Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
953 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Continue to adjust pops to account for track of severe squall
line propagating across nw-west central MN. Also increased winds
in high wind warning area as wake low propagates eastward behind
squall line.

UPDATE Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Current radar showing three cells associated with storm what has
moved along the I 94 corridor throughout the night now moving into
western FA, with northernmost cell intensifying. Cells have been
moving along tight Theta e gradient and now shifting northeast
along the gradient. More development now beginning along SFC
trough from Kittson Co southwest into Devils Lake. Will increase
POPs for northeastern ND and far northwest MN. Per discussion with
SPC, cells are moving into shearless environment and further
eastward expansion of watch is not anticipated although there
certainly will be some strong to severe storms along the boundary
through the mid morning, decreasing in intensity as the move to
the northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Current surface analysis shows a sfc low over central SD with an
inverted trough extended through Devils Lake...roughly aligned
with axis of a theta e ridge. QLCS is moving along the I 94
corridor between Bismarck and Dickinson, progged to be just west
of our FA by 1130Z pending possible acceleration of forward
propagation. While elevated convection, bowing nature of line of
storms indicating wind will be a significant threat as it
approaches SW ND. DCAPEs across southern ND are in the 1300 to
1500 range.  94 mph winds have been reported near Dickinson. Will
bring scattered showers into Valley City around 09Z, keeping POPs
lower north of Highway 2 although experimental HRRR does bring
highest POPs further north than radar trends. Expect to see
eastern ND begin to clear out in the afternoon with line of storms
exiting eastern zones by late afternoon.

For the early morning, there is also a cluster of storms (likely
severe) just north of the international border moving east
northeast and the strongest storms will remain in southern MB,
however will see isolated storms across northeastern ND in the
early morning hours.

SW flow pattern aloft with SFC high pressure over far
northeastern ND should limit precip across the northern FA.
However, a warm front across southeastern SD into southwestern MN
will lift north early Saturday morning with convection forming
across east central SD this evening. NAM dry with this system but
does bring precip across the north after 09Z with a short wave
moving out of eastern MT into the northern valley Sat morning. GFS
this evening shows more pronounced warm frontal boundary
stretching from SFC low over s central SD through Grant Co MN and
into Otter Tail Co, with convection significantly further north
than NAM shows. Northern two thirds of CWA is dry with northeast
SFC flow, however expands north into the Grand Forks and Thief
River Falls areas by 12Z. Deep layer shear in vcnty of sfc
boundary only in the 20 to 30 kt range with best shear well to the
west in central and western ND. Overall GFS better represents SREF
for tonight and will use model blend for overnight period. As
Scattered storms will increase from south to north on Saturday as
the boundary lifts northward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Saturday night into Sunday evening...A boundary along the
international border will be the focus for more convection as a SFC
low moves quickly across ND Sat night into Sun afternoon. Primary
threat for convection Sat night will be along and north of the
international border. Deep layer shear should be much higher (40
to 50 knots), mainly north of Hwy 2 along the boundary, and a few
strong or severe thunderstorms are possible mainly after midnight.
SPC Day 2 has a slight risk for northern tier of counties along
warm frontal boundary and Day 3 has a slight risk for storms
developing ahead of cold FROPA Sunday afternoon. NAM PWAT values
for the 06Z to 12Z timeframe continue to be in the 1.8 to 1.9 inch
range along the international border. HPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall
is in a slight risk for exceeding FFG late Sat night. Strong warm
advection into the warm sector on Sunday will result in daytime
highs in the 80s, close to 90 across the far south, with Monday
highs falling into the mid 70s behind Sunday's cold FROPA.
Clearing skies Monday night and cooler air will bring overnight
lows in the mid 50s.

Monday-Thursday...Northwest flow pattern will develop as mid/upper
ridging amplifies across the Rockies, leading to relatively dry
weather with seasonable temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Primary aviation concern this morning will be convection along a
surface boundary extending from NW Minnesota to the
southwest through Devils Lake. DVL will see morning convection
dissipating by late morning while GFK and TVF will see cells to
the north and northwest, with some storms over GFK possible by
13Z. FAR and BJI may see storms late in the afternoon but
confidence too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Expect VFR
conds outside of storms.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...High Wind Warning until 11 AM CDT this morning for NDZ016-027.

MN...High Wind Warning until 11 AM CDT this morning for MNZ001-007-
     008-013>015.

&&

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Makowski/Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
517 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
517 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY MORNING. THERE IS A
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
MORE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE THREAT IS MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPEICHER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1043 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     HAIL             WASKISH                 48.16N 94.51W
06/17/2016  E0.50 INCH       BELTRAMI           MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1054 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     HAIL             2 N WRIGHTSTOWN         46.30N 95.19W
06/17/2016  E1.00 INCH       OTTER TAIL         MN   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FALLING.

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1107 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW LAKOTA             47.98N 98.44W
06/17/2016                   NELSON             ND   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TRAILERS FLIPPED OVER AT NORTHERN VIEW CAMPGROUND ON THE
            NORTH SIDE OF STUMP LAKE

&&

JKAISER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1121 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     HAIL             4 S WADENA              46.38N 95.13W
06/17/2016  E1.00 INCH       WADENA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1149 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

MNZ030-031-171730-
EAST OTTER TAIL MN-WEST OTTER TAIL MN-
1149 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY UNTIL
1230 PM CDT...

AT 1148 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER VERGAS...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BIG MCDONALD LAKE AROUND 1150 AM CDT.
  DENT AROUND 1155 AM CDT.
  PERHAM AROUND 1205 PM CDT.
  NEW YORK MILLS AND BUTLER AROUND 1220 PM CDT.
  HILLVIEW AROUND 1230 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4646 9517 4647 9614 4671 9595 4671 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1648Z 269DEG 33KT 4663 9579

TG