Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Grand Forks, ND

910 
WWUS53 KFGF 171217
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
717 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NDC005-171226-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-160617T1245Z/
BENSON ND-
717 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BENSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4815 9859 4830 9802 4792 9788 4785 9843
      4788 9845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 252DEG 38KT 4803 9827 

$$

NDC063-071-099-171245-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0031.000000T0000Z-160617T1245Z/
RAMSEY ND-WALSH ND-NELSON ND-
717 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN RAMSEY...SOUTHWESTERN WALSH AND NORTHERN NELSON
COUNTIES...

AT 716 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MAPES...OR 28
MILES EAST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MICHIGAN AROUND 725 AM CDT. 
  WHITMAN AROUND 730 AM CDT. 
  PETERSBURG AROUND 735 AM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4815 9859 4830 9802 4792 9788 4785 9843
      4788 9845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1216Z 252DEG 38KT 4803 9827 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

TG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
621 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Current radar showing three cells associated with storm what has
moved along the I 94 corridor throughout the night now moving into
western FA, with northernmost cell intensifying. Cells have been
moving along tight Theta e gradient and now shifting northeast
along the gradient. More development now beginning along SFC
trough from Kittson Co southwest into Devils Lake. Will increase
POPs for northeastern ND and far northwest MN. Per discussion with
SPC, cells are moving into shearless environment and further
eastward expansion of watch is not anticipated although there
certainly will be some strong to severe storms along the boundary
through the mid morning, decreasing in intensity as the move to
the northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Current surface analysis shows a sfc low over central SD with an
inverted trough extended through Devils Lake...roughly aligned
with axis of a theta e ridge. QLCS is moving along the I 94
corridor between Bismarck and Dickinson, progged to be just west
of our FA by 1130Z pending possible acceleration of forward
propagation. While elevated convection, bowing nature of line of
storms indicating wind will be a significant threat as it
approaches SW ND. DCAPEs across southern ND are in the 1300 to
1500 range.  94 mph winds have been reported near Dickinson. Will
bring scattered showers into Valley City around 09Z, keeping POPs
lower north of Highway 2 although experimental HRRR does bring
highest POPs further north than radar trends. Expect to see
eastern ND begin to clear out in the afternoon with line of storms
exiting eastern zones by late afternoon.

For the early morning, there is also a cluster of storms (likely
severe) just north of the international border moving east
northeast and the strongest storms will remain in southern MB,
however will see isolated storms across northeastern ND in the
early morning hours.

SW flow pattern aloft with SFC high pressure over far
northeastern ND should limit precip across the northern FA.
However, a warm front across southeastern SD into southwestern MN
will lift north early Saturday morning with convection forming
across east central SD this evening. NAM dry with this system but
does bring precip across the north after 09Z with a short wave
moving out of eastern MT into the northern valley Sat morning. GFS
this evening shows more pronounced warm frontal boundary
stretching from SFC low over s central SD through Grant Co MN and
into Otter Tail Co, with convection significantly further north
than NAM shows. Northern two thirds of CWA is dry with northeast
SFC flow, however expands north into the Grand Forks and Thief
River Falls areas by 12Z. Deep layer shear in vcnty of sfc
boundary only in the 20 to 30 kt range with best shear well to the
west in central and western ND. Overall GFS better represents SREF
for tonight and will use model blend for overnight period. As
Scattered storms will increase from south to north on Saturday as
the boundary lifts northward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Saturday night into Sunday evening...A boundary along the
international border will be the focus for more convection as a SFC
low moves quickly across ND Sat night into Sun afternoon. Primary
threat for convection Sat night will be along and north of the
international border. Deep layer shear should be much higher (40
to 50 knots), mainly north of Hwy 2 along the boundary, and a few
strong or severe thunderstorms are possible mainly after midnight.
SPC Day 2 has a slight risk for northern tier of counties along
warm frontal boundary and Day 3 has a slight risk for storms
developing ahead of cold FROPA Sunday afternoon. NAM PWAT values
for the 06Z to 12Z timeframe continue to be in the 1.8 to 1.9 inch
range along the international border. HPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall
is in a slight risk for exceeding FFG late Sat night. Strong warm
advection into the warm sector on Sunday will result in daytime
highs in the 80s, close to 90 across the far south, with Monday
highs falling into the mid 70s behind Sunday's cold FROPA.
Clearing skies Monday night and cooler air will bring overnight
lows in the mid 50s.

Monday-Thursday...Northwest flow pattern will develop as mid/upper
ridging amplifies across the Rockies, leading to relatively dry
weather with seasonable temps.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

Primary aviation concern this morning will be convection along a
surface boundary extending from NW Minnesota to the
southwest through Devils Lake. DVL will see morning convection
dissipating by late morning while GFK and TVF will see cells to
the north and northwest, with some storms over GFK possible by
13Z. FAR and BJI may see storms late in the afternoon but
confidence too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Expect VFR
conds outside of storms.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Makowski/Speicher
AVIATION...Speicher

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
517 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-181030-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
517 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY EARLY MORNING. THERE IS A
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
MORE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT FOR
NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS BEING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CONTINUATION OF AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE THREAT IS MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EAST OF THE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPEICHER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
412 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NDZ007-170930-
CAVALIER ND-
412 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CAVALIER COUNTY
UNTIL 430 AM CDT...

AT 412 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
VANG...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LANGDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
CAVALIER COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4900 9795 4895 9795 4883 9819 4892 9838
      4900 9826
TIME...MOT...LOC 0912Z 227DEG 37KT 4895 9818

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
414 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 AM     HAIL             7 NW CAVALIER           48.87N 97.73W
06/17/2016  M0.50 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
441 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 AM     HAIL             CAVALIER                48.80N 97.62W
06/17/2016  E0.25 INCH       PEMBINA            ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
455 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

MNZ004-171030-
KITTSON MN-
455 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KITTSON COUNTY UNTIL
530 AM CDT...

AT 454 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LANCASTER...OR 44 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRAFTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CARIBOU AROUND 520 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4896 9641 4875 9669 4886 9691 4900 9679
      4900 9640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0954Z 216DEG 27KT 4888 9674

JM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
624 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

NDZ026-027-171200-
NELSON ND-GRAND FORKS ND-
624 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GRAND FORKS AND
EASTERN NELSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

AT 624 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MCVILLE...OR 39 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KLOTEN AROUND 625 AM CDT.
  PETERSBURG AROUND 655 AM CDT.
  NIAGARA AROUND 700 AM CDT.

LAT...LON 4767 9817 4781 9834 4809 9810 4790 9765
TIME...MOT...LOC 1124Z 230DEG 29KT 4779 9817

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

MNZ006-171215-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-
640 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTY UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 639 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ANGLE INLET...OR 34 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROSEAU...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ANGLE INLET AROUND 700 AM CDT.
  PENASSE AND FLAG ISLAND AROUND 705 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.
DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4937 9513 4935 9507 4936 9501 4937 9499
      4937 9495 4933 9487 4932 9483 4903 9514
      4904 9516 4938 9515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1139Z 214DEG 32KT 4920 9521

JAM