Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Bismarck, ND

August 10, 2016Dunn County, McKenzie County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 10, 2016, 4:45 PM MDT for Dunn County, McKenzie County, North Dakota. It was in force for 60 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 10, 2016, 4:45 PM MDT (22:45 UTC)
Expired: Aug 10, 2016, 5:45 PM MDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 2.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Dunn County, ND, McKenzie County, ND

The radar

The Minot AFB radar (KMBX), 187 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 10, 5:08 PM MDT	HAIL 1	5 Nw Oakdale, ND	.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 23 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1481 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -183 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

523 
WUUS53 KBIS 102245
SVRBIS
NDC025-053-102345-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0232.160810T2245Z-160810T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
545 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN DUNN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  SOUTHEASTERN MCKENZIE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT/545 PM MDT/

* AT 544 PM CDT/444 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF THEODORE ROOSEVELT NATIONAL PARK NORTH UNIT...OR
  20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WATFORD CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

  THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WERE FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS
WITH THIS STORM. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHEASTERN
MCKENZIE AND NORTHWESTERN DUNN COUNTIES.

  HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. 
           EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
           SIDING...AND VEHICLES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KILLDEER...DUNN CENTER...MANDAREE...LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK...
  THEODORE ROOSEVELT NATIONAL PARK NORTH UNIT...GRASSY BUTTE AND
  OAKDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4766 10335 4779 10261 4733 10248 4733 10345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 253DEG 18KT 4754 10311 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VINING

1 follow-up statement

228 
WWUS53 KBIS 102307
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
607 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

NDC025-053-102345-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0232.000000T0000Z-160810T2345Z/
DUNN ND-MCKENZIE ND-
607 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM
CDT/545 PM MDT/ FOR NORTHWESTERN DUNN AND SOUTHEASTERN MCKENZIE
COUNTIES...

AT 607 PM CDT/507 PM MDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11
MILES WEST OF LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK...OR 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KILLDEER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT HIGHWAY 22
IN DUNN COUNTY.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. 
         EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFS...
         SIDING...AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KILLDEER...DUNN CENTER...MANDAREE...LITTLE MISSOURI STATE PARK...
THEODORE ROOSEVELT NATIONAL PARK NORTH UNIT...
GRASSY BUTTE AND OAKDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4766 10335 4779 10261 4733 10248 4733 10345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 259DEG 16KT 4751 10299 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

VINING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 10, 1:59 PM MDT, 2 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 10, 1:59 PM MDT, 2 hours 46 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
259 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Convection rapidly developed late morning over our southeast
counties resulting in severe thunderstorm warnings and a flash
flood warning. Per coordination with SPC included Dickey county in
a severe thunderstorm watch, although activity has tapered off the
past hour. Storms have been elevated, north of the warm front and
supported by low level jet. Surface low is currently located over
western South Dakota, helping advect low level moisture over our
region. Current dewpoints range from low 60s northwest to
mid/upper 60s southeast. Main concerns for the forecast are
convective trends, both across the southeast, but also in
northwest and central, where high res models are developing
convection today and this evening. Latest HRRR brings storms into
the northwest by 22z. The SREF calibrated severe thunderstorm
probability output shows an enhanced probability of severe over
this area at 00z, while also showing a higher probability of severe
over south central ND this evening. These solutions, especially
over the northwest, seem reasonable with water vapor imagery
showing closed upper low over north central Montana with a short
wave rotating around the base toward eastern Montana.

Otherwise, should see a gradual decrease in activity overnight as
surface low reaches the eastern Dakotas by 12Z Thu, with some
lingering showers and thunderstorms possible east in the morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Overall, a drier pattern expected through the extended. Temps will
initially be cooler as the system currently affecting the area
passes to our east. Upper level ridge builds across the western
CONUS by the weekend, with the Northern Plains in northwest flow.
Highs will warm back to the 80s by Sunday, approaching 90 by
Monday across the west and south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

VFR conditions expected through the day, but IFR/MVFR is possible
at locations overnight as low pressure system crosses to our
south.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...JNS

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 10, 2:11 PM MDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
311 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-112015-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
311 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 /211 PM MDT WED AUG 10 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 10, 2:16 PM MDT, 2 hours 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
316 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 N NORTH LEMMON        46.02N 102.16W
08/09/2016  M81 MPH          ADAMS              ND   STORM CHASER

            ARB OBSERVER. DAVIS WEATHER SET

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

ZH

Local storm report, Aug 10, 2:17 PM MDT, 2 hours 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
317 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             5 N NORTH LEMMON        46.02N 102.16W
08/09/2016  E1.75 INCH       ADAMS              ND   PUBLIC

            ARB OBSERVER

&&

CORRECTED EVENT TIME

ZH

Local storm report, Aug 10, 2:26 PM MDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
326 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNE ASHLEY            46.11N 99.33W
08/10/2016  E60 MPH          MCINTOSH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SOME TREE DAMAGE... 3-5 INCH DIAMETER
            BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

ZH

Special weather statement, Aug 10, 3:11 PM MDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
411 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

NDZ037-102145-
STUTSMAN ND-
411 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL STUTSMAN COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 411 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JAMESTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JAMESTOWN...SPIRITWOOD LAKE...BUCHANAN...SPIRITWOOD...COURTENAY AND
ELDRIDGE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4684 9892 4699 9901 4727 9847 4698 9847
      4698 9844 4686 9844
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 239DEG 34KT 4697 9876

HARGROVE

Special weather statement, Aug 10, 3:25 PM MDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
425 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

NDZ017-031-032-102200-
MCKENZIE ND-BILLINGS ND-GOLDEN VALLEY ND-
425 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN GOLDEN VALLEY...
NORTHWESTERN BILLINGS AND SOUTH CENTRAL MCKENZIE COUNTIES UNTIL 500
PM CDT/400 PM MDT/...

AT 425 PM CDT/325 PM MDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES WEST OF GRASSY BUTTE...OR 32 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
WATFORD CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRASSY BUTTE.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4775 10345 4745 10310 4733 10310 4717 10367
      4731 10384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 236DEG 20KT 4738 10358

HARGROVE

Local storm report, Aug 10, 4:32 PM MDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
532 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0528 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 S GRASSY BUTTE       47.25N 103.25W
08/10/2016                   BILLINGS           ND   OTHER FEDERAL

            WATER COVERING HIGHWAY 85 SOUTH OF THE NORTH UNIT OF
            TRNP. ALSO DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL ALL OVER HIGHWAY 85.
            FROM RANGER AT NORTH UNIT OF TRNP

0528 PM     HAIL             10 S GRASSY BUTTE       47.25N 103.25W
08/10/2016  E0.75 INCH       BILLINGS           ND   OTHER FEDERAL

            WATER COVERING HIGHWAY 85 SOUTH OF THE NORTH UNIT OF
            TRNP. ALSO DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL ALL OVER HIGHWAY 85.
            FROM RANGER AT NORTH UNIT OF TRNP

&&

JVINING

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 9, 6:16 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Bowman, Slope	44 min
Aug 9, 6:36 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Bowman, Slope	54 min
Aug 9, 7:46 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Bowman	59 min
Aug 9, 8:18 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Emmons	27 min
Aug 9, 8:39 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Adams, Grant, Hettinger, Sioux	66 min
Aug 9, 9:02 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, Kidder, Logan	58 min
Aug 9, 9:40 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Grant, Sioux	49 min
Aug 9, 9:40 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Kidder, Stutsman	35 min
Aug 9, 10:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Emmons, McIntosh	62 min
Aug 9, 10:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Burleigh, Emmons, Grant, Kidder, Logan, Morton and 1 more	62 min
Aug 9, 11:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey, Emmons, Kidder, LaMoure, Logan, McIntosh and 1 more	63 min
Aug 10, 12:37 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey	53 min
Aug 10, 1:15 AM MDT	Areal Flood Advisory	BIS	Dickey, Emmons, McIntosh	6 hr
Aug 10, 3:13 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley	62 min
Aug 10, 9:44 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure, McIntosh	46 min
Aug 10, 10:30 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure	60 min
Aug 10, 10:40 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure	65 min
Aug 10, 10:53 AM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	BIS	Dickey, McIntosh	6 hr
Aug 10, 11:30 AM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dickey, LaMoure	60 min
Aug 10, 12:37 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Dickey	23 min
Aug 10, 3:11 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	Stutsman	34 min
Aug 10, 3:14 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	BIS	Dickey	8 hr
Aug 10, 3:25 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	BIS	McKenzie	35 min
Aug 10, 3:38 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie	67 min
Aug 10, 4:26 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	BIS	McKenzie	6 hr
Aug 10, 4:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Dunn, McKenzie	62 min
Aug 10, 5:42 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, Stark	63 min
Aug 10, 5:45 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie, McLean, Mountrail	60 min
Aug 10, 5:52 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	Dunn, Stark	23 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.