Severe Thunderstorm Warning 348, NWS Goodland, KS

071 
WWUS53 KGLD 150027
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COC017-150037-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0348.000000T0000Z-160715T0045Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
627 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO IS CANCELLED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
GOODLAND.

LAT...LON 3904 10316 3904 10302 3891 10284 3878 10310
      3887 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 324DEG 12KT 3896 10313 

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
550 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)
Issued at 3:30 PM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Surface map is rather chaotic with generally weak flow and lack of
well defined features. Thunderstorms are currently developing over
eastern Colorado in weak upslope flow and along and ahead of wind
convergent zone which lies just west of forecast area. Decent CAPE
of 1500 J/KG and deep layer shear of 35 kts is present to promote
storm organization next 4-5 hours with a few splitting storms into
the evening hours. Mean winds are from 290 deg around 15 kts so
storms will be slow to enter far western Kansas late this afternoon
and evening.

Guidance overnight into Friday suggests a thunderstorm complex may
develop further north in Nebraska/South Dakota and move southeast
overnight and graze the extreme northeast portion of the CWA Friday
morning. Confidence is not all that high that we will be affected as
the bulk of the precip may remain to our northeast but this feature
is mentioned in forecast. By mid-afternoon, sfc heating will erase
convective inhibition and scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop on any remaining mesoscale boundaries.

Temps Friday will be similar to this afternoon with highs remaining
in the 80s and little change in 850 mb temps next 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Friday night and Saturday morning: Shortwave trough moves across the
region with thunderstorm chances prevailing through the night. CAPE
values remain in the 1200 to 1800 J/Kg range through the overnight
with very high shear values of 50 to 70 kt. We could see elevated
supercell mode of convection with large hail risk mainly in the
eastern portions of the CWA as the H5 shortwave exits the region.
Although there is some disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF with
regards to CAPE and deep layer shear, overall spacial and temporal
agreement looks good.

Saturday and Sunday: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
across far southwest Nebraska will be possible Saturday afternoon
with isolated thunderstorm chances elsewhere as a weak shortwave
traverses the region. A ridge begins to build into the central
Plains through the day on Sunday with an axis centered in northern
TX and southern OK. Moisture levels will increase in the western
portions of the CWA along the edge of the ridge which could lead to
slight chances for evening/nighttime thunderstorms on Sunday. It is
worth noting that due to the proximity of the ridge it will be
difficult to initiate convection therefore I left pops in the 10-15
percent range.

Monday through Wednesday: Medium range guidance indicates daily PoPs
across the region; however with the ridge firmly in place over the
central Plains, I left PoPs nil to slgt which is probably
optimistic. High pressure ridge at the H5 lvl will approach 600dam
by late Monday and early Tuesday, remaining locked in over the
region through the forecast period. Will need to pay close attention
to high temperatures as superblend is persistent with highs in the
upper 90s and some 100s. With very strong ridging in play we may be
looking to easily exceed 100 degrees by mid-week across much of the
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 541 PM MDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Vfr conditions are expected at this time. Models having a hard
time catching onto what is going on right now. Surface convergence
occurring over the far south and southwest portion of the area at
this time with a right rear quadrant of upper jet on top of it.
That area is slow moving and some indication per what where the
right rear quadrant goes and mid level warm air advection that
this area should continue to move slowly toward the east.

From this first round of thunderstorms, it looks like Kmck will be
precipitation free. At this time am thinking that this first
cluster of storms will not affect kgld and will leave out. Models
then depict a thunderstorm complex to move in from Nebraska late
tonight and early tomorrow morning. However, models also disagree
on this and any resulting convection in the afternoon due to
problematic location of where outflow boundary ends up. At this
time put in vcts for Kmck in the 11z to 15z time frame and then
once again beginning at 20z.

However, indications are that afternoon development could be
further west. However, left any mention of thunderstorms out of
the Kgld forecast.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BULLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1055 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-151700-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1055 AM MDT THU JUL 14 2016 /1155 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE
OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...AND ALSO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN HAZARDS IN
ADDITION TO CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW TO 60 MPH AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
303 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ091-092-142115-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
303 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 315 PM
MDT...

AT 303 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF KIT CARSON...OR 21 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE
WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FIRSTVIEW.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 159.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3904 10296 3910 10272 3903 10253 3892 10230
      3871 10265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 312DEG 26KT 3893 10272

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
335 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             12 N KIT CARSON         38.94N 102.80W
07/14/2016  E1.75 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

            PEA TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL. ENDED AT TIME OF EVENT.

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
449 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             6 SE KIT CARSON         38.70N 102.72W
07/14/2016  E0.88 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

&&

HILL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             11 NE BOYERO            39.03N 103.13W
07/14/2016  E0.88 INCH       CHEYENNE           CO   PUBLIC

            ENDED AROUND TIME OF EVENT.

&&

HILL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
514 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

COZ092-142330-
CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-
514 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

AT 514 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4
MILES WEST OF KIT CARSON...OR 29 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE
WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3865 10298 3884 10297 3888 10264 3867 10267
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 271DEG 21KT 3876 10288

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
601 PM MDT THU JUL 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             2 W FLAGLER             39.29N 103.10W
07/14/2016  E1.75 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT AT MILE MARKER 393 ON I-70.

&&

HILL