Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Grand Forks, ND

115 
WWUS53 KFGF 210131
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
831 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

NDC005-071-210145-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0124.000000T0000Z-160721T0145Z/
RAMSEY ND-BENSON ND-
831 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN RAMSEY AND BENSON COUNTIES...

AT 830 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MINNEWAUKAN...OR 17 MILES WEST OF DEVILS LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 90
MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS...AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PENN AROUND 835 PM CDT. 
  LAKEWOOD PARK AND CAMP GRAFTON AROUND 840 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4837 9984 4837 9893 4786 9891 4793 9981
      4802 9981 4802 9985
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 274DEG 77KT 4814 9925 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

HOPKINS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
608 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of northeast and east
central ND till 11pm... has been upgraded to a Tornado Watch for
the northern portions of the Watch area.

5pm analysis had in excess of 5000 j/kg of CAPE in the 0-2 km
subcloud layer over northcentral ND... with RUC12 showing this
expanding steadily eastward into northeast ND and far northwest MN
through 03z. in addition... 0-2km VGP /Vorticity Generation
Parameter/ approaches values of from .6 to .8 in that region...
which local research has shown to be quite conducive to rapid
tornadogenesis.

Meanwhile cloudmass over the central Red River Valley hasn't yet
dissipated... but cloudfree just west of the valley has rapidly
ramped up in heat and instability levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Forecast impacts in the short term will be temperatures and severe
threat.

For update adjusted heat headlines to account for cloud cover
limiting temperatures.

In spite of the slow dissipation of low level stratus across the
region holding temperatures down sufficient instability and cape
exist for severe potential. Timing of convective initiation still
somewhat uncertain however short wave lifting through Montana
likely to interact with boundary across NW-N central ND with
convection then propagating east tonight. In line with the SPC
outlook the favored area looks to be along and north of highway
200. Similar to last night large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threats. Weak surface boundary/cool front should be
through all but the east by morning. The far NW will be first to
feel cooler/drier air moving in behind boundary late tonight. The
remainder of the fa will see another muggy night.

Column cools a bit Thursday in wake of boundary passage but
remains mild. Lower dewpoints begin to move in from NW-SE. The
far south will likely remain warm and humid enough that some sort
of heat headline possible but at this point looks marginal. With
high pressure moving in anticipating a break in the stormy weather
and will keep forecast dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Friday-Wednesday...Main concern will be severe thunderstorm
potential Friday evening/overnight...and then again Saturday
afternoon/evening. Synoptically speaking...models are in good
agreement and indicate a stronger signal raising confidence that a
couple more severe (possibly significant) event will occur through
the early part of the weekend.  Confidence still low with details
(exact timing...exact threats and evolution).  Quieter weather on
tap to end the weekend heading into next week. Active weather again
looks possible by the middle of next week. Temperatures cooler
following the passage of a cold front on Saturday...more toward
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

MVFR cloud deck extends from the central Red River Valley int and
across northwest MN... with fair skies west and south. Expect
Areas of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop from central
and northcentral ND into central and northeast ND through 04z.
Thunderstorms should continue to develop into and across
northwest Minnesota during the overnight hours. Expect generally
fair skies alg and south of interstate 94 and Highway 10
corridors this evening and overnight.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     NDZ028>030-038-039-049-052-053.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026-027-054.

MN...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ002-
     003-022-027>031-040.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001-004>009-
     013>017-023-024-032.

&&

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...Gust

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

MNZ001>003-015-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ027-030-039-049-052-053-
210900-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-EAST POLK-MAHNOMEN-SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-
WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-
WADENA-GRANT-GRAND FORKS-TRAILL-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM AND
HUMID. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS TIME MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MNZ004>009-013-014-016-017-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-028-029-038-
054-210900-
KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-
NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-NORTH CLEARWATER-
SOUTH BELTRAMI-TOWNER-CAVALIER-PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-GRIGGS-STEELE-BARNES-
WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
355 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING, DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, THIS TIME MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.