Alert archive / North Dakota / Tornado Watches in 2016

Tornado Watch 401

July 20, 201610 counties in North Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 20, 2016, 5:39 PM CDT for 10 counties in North Dakota. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 20, 2016, 5:39 PM CDT (22:39 UTC)
Expired
Jul 20, 2016, 10:59 PM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt

Counties Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, McHenry County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Towner County, ND, Ward County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 54 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

13 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 20, 5:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISMcHenry, Ward61 min
Jul 20, 6:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISMcHenry, Pierce63 min
Jul 20, 7:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISRolette44 min
Jul 20, 7:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFCavalier, Towner50 min
Jul 20, 7:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISMcHenry, Pierce64 min
Jul 20, 7:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBenson, Ramsey49 min
Jul 20, 8:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFCavalier, Pembina50 min
Jul 20, 8:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBISMcHenry, Pierce43 min
Jul 20, 8:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBenson, Ramsey46 min
Jul 20, 9:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFCavalier, Ramsey, Towner50 min
Jul 20, 9:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBenson, Eddy, Griggs, Nelson64 min
Jul 20, 9:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBenson, Nelson, Ramsey47 min
Jul 20, 10:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFGFBenson, Eddy, Grand Forks, Griggs, Nelson, Ramsey and 2 more65 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 199 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2016-07-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2285 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2016-07-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 27 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2285 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-286 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1417 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
205 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

800 
WWUS20 KWNS 202237
SEL1  
SPC WW 202237
NDZ000-210400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
540 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 540 PM
  UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
    MPH POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND OTHER STORMS
IN MANITOBA MAY ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BORDER. 
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF MINOT
NORTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 400...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.


...THOMPSON

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 19, 8:10 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCass, Grand Forks, Steele, Traill95 min
Jul 20, 3:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Emmons, Grant and 16 more92 min
Jul 20, 4:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Benson, Bottineau, Burke, Burleigh, Cavalier and 28 more8 hr
Jul 20, 5:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenson, Bottineau, McHenry, Pierce, Renville, Rolette and 2 more62 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Dakota, 2016Every tornado watch in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.