Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Bismarck, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
837 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

Storms continue to develop along the warm front tonight. So far
the most severe storms remain just south of the ND/SD border.
Short range models have been all over the place with the
convection tonight. However, recent runs seem to have a slightly
better grasp on what's happening across the region. Based on
current radar trends and short term models, storms are expected to
continue to develop along the ND/SD border and push east. Severe
storms are possible along the most southern tier of North Dakota
Counties, with the highest threat for substantial severe weather
just south of the border.

UPDATE Issued at 533 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of
southwest North Dakota. A warm front continues to push northward
toward the ND/SD border. Conditions are growing increasingly
unstable this evening along and just north of the front. Earlier
cloud cover and thunderstorm activity continues to erode, allowing
clearing and further destabilization. As the low level jet kicks
in and edges the front northward thunderstorm activity is expected
to develop and expand over the watch area. Initial storms may be
discrete supercells and will be capable of producing all types of
severe weather. As the night goes on a consolidation of storms is
expected, with the potential for a mesoscale convective complex
to form and push eastward along the front. Hail and high winds
would be the main threat with any such system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

Severe weather highlights the short term period. As has been
advertised for a few days, the timeframe for periods of severe
weather should initiate this evening and continue through
Wednesday evening. The southwest and south central remain as the
favored areas for severe weather tonight...then south central
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Latest water vapor imagery details a slow moving closed upper low
across western Idaho. Southwest flow ahead of this system has
embedded within in it a negatively tilted 700mb trough and surface
low pressure in southeastern Montana. A warm front was draped
across northern South Dakota and is forecast to remain . The
surface low is forecast to move along the warm front through
Wednesday producing periods of thunderstorms, some severe. The
highest threat for severe weather will be along and north of the
warm front which includes southwest and south central including
the James River Valley. Various solutions on the most unstable
cape and shear across the region. Believe the main trend of the
highest threat for severe weather remains in the southwest through
portions of south central. Not to say severe weather will not
occur farther north, but there should be less of a threat. The
700mb trough will slide into southwest and south central ND this
evening, with increasing coverage for showers and thunderstorms.
The 0-6km shear and most unstable cape aligns best in the
southwest between 00z- 06z, then shifts into south central 06z-12z
Wednesday. The 0-1km storm relative helicity looks greatest in the
southwest around 03z Wednesday. The thunderstorms will continue to
progress east overnight but last through mid morning Wednesday.
Another round of severe weather should be focused in south central
ND Wednesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the surface
low and inverted trough between Bismarck and Jamestown. Pockets of
heavier rainfall with an inch or two possible with any
thunderstorm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

Severe weather threat will diminish by 06z Thursday with the upper
low slowly shifting across southern Saskatchewan and into southern
Manitoba Thursday and Friday. A compensatory northwest flow of
drier air will take control, however, a couple of weak shortwaves
embedded within the northwest flow may develop a shower or two.
Northwest flow transitions to broad ridging over the weekend for a
dry period. The next shortwave trough shifts through Monday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms followed by drier
weather Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 829 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible with thunderstorms tonight and
tomorrow. KDIK/KBIS/KJMS are the terminals most likely to be
impacted by thunderstorms. Low stratus is possible in the wake of
storms late tonight. IFR cigs are possible beginning around 12z.
Thunderstorms are expected to continue around KJMS through much
of Wednesday.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1029 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NDZ001-009>012-017>023-025-031>035-110330-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-
OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-BURLEIGH-
1029 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 /929 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. PLEASE CALL THE BISMARCK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-247-0202 WITH YOUR REPORTS. YOU
CAN ALSO POST THEM VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

NDZ002>005-013-110330-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-PIERCE-
1029 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ036-037-040>048-050-051-110330-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1029 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 /929 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME MAY
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. PLEASE CALL THE BISMARCK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-247-0202 WITH YOUR REPORTS. YOU
CAN ALSO POST THEM VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1017 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     TSTM WND GST     HETTINGER               46.00N 102.64W
08/09/2016  M60 MPH          ADAMS              ND   ASOS

            .

&&

ZH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1128 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-100630-
MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-GRANT-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BEULAH...HAZEN...CENTER...GARRISON...
WASHBURN...UNDERWOOD...WILTON...TURTLE LAKE...MCCLUSKY...
GOODRICH...HARVEY...FESSENDEN...CARRINGTON...MANDAN...BISMARCK...
STEELE...TAPPEN...JAMESTOWN...ELGIN...CARSON...NEW LEIPZIG...
FORT YATES...SELFRIDGE...SOLEN...LINTON...STRASBURG...NAPOLEON...
GACKLE...LAMOURE...EDGELEY...KULM...WISHEK...ASHLEY...OAKES...
ELLENDALE
1128 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 /1028 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016/

...GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 55 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DIFFICULT DRIVING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES CAN BE EXPECTED.

NH/MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1117 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW LINCOLN           46.77N 100.75W
08/09/2016                   BURLEIGH           ND   ASOS

            ASOS STATION BISMARCK ND /BIS/.

&&

MM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1229 AM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 AM     TSTM WND GST     5 N LINTON              46.34N 100.23W
08/10/2016  M74 MPH          EMMONS             ND   MESONET

            NORTH DAKOTA STATE UNIVERSITY NDAWN OBSERVATION SITE.

&&

NHEINERT