Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
356 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Current surface analysis shows a sfc low over central SD with an
inverted trough extended through Devils Lake...roughly aligned
with axis of a theta e ridge. QLCS is moving along the I 94
corridor between Bismarck and Dickinson, progged to be just west
of our FA by 1130Z pending possible acceleration of forward
propagation. While elevated convection, bowing nature of line of
storms indicating wind will be a significant threat as it
approaches SW ND. DCAPEs across southern ND are in the 1300 to
1500 range.  94 mph winds have been reported near Dickinson. Will
bring scattered showers into Valley City around 09Z, keeping POPs
lower north of Highway 2 although experimental HRRR does bring
highest POPs further north than radar trends. Expect to see
eastern ND begin to clear out in the afternoon with line of storms
exiting eastern zones by late afternoon.

For the early morning, there is also a cluster of storms (likely
severe) just north of the international border moving east
northeast and the strongest storms will remain in southern MB,
however will see isolated storms across northeastern ND in the
early morning hours.

SW flow pattern aloft with SFC high pressure over far
northeastern ND should limit precip across the northern FA.
However, a warm front across southeastern SD into southwestern MN
will lift north early Saturday morning with convection forming
across east central SD this evening. NAM dry with this system but
does bring precip across the north after 09Z with a short wave
moving out of eastern MT into the northern valley Sat morning. GFS
this evening shows more pronounced warm frontal boundary
stretching from SFC low over s central SD through Grant Co MN and
into Otter Tail Co, with convection significantly further north
than NAM shows. Northern two thirds of CWA is dry with northeast
SFC flow, however expands north into the Grand Forks and Thief
River Falls areas by 12Z. Deep layer shear in vcnty of sfc
boundary only in the 20 to 30 kt range with best shear well to the
west in central and western ND. Overall GFS better represents SREF
for tonight and will use model blend for overnight period. As
Scattered storms will increase from south to north on Saturday as
the boundary lifts northward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Saturday night into Sunday evening...A boundary along the
international border will be the focus for more convection as a SFC
low moves quickly across ND Sat night into Sun afternoon. Primary
threat for convection Sat night will be along and north of the
international border. Deep layer shear should be much higher (40
to 50 knots), mainly north of Hwy 2 along the boundary, and a few
strong or severe thunderstorms are possible mainly after midnight.
SPC Day 2 has a slight risk for northern tier of counties along
warm frontal boundary and Day 3 has a slight risk for storms
developing ahead of cold FROPA Sunday afternoon. NAM PWAT values
for the 06Z to 12Z timeframe continue to be in the 1.8 to 1.9 inch
range along the international border. HPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall
is in a slight risk for exceeding FFG late Sat night. Strong warm
advection into the warm sector on Sunday will result in daytime
highs in the 80s, close to 90 across the far south, with Monday
highs falling into the mid 70s behind Sunday's cold FROPA.
Clearing skies Monday night and cooler air will bring overnight
lows in the mid 50s.

Monday-Thursday...Northwest flow pattern will develop as mid/upper
ridging amplifies across the Rockies, leading to relatively dry
weather with seasonable temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Light southeast winds across the area with just some scattered
cirrus now. Models try to develop some convection over the area
late tonight into early Friday, so they lower ceilings during this
time. With the uncertainty yet, did not mention thunder in any of
the TAFs, but will amend as needed. Winds look to stay fairly
light throughout.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Makowski/Speicher
AVIATION...Godon

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
547 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-171100-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
547 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS EVENING WILL SEE
THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
OVERNIGHT AS THEY REACH THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. THERE
IS A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT. MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS THREAT IS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CONTINUED ACTIVE PATTERN WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT THREAT FOR ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SATURDAY LATE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MAINLY FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.

DTR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
410 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NDZ007-008-171015-
PEMBINA ND-CAVALIER ND-
410 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PEMBINA AND EAST CENTRAL
CAVALIER COUNTIES UNTIL 515 AM CDT...

AT 409 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CONCRETE...OR 23 MILES EAST OF LANGDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  AKRA AROUND 415 AM CDT.
  BACKOO AROUND 420 AM CDT.
  CAVALIER AND LEROY AROUND 425 AM CDT.
  BATHGATE AROUND 435 AM CDT.
  NECHE AROUND 440 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4900 9723 4897 9724 4896 9723 4895 9723
      4856 9788 4871 9816 4900 9776
TIME...MOT...LOC 0909Z 228DEG 37KT 4878 9786

JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
412 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NDZ007-170930-
CAVALIER ND-
412 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CAVALIER COUNTY
UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 412 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
VANG...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LANGDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
CAVALIER COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4900 9795 4895 9795 4883 9819 4892 9838
      4900 9826
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 227DEG 37KT 4895 9818

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
414 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 AM     HAIL             7 NW CAVALIER           48.87N 97.73W
06/17/2016  M0.50 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
441 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     HAIL             CAVALIER                48.80N 97.62W
06/17/2016  E0.25 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
455 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

MNZ004-171030-
KITTSON MN-
455 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KITTSON COUNTY UNTIL
530 AM CDT...

AT 454 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LANCASTER...OR 44 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAFTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CARIBOU AROUND 520 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4896 9641 4875 9669 4886 9691 4900 9679
      4900 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0954Z 216DEG 27KT 4888 9674

JM