDON VEHICLES IN
SEARCH OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PERMANENT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3862 10205 3862 10235 3882 10230 3878 10205
      3876 10204 3870 10205 3870 10202 3854 10196
      3851 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 338DEG 17KT 3862 10199 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

024

843 
WWUS53 KGLD 152102
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

COC017-KSC071-152112-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0357.000000T0000Z-160715T2100Z/
CHEYENNE CO-GREELEY KS-
302 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN GREELEY COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS HAS EXPIRED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3862 10205 3862 10235 3882 10230 3878 10205
      3876 10204 3870 10205 3870 10202 3854 10196
      3851 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 338DEG 17KT 3862 10199 

$$

024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
148 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016

Thunderstorms have already developed in vicinity of meso low near
the Colorado and Kansas border. SB CAPE exceeds 3000 J/KG with
axis extending along and ahead of stalled front (currently near
Goodland)in northeast to southeast orientation. Strong mid level
flow along with veering wind profiles have resulted in effective
helicity values exceeding 300 m2/s2 overlapping this strong region
of CAPE. LCLs are a little high in favorable warm sector, however
tornadic threat exists considering high CAPE/shear environment.
Large hail (baseball size or larger) and strong microbursts will
be threats with the activity this afternoon.

High resolution guidance shows this activity increasing in
coverage and eventually merging into a MCS as shortwave (nose of
which is in central Colorado) moves over this stalled front. This
is then shown to dive south along CAPE axis, which puts the peak
threat for severe weather no through around 00z in our CWA.
Increasing ascent and the possibility that the front begins to
lift back north raises the possibility that additional activity
(likely elevated) could develop across much of our CWA this
afternoon/evening. Some guidance has shown possibility for
elevated convective activity developing later in the evening and
overnight behind the departing MCS, so I lingered slight chances
in our north and east where this weaker signal is shown.

A similar air mass as this morning is indicated overnight and
depending on clearing we should have similar low temps (60-66).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 143 PM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016

Saturday and Sunday: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
across far southwest Nebraska will be possible Saturday afternoon
with isolated thunderstorm chances elsewhere as a weak shortwave
traverses the region. A ridge will begin to slowly build into the
central Plains through the day on Sunday with an axis centered in
northern TX and southern OK. Moisture levels will increase in the
western portions of the CWA along the edge of the ridge which could
lead to slight chances for afternoon/evening thunderstorms on
Sunday and Monday. There will be modest mid-afternoon
instability on Sunday and good instability on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday: High pressure ridge at the H5 lvl will
approach 600dam by early Tuesday, remaining locked in over the
region through the forecast period. Afternoon high temperatures
will reach or slightly exceed 100 degrees across much of the CWA
with dew points in the 50 to 55 degree range on Wednesday and
Thursday. PoPs are nearly nil Tuesday through Thursday as the
ridge will prevail and dry, hot, weather will dominate the central
High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016

Primary aviation concern will be thunderstorm activity at both
KGLD and KMCK. Early in the TAF period showers/thunderstorms are
in the process of moving within the vicinity/over KMCK and should
be east of the terminal after another hour. Additional (strong to
severe) thunderstorm activity is expected to develop near the
Colorado state line with activity increasing in coverage through
the afternoon and spreading south and east. This should impact
KGLD and move within the vicinity of KMCK. Activity should
transition out of the vicinity of both terminals by late evening.
Lingering low level moisture could lead to periods of stratus
development around 1200-2500 kft...mainly around sunrise. I was
not confident enough to introduce this as guidance is showing a
very large spread and consensus is favoring VFR at both terminals.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161645-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 /1140 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT).

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
104 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

COZ091-092-KSZ013-027-151915-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-WALLACE KS-SHERMAN KS-
104 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

AT 103 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTH OF KANORADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...THOSE IN THE IMPACTED AREA SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN KIT
CARSON AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 168 AND 169.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3902 10229 3927 10215 3919 10175 3890 10189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 297DEG 25KT 3911 10205

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 N ARAPAHOE            38.92N 102.16W
07/15/2016                   CHEYENNE           CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BWARREN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
214 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     TORNADO          5 S ARAPAHOE            38.78N 102.16W
07/15/2016                   CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

&&

BWARREN