Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Bismarck, ND

473 
WWUS53 KBIS 100152
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
752 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NDC001-011-100245-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-160810T0245Z/
BOWMAN ND-ADAMS ND-
752 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN BOWMAN AND WESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 752 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
SCRANTON...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWMAN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  REEDER AROUND 815 PM MDT. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
GASCOYNE...BUFFALO SPRINGS...BUCYRUS AND BOWMAN HALEY DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 10328 4620 10338 4628 10305 4628 10257
      4595 10245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 256DEG 23KT 4607 10314 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HARGROVE

505 
WWUS53 KBIS 100216
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
816 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NDC001-011-100245-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0216.000000T0000Z-160810T0245Z/
BOWMAN ND-ADAMS ND-
816 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT
FOR EASTERN BOWMAN AND WESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...

AT 816 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER REEDER...OR 15
MILES NORTHWEST OF HETTINGER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN BOWMAN AND WESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS: GASCOYNE...BUFFALO SPRINGS...BUCYRUS AND BOWMAN HALEY DAM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 10328 4623 10325 4628 10305 4628 10257
      4595 10245
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 256DEG 23KT 4611 10292 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HARGROVE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
837 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 829 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

Storms continue to develop along the warm front tonight. So far
the most severe storms remain just south of the ND/SD border.
Short range models have been all over the place with the
convection tonight. However, recent runs seem to have a slightly
better grasp on what's happening across the region. Based on
current radar trends and short term models, storms are expected to
continue to develop along the ND/SD border and push east. Severe
storms are possible along the most southern tier of North Dakota
Counties, with the highest threat for substantial severe weather
just south of the border.

UPDATE Issued at 533 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of
southwest North Dakota. A warm front continues to push northward
toward the ND/SD border. Conditions are growing increasingly
unstable this evening along and just north of the front. Earlier
cloud cover and thunderstorm activity continues to erode, allowing
clearing and further destabilization. As the low level jet kicks
in and edges the front northward thunderstorm activity is expected
to develop and expand over the watch area. Initial storms may be
discrete supercells and will be capable of producing all types of
severe weather. As the night goes on a consolidation of storms is
expected, with the potential for a mesoscale convective complex
to form and push eastward along the front. Hail and high winds
would be the main threat with any such system.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

Severe weather highlights the short term period. As has been
advertised for a few days, the timeframe for periods of severe
weather should initiate this evening and continue through
Wednesday evening. The southwest and south central remain as the
favored areas for severe weather tonight...then south central
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Latest water vapor imagery details a slow moving closed upper low
across western Idaho. Southwest flow ahead of this system has
embedded within in it a negatively tilted 700mb trough and surface
low pressure in southeastern Montana. A warm front was draped
across northern South Dakota and is forecast to remain . The
surface low is forecast to move along the warm front through
Wednesday producing periods of thunderstorms, some severe. The
highest threat for severe weather will be along and north of the
warm front which includes southwest and south central including
the James River Valley. Various solutions on the most unstable
cape and shear across the region. Believe the main trend of the
highest threat for severe weather remains in the southwest through
portions of south central. Not to say severe weather will not
occur farther north, but there should be less of a threat. The
700mb trough will slide into southwest and south central ND this
evening, with increasing coverage for showers and thunderstorms.
The 0-6km shear and most unstable cape aligns best in the
southwest between 00z- 06z, then shifts into south central 06z-12z
Wednesday. The 0-1km storm relative helicity looks greatest in the
southwest around 03z Wednesday. The thunderstorms will continue to
progress east overnight but last through mid morning Wednesday.
Another round of severe weather should be focused in south central
ND Wednesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of the surface
low and inverted trough between Bismarck and Jamestown. Pockets of
heavier rainfall with an inch or two possible with any
thunderstorm.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

Severe weather threat will diminish by 06z Thursday with the upper
low slowly shifting across southern Saskatchewan and into southern
Manitoba Thursday and Friday. A compensatory northwest flow of
drier air will take control, however, a couple of weak shortwaves
embedded within the northwest flow may develop a shower or two.
Northwest flow transitions to broad ridging over the weekend for a
dry period. The next shortwave trough shifts through Monday with
another round of showers and thunderstorms followed by drier
weather Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 829 PM CDT Tue Aug 9 2016

MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible with thunderstorms tonight and
tomorrow. KDIK/KBIS/KJMS are the terminals most likely to be
impacted by thunderstorms. Low stratus is possible in the wake of
storms late tonight. IFR cigs are possible beginning around 12z.
Thunderstorms are expected to continue around KJMS through much
of Wednesday.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AJ
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
525 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NDZ001-009>012-017>023-025-031>037-046>048-050-051-102230-
DIVIDE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-MCHENRY-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-
OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-
MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-
DICKEY-
525 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 /425 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. PLEASE CALL THE BISMARCK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-247-0202 WITH YOUR REPORTS. YOU
CAN ALSO POST THEM VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

NDZ002>005-013-102230-
BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-PIERCE-
525 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NDZ040>045-102230-
SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-
525 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016 /425 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/BISMARCK.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. PLEASE CALL THE BISMARCK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-800-247-0202 WITH YOUR REPORTS. YOU
CAN ALSO POST THEM VIA FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

AJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
616 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

NDZ031-040-043-044-100100-
ADAMS ND-GOLDEN VALLEY ND-SLOPE ND-BOWMAN ND-
616 PM MDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOWMAN...SLOPE...SOUTHWESTERN
GOLDEN VALLEY AND WESTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 616 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF MUD BUTTES...OR 24 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BAKER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOWMAN...AMIDON...SCRANTON...RHAME...REEDER...MARMARTH...
MUD BUTTES...GRIFFIN...GASCOYNE...PRETTY BUTTE...BUFFALO SPRINGS...
THREE V CROSSING...SUNSET BUTTE AND BOWMAN HALEY DAM.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4662 10405 4663 10293 4594 10290 4595 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 212DEG 58KT 4609 10395

JONES