Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1141 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016

Latest upper air analysis indicates northwest flow over the Plains.
Embedded in the flow are several subtle short wave troughs.  One of
these troughs is accompanying a small group of storms in the
Northern Plains southward.  Am expecting the short wave trough with
the storms currently in South Dakota to trigger storms over Nebraska
as it moves southward.

This morning a group of storms may move over the northeast part of
the Tri-State Area ahead of the short wave trough that was over the
Northern Plains during the night.  Models disagree with whether the
environment will be unstable enough for the storms to develop.
However most of the storm activity with this short wave trough will
be east of the area. Behind this short wave trough another one will
develop over the northwest part of the area over the dry line during
the late morning and early afternoon then move southeast. Near term
model data indicates a broken line of storms develop ahead of this
trough in the late morning then possibly fade as the storms move
southeast away from the lift of the trough.

During the afternoon southeast winds will become breezy and one of
two scenarios for storm activity may occur with the short wave
trough over the west. Either it will move southeast and continue to
generate storms ahead of it with another short wave trough
developing over the west part of the area or the trough will linger
over the west and deepen...sending out storms ahead of it through
the afternoon. Due to the complicated array of short wave troughs
moving through today difficult to have confidence in the behavior
of one particular short wave trough. Either way chances for rainfall
increase during the afternoon as a short wave trough deepens over
the dry line on the western border of the area and then begins to
move southeast as the environment becomes more unstable. Outflow
winds from the storm activity will aid in triggering additional
storm development in the unstable environment with large scale lift
overhead.

Tonight storm activity will be at its peak during the early evening
as the short wave trough continues to move southeast across the Tri-
State Area.  The storm activity will come to an end from west to
east during the night.

Am expecting the storms today to be strong to severe. Main threats
will be hail up to baseball size and damaging wind gusts. With a
strengthening low level jet in the afternoon especially the late
afternoon, and LCLs fairly low a tornado may develop from any
existing thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 246 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016

Saturday will be dry despite a short wave trough moving across the
Tri-State Area.  The large dew point depressions and a cap will
prevent any storms from firing most of the day.  During the latter
half of the afternoon close to early evening elevated CAPE will
develop north of Highway 36 along the nose of a developing low level
jet.  In addition an upper level short wave trough will move across
this elevated CAPE field beginning close to early evening.  Am
expecting the trough to trigger storms along the dry line initially
with storm activity continuing eastward along the elevated CAPE axis.

Saturday night the elevated CAPE axis will expand east north of
Highway 36 as the upper level short wave trough continues to move
eastward along this axis.  Am expecting storm activity to spread
east ahead of the upper level trough.  Locations east of Highway 83
may have some storm activity overnight as the elevated CAPE axis
shifts over that part of the area before the short wave trough exits
the Tri-State Area.

Sunday will be dry for most of the day as laminar flow moves over
the area.  A pre-frontal trough will move through the area during
the morning causing the winds to turn to the north then east through
the day.  Behind the pre-frontal trough mid level dewpoints
increase.  During the latter half of the afternoon an upper level
short wave trough will move into the Tri-State Area from the west.
Storms will develop along the dry line west of the area then
accompany the short wave trough into the area.

Sunday night the short wave will move across the area.  Due to the
somewhat large dew point depression am thinking the storm activity
will be fairly isolated across the area.

Monday through Thursday are going to be drier and hotter across the
Tri-State region due to a strong ridge centered over the mid CONUS
states. The GFS and European have potential for PoPs each day but
confidence is low that there will be any precipitation due to the
strength of the high pressure. The only day, currently, that slight
PoPs were included in the forecast was Monday night due to the
models showing a stronger signal that period. The remainder of the
long term period will be dry. Temperatures are expected to reach the
100s by Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM MDT Fri Jul 15 2016

Primary aviation concern will be thunderstorm activity at both
KGLD and KMCK. Early in the TAF period showers/thunderstorms are
in the process of moving within the vicinity/over KMCK and should
be east of the terminal after another hour. Additional (strong to
severe) thunderstorm activity is expected to develop near the
Colorado state line with activity increasing in coverage through
the afternoon and spreading south and east. This should impact
KGLD and move within the vicinity of KMCK. Activity should
transition out of the vicinity of both terminals by late evening.
Lingering low level moisture could lead to periods of stratus
development around 1200-2500 kft...mainly around sunrise. I was
not confident enough to introduce this as guidance is showing a
very large spread and consensus is favoring VFR at both terminals.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/CLT
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-161645-
YUMA COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-CHEYENNE COUNTY-CHEYENNE-RAWLINS-
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-
GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016 /1140 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COLORADO STATE LINE AND SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE ENTIRE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY UP TO BASEBALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...STRONG
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT).

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
104 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

COZ091-092-KSZ013-027-151915-
KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-CHEYENNE COUNTY CO-WALLACE KS-SHERMAN KS-
104 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON AND
NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

AT 103 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTH OF KANORADO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM MAY
STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY...THOSE IN THE IMPACTED AREA SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN KIT
CARSON AND NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 168 AND 169.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3902 10229 3927 10215 3919 10175 3890 10189
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 297DEG 25KT 3911 10205

JRM