Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Bismarck, ND

952 
WWUS53 KBIS 161923
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDC015-161931-
/O.CAN.KBIS.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-160716T2000Z/
BURLEIGH ND-
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BURLEIGH COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4668 9935 4677 10008 4698 10007 4698 10011
      4703 10012 4733 9990 4732 9889
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 270DEG 29KT 4731 9963 4689 9994 

$$

NDC043-093-162000-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-160716T2000Z/
KIDDER ND-STUTSMAN ND-
223 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR KIDDER AND WESTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES...

AT 221 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROBINSON TO NEAR STEELE...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STEELE...MEDINA...TAPPEN...TUTTLE...PETTIBONE...LAKE ISABEL...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...LAKE WILLIAMS...CHASE LAKE AND HORSEHEAD LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE IN THE WARNED AREA...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER
AND MOVE INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN
STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO
SAFE SHELTER NOW!  DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4668 9935 4677 10008 4698 10007 4698 10011
      4703 10012 4733 9990 4732 9889
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 270DEG 29KT 4731 9963 4689 9994 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SIMOSKO

692 
WWUS53 KBIS 161943
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
243 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDC043-093-162000-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-160716T2000Z/
KIDDER ND-STUTSMAN ND-
243 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL KIDDER AND WESTERN STUTSMAN COUNTIES...

AT 241 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF WOODWORTH TO NEAR DAWSON...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 240 PM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
         REPORTED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAPPEN. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MEDINA...TAPPEN...PETTIBONE...WOODWORTH...ROBINSON...LAKE ISABEL...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...LAKE WILLIAMS...CHASE LAKE AND HORSEHEAD LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

IF ON OR NEAR A LAKE...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE INDOORS OR
INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 15 MILES
FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW! DO
NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4668 9935 4683 10006 4699 10007 4710 9986
      4725 9964 4721 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 270DEG 29KT 4731 9940 4689 9971 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SIMOSKO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
123 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Update to issue Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390 until 7 pm CDT.

UPDATE Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Quick update for observed radar trends through 1715 UTC, blended
to the 13-15 UTC HRRR/HRRRX. See SPC Mesoscale Discussion #1297
for details.

UPDATE Issued at 834 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

The 09-12Z HRRR/HRRRX continue to support a potential increase in
convection across south central North Dakota by 17-18Z along the
inverted surface trough. Surface dewpoints are forecast to rise
into the lower to mid 60s leading to ML CAPE values around 2000
j/kg south central, within an environment characterized by deep
layer shear of 30-40 kts. Thus, supercells are possible with all
severe threats possible, including the potential of a tornado or
two given low LCLs and 0-1 km shear around 15-20kts. The 00Z SSEO
does has a 20 percent neighborhood probability of UH greater than
100 m2/s2 south central today, which would signal the potential
for a more organized severe weather event per local studies.

UPDATE Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

No changes required for this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Current surface analysis places low over north central Wyoming
while high remains over the midwest into the Great Lakes region.
Upper level analysis places Fujiwhara lows near northern Hudson
Bay while a compact low pushes along the international border near
the continental divide. Weak ridge remains over the area with
vigorous short wave pushing into western North Dakota from
Montana. This continues to produce a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms.

For today...morning showers/storms will continue to push to the
east-northeast this morning as suggested by latest high-res
guidance. With limited instability and shear to work with, storms
should remain on the tame side.

Later in the day is when the storms could get more interesting.
Upper low continues to slowly track to the east while the next
potent short wave ejects and gets wrapped into broad cyclonic flow
to the southeast of aforementioned Hudson Bay system. This will
result in the next round of showers and thunderstorms. Strongest
instability is expected to remain over South Dakota, though models
continue to show an area of ~2 kj/kg cape developing over southern
portions of the area. Still some question on how far north this
will develop with the fly in the ointment being the effect the
morning convection will have on this along with lingering cloud
cover and cooler temperatures to the north of a warm front. With
that said, the potential for severe weather remains, especially
given the increasing deep layer shear through the day into the
evening (50kt+ 0-6km bulk). Showers/storms will work towards the
east overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Chances for showers/thunderstorms will linger mainly over northern
locations where broad cyclonic flow remains to the southwest of
Hudson Bay system. Some additional showers/storms will be
possible in the evening over the southwest as another short wave
sneaks through the flow. Limited instability should keep storms on
the tame side.

Broad ridge builds into the area to start the upcoming work week
with a warming trend developing. Expect well above average
temperatures throughout the area by mid-week. Occasional weak
disturbances moving through the ridge will bring low chances for
thunderstorms to portions of the area from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Jul 16 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are likely across western and central
North Dakota today. Some storms may be severe across southern
North Dakota today with large hail, damaging winds and LIFR
conditions. KBIS and KJMS are at most risk to be impacted by
severe storms. MVFR/IFR fog and stratus are possible at KBIS and
KJMS late tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

NDZ018>020-031>037-040>048-050-051-171800-
DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-
KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-
LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /1148 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND A
TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017-021>023-025-171800-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-FOSTER-
1248 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016 /1148 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NEAR DAILY LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PJA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1204 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     HAIL             3 NE CROSS RANCH STATE  47.24N 100.96W
07/16/2016  E0.88 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY PEA SIZED HAIL AND GROUND WAS NEARLY
            COVERED IN HAIL.

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1226 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             3 ENE SANGER            47.20N 100.95W
07/16/2016  E1.00 INCH       MCLEAN             ND   PUBLIC

            .

&&

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
120 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     HAIL             2 SW BALDWIN            47.00N 100.78W
07/16/2016  M1.00 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO 60 MPH ESTIMATED WINDS.

&&

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
133 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             8 NW MENOKEN            46.90N 100.65W
07/16/2016  M0.50 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
140 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     WING                    47.14N 100.28W
07/16/2016  E60 MPH          BURLEIGH           ND   PUBLIC

            ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL WITH HEAVY RAIN.

&&

ZH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
158 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     HAIL             1 NE ARENA              47.14N 100.14W
07/16/2016  U1.00 INCH       BURLEIGH           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MOSTLY DIME SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW QUARTERS.
            LASTED 5 MINUTES... ESTIMATED 60 MPH GUSTS.

&&

ZH