Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Grand Forks, ND

743 
WWUS53 KFGF 210441
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDC035-091-210451-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-160721T0515Z/
GRAND FORKS ND-STEELE ND-
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAND FORKS AND
EAST CENTRAL STEELE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...AND NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4718 9620 4741 9723 4778 9676 4773 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 285DEG 54KT 4773 9634 4730 9684 

$$

MNC107-119-NDC097-210515-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-160721T0515Z/
POLK MN-NORMAN MN-TRAILL ND-
1141 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN POLK...NORMAN AND NORTHEASTERN TRAILL COUNTIES...

AT 1141 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR DUGDALE TO NEAR HENDRUM...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MAPLE BAY AND DUGDALE AROUND 1145 PM CDT. 
  MENTOR AROUND 1150 PM CDT. 
  ADA AROUND 1155 PM CDT. 
  TWIN VALLEY AROUND 1205 AM CDT. 

ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 102 AND 112.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4718 9620 4741 9723 4778 9676 4773 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 285DEG 54KT 4773 9634 4730 9684 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
918 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Minimal update. Increased pops across northern two-thirds of CWA.
Severe Tstm Watch across most of CWA alg and north of Valley
City-Fargo-Park Rapids line thru 3am. Will expire Heat Advisory and
Warnings.

UPDATE Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northeast and east
central ND till 11pm... has been upgraded to a Tornado Watch for
the northern portions of the Watch area.

5pm analysis had in excess of 5000 j/kg of CAPE in the 0-2 km
subcloud layer over northcentral ND... with RUC12 showing this
expanding steadily eastward into northeast ND and far northwest MN
through 03z. in addition... 0-2km VGP /Vorticity Generation
Parameter/ approaches values of from .6 to .8 in that region...
which local research has shown to be quite conducive to rapid
tornadogenesis.

Meanwhile cloudmass over the central Red River Valley hasn't yet
dissipated... but cloudfree just west of the valley has rapidly
ramped up in heat and instability levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Forecast impacts in the short term will be temperatures and severe
threat.

For update adjusted heat headlines to account for cloud cover
limiting temperatures.

In spite of the slow dissipation of low level stratus across the
region holding temperatures down sufficient instability and cape
exist for severe potential. Timing of convective initiation still
somewhat uncertain however short wave lifting through Montana
likely to interact with boundary across NW-N central ND with
convection then propagating east tonight. In line with the SPC
outlook the favored area looks to be along and north of highway
200. Similar to last night large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threats. Weak surface boundary/cool front should be
through all but the east by morning. The far NW will be first to
feel cooler/drier air moving in behind boundary late tonight. The
remainder of the fa will see another muggy night.

Column cools a bit Thursday in wake of boundary passage but
remains mild. Lower dewpoints begin to move in from NW-SE. The
far south will likely remain warm and humid enough that some sort
of heat headline possible but at this point looks marginal. With
high pressure moving in anticipating a break in the stormy weather
and will keep forecast dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Friday-Wednesday...Main concern will be severe thunderstorm
potential Friday evening/overnight...and then again Saturday
afternoon/evening. Synoptically speaking...models are in good
agreement and indicate a stronger signal raising confidence that a
couple more severe (possibly significant) event will occur through
the early part of the weekend.  Confidence still low with details
(exact timing...exact threats and evolution).  Quieter weather on
tap to end the weekend heading into next week. Active weather again
looks possible by the middle of next week. Temperatures cooler
following the passage of a cold front on Saturday...more toward
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

MVFR cloud deck extends from the central Red River Valley int and
across northwest MN... with fair skies west and south. Expect
Areas of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop from central
and northcentral ND into central and northeast ND through 04z.
Thunderstorms should continue to develop into and across
northwest Minnesota during the overnight hours. Expect generally
fair skies alg and south of interstate 94 and Highway 10
corridors this evening and overnight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Gust

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

MNZ001>003-015-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ027-030-039-049-052-053-
210900-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-EAST POLK-MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-
WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-
WADENA-GRANT-GRAND FORKS-TRAILL-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS TIME MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MNZ004>009-013-014-016-017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-028-029-038-
054-210900-
KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-NORTH CLEARWATER-
SOUTH BELTRAMI-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-GRIGGS-STEELE-BARNES-
WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, THIS TIME MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
847 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     TSTM WND GST     LEEDS                   48.29N 99.44W
07/20/2016  E60 MPH          BENSON             ND   PUBLIC

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
858 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             2 N ROCKLAKE            48.82N 99.25W
07/20/2016  E1.00 INCH       TOWNER             ND   PUBLIC

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
900 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NNW ESMOND            48.14N 99.83W
07/20/2016                   BENSON             ND   CO-OP OBSERVER

            TREES UPROOTED. POWER OUTAGES.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
910 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N BAKER               46.73N 96.57W
07/20/2016  M65 MPH          CLAY               MN   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED BY THE NDAWN SENSOR.

&&

GGUST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
949 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     TSTM WND GST     HALLOCK                 48.77N 96.94W
07/20/2016  M83 MPH          KITTSON            MN   ASOS

&&

KNUTSVIG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1050 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W BOWESMONT           48.69N 97.20W
07/20/2016  M53 MPH          PEMBINA            ND   MESONET

            PEAK WIND MEASURED AT THE RWIS ALONG INTERSTATE 29.

&&

GGUST