Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 20, 2016Becker County, Clay County, Norman County, Minnesota; Cass County, Traill County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 20, 2016, 11:36 PM CDT for Becker County, Clay County, Norman County, Minnesota; Cass County, Traill County, North Dakota. It was in force for 39 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 20, 2016, 11:36 PM CDT (04:36 UTC)
Expired: Jul 21, 2016, 12:15 AM CDT
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Becker County, MN, Clay County, MN, Norman County, MN, Cass County, ND, Traill County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 21, 12:03 AM CDT	TSTM WND GST 69	3 Nnw Fargo, ND	PEAK WIND OF 60 KNOTS MEASURED AT THE FARGO AIRPORT /KFAR/.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 27 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 20, 8:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 281 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3010 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -225 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1893 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 41 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 104 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

164 
WUUS53 KFGF 210436
SVRFGF
MNC005-027-107-NDC017-097-210515-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0140.160721T0436Z-160721T0515Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN BECKER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHWESTERN NORMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
  NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...
  SOUTHEASTERN TRAILL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1135 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  GRANDIN...OR 29 MILES NORTH OF FARGO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GARDNER AROUND 1145 PM CDT. 
  ARGUSVILLE AND PERLEY AROUND 1150 PM CDT. 
  GEORGETOWN...HARWOOD AND BROOKTREE PARK AROUND 1155 PM CDT. 
  NORTHEASTERN FARGO...KRAGNES AND NORTH RIVER AROUND 1200 AM CDT. 
  OAKPORT AND MOORHEAD AROUND 1205 AM CDT. 

ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 103.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4742 9729 4738 9695 4718 9616 4689 9619
      4690 9743
TIME...MOT...LOC 0435Z 320DEG 49KT 4727 9705 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 20, 11:34 PM CDT, 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 20, 11:34 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

No sig changes to the fcts package. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 402
remians in effect for much of eastern ND and northwest MN through
3am cdt.

UPDATE Issued at 911 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Minimal update. Increased pops across northern two-thirds of CWA.
Severe Tstm Watch across most of CWA alg and north of Valley
City-Fargo-Park Rapids line thru 3am. Will expire Heat Advisory and
Warnings.

UPDATE Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northeast and east
central ND till 11pm... has been upgraded to a Tornado Watch for
the northern portions of the Watch area.

5pm analysis had in excess of 5000 j/kg of CAPE in the 0-2 km
subcloud layer over northcentral ND... with RUC12 showing this
expanding steadily eastward into northeast ND and far northwest MN
through 03z. in addition... 0-2km VGP /Vorticity Generation
Parameter/ approaches values of from .6 to .8 in that region...
which local research has shown to be quite conducive to rapid
tornadogenesis.

Meanwhile cloudmass over the central Red River Valley hasn't yet
dissipated... but cloudfree just west of the valley has rapidly
ramped up in heat and instability levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Forecast impacts in the short term will be temperatures and severe
threat.

For update adjusted heat headlines to account for cloud cover
limiting temperatures.

In spite of the slow dissipation of low level stratus across the
region holding temperatures down sufficient instability and cape
exist for severe potential. Timing of convective initiation still
somewhat uncertain however short wave lifting through Montana
likely to interact with boundary across NW-N central ND with
convection then propagating east tonight. In line with the SPC
outlook the favored area looks to be along and north of highway
200. Similar to last night large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threats. Weak surface boundary/cool front should be
through all but the east by morning. The far NW will be first to
feel cooler/drier air moving in behind boundary late tonight. The
remainder of the fa will see another muggy night.

Column cools a bit Thursday in wake of boundary passage but
remains mild. Lower dewpoints begin to move in from NW-SE. The
far south will likely remain warm and humid enough that some sort
of heat headline possible but at this point looks marginal. With
high pressure moving in anticipating a break in the stormy weather
and will keep forecast dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Friday-Wednesday...Main concern will be severe thunderstorm
potential Friday evening/overnight...and then again Saturday
afternoon/evening. Synoptically speaking...models are in good
agreement and indicate a stronger signal raising confidence that a
couple more severe (possibly significant) event will occur through
the early part of the weekend.  Confidence still low with details
(exact timing...exact threats and evolution).  Quieter weather on
tap to end the weekend heading into next week. Active weather again
looks possible by the middle of next week. Temperatures cooler
following the passage of a cold front on Saturday...more toward
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms with areas of MVFR cigs
and vsbys will persist across east cnetral ND and much of
northwest MN through the midnight and overnight period. Storms
should exit eastern ND FAR-GFK-TVF areas by 08z...and push out the
DTL-FSE-BJI areas through 11z. Expect mainly VFR conds across
eastern ND and the Red River Valley corridor on Thursday. in
Northwest MN...expect areas of MVFR cigs to persist thru 15z...
with VFR conds after 15z.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Gust

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 20, 3:55 AM CDT, 19 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

MNZ001>003-015-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ027-030-039-049-052-053-
210900-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-EAST POLK-MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-
WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-
WADENA-GRANT-GRAND FORKS-TRAILL-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS TIME MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MNZ004>009-013-014-016-017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-028-029-038-
054-210900-
KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-NORTH CLEARWATER-
SOUTH BELTRAMI-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-GRIGGS-STEELE-BARNES-
WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, THIS TIME MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 20, 9:10 PM CDT, 2 hours 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
910 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N BAKER               46.73N 96.57W
07/20/2016  M65 MPH          CLAY               MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED BY THE NDAWN SENSOR.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 20, 9:49 PM CDT, 1 hour 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     TSTM WND GST     HALLOCK                 48.77N 96.94W
07/20/2016  M83 MPH          KITTSON            MN   ASOS

&&

KNUTSVIG

Local storm report, Jul 20, 10:50 PM CDT, 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1050 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W BOWESMONT           48.69N 97.20W
07/20/2016  M53 MPH          PEMBINA            ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE RWIS ALONG INTERSTATE 29.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 20, 11:19 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NW TABOR              48.10N 96.89W
07/20/2016  M65.00 MPH       POLK               MN   MESONET

            PEAK WINDS MEASURED AT A PERSOANL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 20, 11:24 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1124 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW DONALDSON         48.56N 96.94W
07/20/2016  M51 MPH          KITTSON            MN   MESONET

            PEAK WINDS MEASURED AT THE RWIS SENSOR ALONG HWY 11.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 20, 11:35 PM CDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNE HILLSBORO         47.47N 97.02W
07/20/2016  M51 MPH          TRAILL             ND   MESONET

            PEAK WINDS MEASURED AT A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION.

&&

GGUST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 20, 9:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Roseau	59 min
Jul 20, 9:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Kittson, Lake of the Woods, Marshall, Roseau	61 min
Jul 20, 10:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	48 min
Jul 20, 11:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall, Polk	45 min
Jul 20, 11:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Marshall, Pennington	53 min
Jul 20, 11:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Norman, Polk	62 min
Jul 20, 11:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall, Pennington, Polk, Red Lake	41 min
Jul 20, 11:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Lake of the Woods	32 min
Jul 21, 12:00 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Norman	60 min
Jul 21, 12:03 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen, Norman and 1 more	57 min
Jul 21, 12:37 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Otter Tail, Wilkin	53 min
Jul 21, 12:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard, Otter Tail, Wadena	62 min
Jul 21, 1:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Clay, Grant, Otter Tail, Wadena, Wilkin	55 min
Jul 21, 2:14 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grant	46 min
Jul 21, 3:49 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Grant	56 min
Jul 20, 7:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Towner	50 min
Jul 20, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	49 min
Jul 20, 8:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Pembina	50 min
Jul 20, 8:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Towner	25 min
Jul 20, 8:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	46 min
Jul 20, 9:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner	50 min
Jul 20, 9:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy, Griggs, Nelson	64 min
Jul 20, 9:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Nelson, Ramsey	47 min
Jul 20, 9:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Eddy, Griggs, Nelson	32 min
Jul 20, 9:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Nelson, Walsh	46 min
Jul 20, 10:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Ramsey and 2 more	65 min
Jul 20, 11:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes, Cass, Griggs, Steele, Traill	53 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.